Transcript Document

COMPILING QGDP OF THE
SERVICES SECTOR ACTIVITIES DATA SOURCES AND
METHODOLOGY
Ramesh Kolli
Additional Director General
Central Statistical Organisation, India
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DECISIONS TO BE TAKEN
BEFORE STARTING QNA
• GVA by industry and/or GDP
expenditures
• Compilation level
• Sources of data
• Method of compilation
• Current or constant prices first
• Release timeliness
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GVA by industry and/or
GDP expenditures
• In developing countries, it is easier to
produce production GDP
• Can also produce GDP expenditures, using
same sources of data (GFCF-construction
and output of services), and external sector
transactions
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Compilation level
• Assess the available data sources at as
disaggregated industry level as possible
– QNA estimates to be compiled at that level
– With computerization, the process should
not be time-consuming
• However, will be less detailed than annual
estimates
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Sources of data
• Same sources as those used in ANA
• Quarterly surveys/Admn. records
• Proxy indicators
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Sources
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Quarterly economy-wide enterprise surveys
Quarterly retail trade surveys
Quarterly labour force surveys
Tax data – disaggregated by industries
Quarterly financial results of companies
Government expenditures
Administrative data
Foreign trade
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Proxy indicators
• Can be several – which are closer to the reality?
– Index of industrial production
– Building materials for construction
– Service production/turnover index
– Labour input
– Sometimes even population data
– Quantity indicators
– Labor input
– Other input indicators (government)
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Method of compilation
• Current or constant prices first?
– Depending on source data being from
• enterprise surveys and financial results of corporations or
tax data or generally in nominal prices
– Current prices first and using a corresponding price index to
get constant prices
• Quantum or volume indicators – labour input, IIP,
production of building materials, agriculture production
– Constant prices first and use price indices as inflators to get
current price estimates
• Is there any systematic bias? – generally
upward
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Release timeliness
• Definitely before the end of next quarter
• Preferably 45 days
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Most common indicators for service
industries
• Wholesale and retail trade and hotels & restaurants
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Quarterly enterprise survey/retail trade survey-turnover
Quarterly financial results of corporations
Tax data – taxes collected from this industry
number of guest nights for establishments providing
accommodation
• India – extrapolating with
– Gross trading index for informal sector
– Deflated Quarterly financial results of corporations for others
– Sales of motor vehicles
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Railways
• Passenger kilometers
• Freight tonne kilometers
• Revenue earnings
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Other transport and storage
• Quarterly surveys/financial results
• Volume of transported goods
India
• Road
– Number of commercial vehicles on road and passenger kms
• Air
– Domestic and international passenger and freight kms
• Water
– Cargo handled in major ports
• Services
– Combined growth rates of above three
• Storage
– One fourth of annual forecast
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Communication
• Administrative data on number of telephone calls,
postal articles
– number of minutes of telephone service, number of
letters handled, number of telegram words, etc
• Quarterly financial results/enterprise surveys
• India
– Stock of telephone connections and postal revenue
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Banking and insurance
• Volume of loans and deposits
• Financial results
• Insurance premiums collected
• India
– Aggregated deposits and credits
– Net insurance premium collected for both life
and non-life
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Ownership of dwellings
• Stock of dwellings
• India
– Extrapolated stock of dwellings
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Real estate and business services
• Quarterly enterprise surveys/financial
results
• Labour input
• India
– Software companies – financial results
– Exports of software
– Quarterly financial results of companies
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Public administration and defence
• Government expenditures
• Labour input
• India
– Government revenue expenditures, excluding
interest payments
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Other services
• Expenditures on education and health
• Labour input
• Population growth
• India
– Extrapolated expenditures on education and health
– Population growth (some of the personal services)
– 1/4th of Annual extrapolations
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References
• System of National Accounts 1993
(http://unstats.un.org/unsd/sna1993/toctop.asp)
• IMF (2001): Quarterly National Accounts Manual—Concepts, Data
Sources, and Compilation
(http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/qna/2000/Textbook/)
• OECD (2001): Quarterly National Accounts: Sources And Methods
Used By OECD Member Countries
(http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/57/36/1909562.pdf)
• Francois Lequiller and Derek Blades, Organisation for Economic
Cooperation and Development (2006): Understanding National
Accounts
• Central Statistical Organisation (2007): National Accounts Statistics:
Sources and Methods (http://mospi.gov.in/mospi_cso_rept_pubn.htm)
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Thanks
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