Transcript S4.3 - United Nations Statistics Division

National Statistics Institute of Chile: NSI CHILE
National Statistics Institute of Chile: Official
Short Term Indicators
“Reflection of Economic Reality”
OUTLINE: NSI Chile
•
Short Term Economic Activity Indicators: national representativeness
NSI Chile measures monthly levels (quantities) of production and real sales of the following economic sectors:
Mining (Copper), Commerce, Manufacturing, Supermarkets (Food products, beverages and tobacco),
Electricity, gas and water supply, construction and agriculture (planting intentions).
This way we can closely observe any change of trend in the series and calculate monthly, annual and
accumulated variations.
•
Consumer Index Price
Make an effort to update the basket which measures the price index
The price index is an essential input for monetary and fiscal policy
The price index is essential to deflate nominal values, which measure sales
Include ICT prices in the measurement( Software, Computing equipment, Communications equipment)
•
National Employment Survey: 9 economic sectors
NSI Chile measures monthly labor market and it is a household survey. Measures unemployment and number
of employed by economic activity. It has national and regional representativeness
•
Regional Economic Activity Indicators
This is a quarterly Laspeyres index that measures trend of economic activity in the various geographical
divisions of the country called regions.
Short Term Economic Activity Indicators:
national representativeness
• Short-term economic sectoral indicators help to visualize the trend in
these sectors and hence the national economy.
• It is very important to measure Manufacturing Industry, Commerce
and Services, Construction, Electricity Generation and Capital
Services.
• Have production and sales indicators of those economic sectors and
products that represent a high percentage of GDP.( to assess the
level of dependence of the economy on the external sector)
• Econometric and /or ad hoc statistics methodology to
deseasonalizing time series and predict short-term figures. (For
example, X-12 Arima Modeling, Local Calendar)
Short Term Economic Activity Indicators:
national representativeness
Comparability of Rapid Estimates
•
Consistency between official statistical indicators and other statistics public
source.
•
Define measurement frequency of indicators: monthly, quarterly, biannually.
•
Define acceptable values of optimal coefficients of variation; set ranges to
make them (estimates) comparable.
•
Set or define equal basis periods to all countries and for each indicator or
estimate.
•
The sample size must be representative to national level
•
Define level of openness of measurement: ISIC Rev.3 2, 3 or 4 digits
-1,0
-3,0
I 98
I 99
II 99
Trimestres
I 09
-8,08
IV 08
III 08
II 08
I 08
IV 07
III 07
II 07
I 07
IV 06
III 06
II 06
I 06
IV 05
III 05
II 05
Quarters
I 05
IV 04
III 04
II 04
I 04
IV 03
III 03
-10,00
II 03
I 03
IV 02
15,00
10,00
5,00
-8,66
ELECTRICITY GENERATION & GDP (Quarters Variation)
Trimestres I_1998 - I_2009
Variaciones Trimestres Año Anterior
PIB y Generación Eléctrica
11,0
Generación Eléctrica
7,0
PIB
5,0
3,0
1,0
0,00
-10,00
-5,00
I 09
IV 08
III 08
II 08
I 08
IV 07
III 07
II 07
I 07
IV 06
III 06
II 06
I 06
IV 05
III 05
II 05
I 05
IV 04
III 04
II 04
I 04
IV 03
III 03
II 03
I 03
IV 02
Manufacturing_Variation
II 02
15,00
III 02
GDP_Variation
I 02
IV 01
III 01
II 01
I 01
IV 00
III 00
II 00
I 00
IV 99
III 99
II 99
I 99
IV 98
III 98
II 98
Quarters Variations
(the same quarter of last year)
I 98
IV 97
III 97
30,00
II 97
GDP & METAL MINING
I 97
Percentages
GDP_Variation
III 02
Metal_Mining_Variation
II 02
I 02
IV 01
9,0
III 01
II 01
I 01
IV 00
III 00
II 00
I 00
IV 99
III 99
Percentage
35,00
IV 98
III 98
I 91
II 91
III 91
IV 91
I 92
II 92
III 92
IV 92
I 93
II 93
III 93
IV 93
I 94
II 94
III 94
IV 94
I 95
II 95
III 95
IV 95
I 96
II 96
III 96
IV 96
I 97
II 97
III 97
IV 97
I 98
II 98
III 98
IV 98
I 99
II 99
III 99
IV 99
I 00
II 00
III 00
IV 00
I 01
II 01
III 01
IV 01
I 02
II 02
III 02
IV 02
I 03
II 03
III 03
IV 03
I 04
II 04
III 04
IV 04
I 05
II 05
III 05
IV 05
I 06
II 06
III 06
IV 06
I 07
II 07
III 07
IV 07
I 08
II 08
III 08
IV 08
I 09
0,00
II 98
Porcentajes
MINING & GDP (Quarters Variation)
MANUFACTURING & GDP (Quarters variation)
GDP & MANUFACTURING
(the sam e quarter of last year)
Quarter variations
10,00
25,00
20,00
5,00
Quarters
-7,02
-5,00
-9,12
-15,00
-15,00
SUPERMARKET REAL SALES & GDP (Quarters Variation)
National Employment Survey
• Chile measures 9 economic sectors by Mobile quarters:
Agriculture, hunting and fishing; Commerce;
Construction; Mining and quarrying; Electricity, gas and
water supply; Transport and communications; Financial
Services; Other community, social and personal
services, Manufacturing.
• In terms of employment create an econometric model
that allows capturing the lag or time delays the shock
affect the real economy. That is, how much time passes
from that decreases the production in a sector of the
economy to decline employment or the number of
employees in that sector.
National Employment Survey
• This will anticipate future shocks and help to create better
adjustment mechanisms, labor policies of wage flexibility and better
government programs.
• Lift information about man-hours actually worked in order to
measure labor productivity in different economic sectors
differentiated by sex, age group and abilities (identify vulnerable
groups)
• Labor inputs
Number of persons engaged (thousands)
Number of employees (thousands)
Total hours worked by persons engaged (millions)
Total hours worked by employees (millions)
For Example:
Hours worked by high / medium / low-skilled male / female persons
aged 15-29 / 30-49 / 50 and over
Regional Economic Activity Indicators
• Measuring economic activity in different regions
or states in the country to identify vulnerabilities,
and capture economic growth and trends of
each activity within each region.
• In Chile this indicator is quarterly and is useful
information for potential investors.
• It is a very good instrument of public policy and
helps create economic measures with the needs
of each region.