Transcript Financial crisis has resulted in additional needs for information on

Short Term Indicators on African
Countries
Regional data needs arising from the
Financial crisis
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Measure the impact of the financial
crisis on African countries
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Track directly measurable indicators: Stock
exchange indices, exchange rate
movements, foreign exchange reserves,
commodity price changes, domestic credit,
capitalization of Banks
A weekly report prepared to follow-up
closely on available indicators
Regional data needs arising from the
Financial crisis(cont’d)
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Measure the impact of the economic crisis on
African countries
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GDP growth
Inflation
Fiscal balances
Current account balances
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Additional financing needs of African
countries
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Additional financing needs to achieve the
MDGs
Short-term forecasts - African Economic
Outlook model
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a short-term "neo-Keynesian" model for an open
economy
based upon a few behavioral equations of
macroeconomic agents and some structural income
and price equations.
aggregate demand determines GDP:
Model run in October 2008, Feb 2009, MAY 2009,
October 2009
 Take into account the changing world economic
environment
 Additional information from various sources
Short-term forecasts - African Economic
Outlook model (cont’d)
Short-term forecasts - African Economic
Outlook model (cont’d)
Short Term Indicators
High Frequency Data
 Necessity for accessing high frequency data
to track the actual performance of countries
 Identify leading indicators
 Put in place a Quarterly publication to track
high frequency data on selected indicators
affecting Africa (international, continental &
country level)
Availability of High Frequency data
from National sources
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Central Bank Web sites
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70% of the Central Bank web sites have
quarterly/monthly bulletin
Quality and content varies according to countries
Lag in the availability of these reports
Lag of about 6-12 months in the data availability
depending on indicators
Monetary and financial indicators, inflation,
external trade, BOP, prod indicators
Very few countries have quarterly national
accounts data
Data gaps remains a problem for regional
assessment
Availability of High Frequency data
from National sources
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National statistical offices web sites
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A few countries publish quarterly/monthly data
Very few countries have ‘Note de Conjoncture’ in
place that provides an overall picture in one
publication
Limited number of countries have in place a
system of quarterly accounts (South Africa,
Morocco, Tunisia, Botswana…)
Limited data on employment
Limited data on Industrial/Manufacturing Prod
indices & PPI
Lack of data to study impact on MDGs
Leading indicators for Africa
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GDP growth in Industrial countries & in
emerging countries
Inflation in Euro Zone and other industrial
countries
Growth in world Trade
Commodity prices
Monetary & financial indicators
Primary Commodities Prices Index
External Demand for Africa’s exports
Indeed, the index rose to 100.8 in august, almost around 100 (its
average value in 2005) indicating that external demand in volume
declined at a lower pace at around -16.1% over the whole eight first
months of 2009
Trends in World Trade - Baltic Dry Index
(*) The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) tracks worldwide international
shipping prices of various dry bulk cargoes carrying a range of
commodities including coal, iron ore and grain. It gives some
idications on the volume of global trade and is also seen as an
efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and
production.
Challenges & Way forward
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Develop a framework at the regional level for better tracking
Short term indicators
Improve Statistical Systems in African countries
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Track more closely short term indicators and improve upon data
quality
Improve the compilation & dissemination of basic statistics (IPI,
PPI…)
Identify leading indicators and put in place systems for tracking on
quarterly basis
Set up/improve the system of quarterly national accounts
Make use of Enterprise opinion surveys for short term outlook
Put in place a system of quarterly national accounts