Transcript Indicators for tracking the effect of the economic crisis on

Indicators for tracking the effect of the economic
crisis on pharmaceutical consumption
The Asian Financial Crisis in 1997/8 demonstrates
the potential impact on access to medicines
Real GDP (LCU)
Drug Consumption (SU)
(Q2 ’97=1)
1.4
(Q2 ’97=1)
1.4
1.3
1.3
Korea
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
Thailand
Thailand
Indonesia
Indonesia
1.0
1.0
0.9
Korea
0.9
0.8
0.0
0.0
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
-4
-2
0
2
4
# of Quarters
•
2
8
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
# of Quarters
Q0 = Q2 ’97
Source: ????
6
Q0 = Q2 ’97
Source: IMS Midas
The WHO, in collaboration with IMS, has established
a programme to monitor the current impact
• 83 countries, approximately 81% of global population,
quarterly reports
• Impact on expenditure (Leading indicators)
− Total expenditure
− Average price per unit of volume
• Impact on consumption (Lagging indicator)
− Total volume
− Volume of acute and chronic medicines
− Movement to or from original and licensed branded medicines
•
3
Earliest indicators suggest first signs of economic
impact
Note: Canada, Puerto Rica, USA, Uruguay (Public)
Netherlands, Australia and New Zealand have all had price
declines in at least three quarters since start of 2008 until
end of Q1 2009 when compared to the same quarter a
year previously.
•
4
Volume indicators also beginning to show signs of
worsening
•
5
Conclusions
• No firm evidence of a negative impact except perhaps in
Estonia and the private sector in Russia
• So far countries seem to have absorbed the moderate price
increases without a loss in medicine consumption
• Confident that the data collection methods and the analytic
tools available will enable us to detect significant changes as
soon as they occur
• When such changes are detected, governments have a range
of policy instruments to alleviate the situation
•
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