Transcript 2.3 - United Nations Statistics Division

Survey Flow Processes: Econstats
Example:
Using Quarterly Financial Statistics Survey (QFS) :
Private Sector
Kriss Govinden
Seminar on Developing a programme for the
implementation of the
2008 SNA and supporting statistics
17-19 October 2012
Pretoria, South Africa
1
The focus of this presentation will be on the
Quarterly Financial Statistics survey.
Similar processes / procedures are followed
for other surveys within Economics
Statistics.
2
Contents
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
g.
h.
i.
j.
k.
l.
Background
Work flow chart / value chain
Sampling Process
Users
Data Processing
Statistical Release
Estimates
Key findings
Data confrontation
Revisions
Improvements
Limitations
3
Background 1/4
1. Selected Financial Information requested:



Income and expenditure
Inventories
Capital expenditure
2. Sample Size about 5000, majority large enterprises
3. Measures overall economic activity of enterprises
operating in the SA economy
4
Background 2/4
1. Published with a quarter lag
* March in June
* June in September
* September in December
* December on March
2. Less detail than the Annual Financial Statistics (AFS) survey
3. Sample changes annually (Size group 1 has highest level of overlap)
4. Turnover is used as the measure of size
5
Background 3/4
Government
statistics
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas
and water
Mining and
quarrying
Construction
Community,
social and
personal
services
Real estate and
other business
services
Financial
intermediation,
and insurance
Trade
Quarterly
Financial
Statistics
Transport,
storage and
communication
6
Background 4/4
Scope and Coverage
SIC Industry
Levels
2
Mining & quarrying
4 digits
3
Manufacturing
3 digits
4
Electricity, gas and water
2 digits (41 & 42)
5
Construction
1 digit
61
Wholesale trade
2 digits: 61
62
Retail trade
2 digits: 62
63
Motor trade
2 digits: 63
64
Accommodation trade
2 digits: 64
7
Transport
2 digits
8
Business services
2 digits: 83, 84, 85, 86, 87 and 88
9
Community, social & personal services
2 digits: 93, 94, 95, 96 and 99
7
Work flow chart / value chain 1/2
Government
priorities &
legal
framework
Operating
manual
SIC
Business
register
SDLC
Check list
Plan
Estimation
Programs
from M & E
Financial
resources
Human
resources
IT resources
Sample
SDI
Finance
Programme
Office & MIS
HRM
IT
Output
Quarterly Financial Statistics survey process
Input
Stats SA’s
strategic plan
(themes and
objectives)
Quarterly Financial Statistics (QFS) value chain
Plan the
survey
Determine
Stakeholder
needs
Determine data
collection
methods and
instruments
Determine data
items to be
collected
Determine
Sampling Frame,
sample size
Determine data
collection and
processing
systems
Marketing
National
Accounts
Trade and
Industry
M&E
Programme
Office & MIS
SARB
Design&
Development
Tabulation Plan
Systems design
and
documentation
Data
Collection
Questionnaire
printing, dispatch
and follow ups
Checking and
editing
completed
questionnaires
Collect and
follow up
System
implementing
Mark-off on the
SMS
Capturing and
editing
Sample design
Staff recruitment
Staff training
Questionnaire
design
Progress reports
and monitor
progress
Documentation
M&E
HCD
IT
HRM
National
Accounts
Completing
questionnaires
from financial
statements
Quality checking
Design, develop
and test analysis
systems
Resources
Processing
Analysis
Implement
analysis systems
on raw data
Compile final
tables and
graphs
Evaluate and
validate
Compile key
findings
Run the
estimates and
imputations
Quality checking:
Data
confrontation
with other survey
areas:Manufacturing,
wholesale and
retail,local gvnt
Documentation
Documentation
Regional and
provincial
offices
Systems of
Registers
IT
SIS (Printing &
Distribution)
Compile
Publication
and products
Notes and
glossary
Questionnair
e
Statistical
Release
containing
private
sector
statistics by
industry
Compile CDs
Capturing
systems
Analysis
systems
Updated
SMS system
Electronic
products
IT
ADAPT
Planning
Policy
Makers
Decision
Making
Governance
Economic
Growth
Empower
Staff
Stats SA
Credibility
Documentation
Government
M&E
Trade and
Industry
Employment
Stats
Provincial
Government
component
Impact on:
Documents
Quality checking
Approval by
managers and
Q&M
Outcome
M & E and
external
consultants
Executive
managers
Financial Stats
managers
DDG
SIS
National
Accounts
Users &
Researchers
M&E
SARB
International
Community
Stats SA
Government
Staff
Stats SA
users
8
Work flow chart / value chain 2/2
Input
Stats SA’s
strategic
themes and
objectives
Government
priorities &
legal
framework
Budget
Quarterly Financial Statistics (QFS) value chain
Quarterly Financial Statistics survey process
Dissemination
Print the release
Evaluate &
review
Evaluate process
Output
Statistical
Release
containing
private
sector
statistics by
industry
Outcome
Impact on:
Policy
Makers
Decision
Making
Governance
Press conference
Revise
documentation
Electronic
products
Post to the Web
Finalise MIS
Distribute hard
copies to regular
users
Attending to queries
Economic
Growth
Stats SA
Credibility
Staff
performance
evaluation
Plan
Compile or
review Operating
Manual
Financial
resources
Human
resources
IT resources
SDI
Finance
Programme
Office & MIS
HRM
IT
SIS (Printing &
Distribution)
Programme
Office & MIS
National
Accounts
International
Community
SG Support
(Communication)
HRM
M&E
Programme
Office & MIS
DDG
Researchers
Stats SA
Reserve
Bank
Government
Staff
Stats SA
users
9
Sampling Process
Business Sampling
Frame
Containing updated
information
(monthly VAT
updates)
Snapshot
Snapshot analysis
and inputs
Common Main
Frame
Financial
Frame
According to
specifications
Annual
Samples
Estimates on
National Level
10
Users: Internal
Internal users:
Uses:
1.
National accounts
a. Compilation of supply use tables
b. Identify trends
c. QFS is the only source of
quarterly financial data
d. Information on capital formation
e. Used to complement or
compensate for other data sources
2.
Other internal users
Quarterly employment
statistics
a.
b.
c.
Data confrontation
Sectoral analyses
Financial analyses
11
Users: External
External users:
Uses:
1. SARB
a. Information on capital formation
2. Government
a. Monitoring
b. Policy making
c. National Treasury
3. Researchers
a. Macro-economic forecasting
b. Industry analysis e.g. SA German Chamber of
Commerce
4. Respondents
a. Aveng Africa Ltd (formerly Grinaker LTA) –
Evaluation of industry performance
b. Kellogg SA – Identify trends and performance of
other industries
c. SA Breweries and Unilever SA – Evaluation of
market share
5. Other users
a. Universities
12
Data Processing
Quality Checks
Data confrontation
Data validation
Various
Data cleaning
Data analysis
Statistical
Release
Quality Checks
and
data validation
+
13
Statistical Release
1. Key findings
2. Data comparisons
3. Estimates on industry levels
4. Selected ratios
5. Explanatory and technical notes
6. Glossary
14
Estimates 1/3
1 . Estimates presented on one digit SIC levels
Quarter ended
Change
between
quarters
ended
R million
Item
June
2011
September
2011
December
2011
March
June
2012
2012
Year on
year change
between
March 2012
and
June 2012
June 2011
and
June 2012
Income items
Turnover received
110 604
113 739
125 525
508
2 232
1 666
1 484
1 868
1 333
2 709
1 376
1 043
328
833
391
389
792
403
464
Royalties, franchise fees, copyright, trade names
and patent rights received
83
11
17
17
26
9
-57
Rental/leasing of land, buildings and other
structures received
19
17
14
17
16
-1
-3
218
632
337
167
131
-36
-87
Profit on assets/investment sold or revalued
2 199
4 648
3 922
3 982
3 489
-493
1 290
Other income
4 695
3 281
2 925
2 386
2 478
92
-2 217
Total income
119 812
124 645
134 999
120 619 122 477
1 858
2 665
Interest received
Dividends received
Hiring/leasing of plant, machinery, vehicles and
other equipment received
112 328 112 836
15
Estimates 2/3
2 . Estimates presented on small, medium and large levels
All industries
Item
Large
Medium
Small
Total
Range for classification of small, medium and large enterprises based
on Turnover. Source: National Small Business Amendment Bill DTI 2003
Income items
Turnover
939 119
126 765
316 256
1 382 140
Interest
7 827
472
930
9 229
Dividends
4 799
46
40
4 885
996
9
240
1 245
Rental/leasing of land, buildings and other structures received
1 478
93
1 170
2 741
Hiring/leasing of plant, machinery, vehicles and other equipment
received
1 937
261
900
3 098
Profit on assets/investment sold or revalued
7 840
600
719
9 159
Other income
16 974
2 167
2 389
21 530
Total income
980 970
130 413
322 644
1 434 027
Royalties, franchise fees, copyright, trade names and trade and patent
rights
16
Estimates 3/3
3 . Estimates available on lower SIC levels
Category
MINING OF COAL AND LIGNITE
Turnover
Sales
Services
Interest
29 351
28 044
1 307
403
2 846
2 841
5
163
MINING OF GOLD AND
URANIUM ORE
15 111
14 982
129
113
2410
17 020
15 773
1 247
49
2421
3 181
2 934
247
50
2422
2 110
2 110
0
5
2423
2 418
2 418
0
288
2424
26 102
26 071
31
257
2429
1 358
1 260
98
41
2511
186
186
0
1
2512
258
243
15
1
2519
1 369
1 312
58
7
EXTRACTION OF CRUDE
PETROLEUM
17
Key findings 1/7
The total turnover of all industries for the second quarter of 2012 was estimated at
R1 586 641 million (R1,59 trillion), an increase of 2,7% compared with the revised
first quarter of 2012 (R1 545 094 million or R1,55 trillion).
Increases
1.
Electricity, gas and water, +20.8%, (R6 165 million);
2.
Construction, +7.8%, (R4 813 million);
3.
Trade, +2.7%, (R14 701 million);
4.
Manufacturing, +2.3%, (R11 170 million);
5.
Transport, storage and communication, +2.2%, (R3 092 million);
6.
Real estate and other business services (excluding financial intermediation and
insurance), +1.5%, (R2 135 million); and
7.
Mining and Quarrying, +0.5%, (R508 million).
Decreases
1.
Community, social and personal services (excluding government institutions),
-2.4%, (R1 037 million).
18
Key findings 2/7
Comparison of turnover by industry
19
Key findings 3/7
Comparison of turnover by industry for the quarters ended March 2012 and June 2012
20
Key findings 4/7
Comparison of turnover by industry for the quarters ended June 2011 and June 2012
21
Key findings 5/7
Quarterly turnover estimate for all industries
22
Key findings 6/7
Comparing ratios between March 2012 and June 2012
Industry
Interest coverage ratio (Net profit
Before interest and income tax
Expenses/Interest expenses)
March
2012
June
2012
Inventory turnover ratio
(Turnover/Closing stocks)
March
2011
June
2012
Mining and Quarrying
7,46
8,54
2,14
1,96
Manufacturing
7,17
6,95
1,90
1,95
Electricity, gas and water
0,79
4,18
2,96
3,55
Construction
2,67
4,64
9,18
9,34
Trade
6,34
5,91
2,58
2,67
Transport, storage and communication
4,82
5,28
10,90
10,08
Real estate and other business services
2,90
3,73
15,08
15,28
Community, social and personal services
9,51
5,67
16,53
15,86
All industries
4,93
5,54
2,78
2,83
23
Key findings 7/7
Comparing ratios between March 2012 and June 2012
•
Improvement in the interest coverage between June and March 2012
reflects a positive signal that enterprises have generated more revenue
during the June 2012 to satisfy their interest obligation.
•
The increase in turnover ratio indicates that inventory effectively
generated more turnover during the June 2012 quarter as compared to
the March 2012 quarter (inventory movement is starting to improve
between the June and March 2012 quarters).
24
Data confrontation
Data confrontation
The following sources were used to verify or confront data:
1.
Monthly surveys – mining (including correspondence with Department of
Minerals and Energy), manufacturing, electricity and trade industries
2.
Previous published quarters of the QFS
3.
GDP
4.
Salaries and wages variable with QES data
5.
Media reports
6.
Financial statements
7.
Internet
25
Revisions
Major reasons for revisions in previous quarter’s estimates
1.
Late submission of the data.
2.
Revised information received.
3.
Changes in weights (design weights and non-response).
4.
IFRS adjustments made to previously received data.
26
Improvements
YEAR
2011
&
2012
PUBLICATION
IMPROVEMENTS
PUBLISHED
TIMEFRAME
Sample size: about 5000
1.
Quarterly
Quarter lag
More detailed SIC
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Estimates of small, medium and
large enterprises.
Extensive improvement to the
clearance document and QFS
processes.
On-going provision of flash
estimates to National Accounts at
75% response rate.
Publication of employment cost.
Parallel Sample.
Flash estimates to national account
and South African Reserve Bank at
65% response rate.
Collection, processing and
publication of the new sample.
Interaction with SARB.
Interaction with the GDP
Expenditure team.
Actual values to South African
Reserve Bank on overlapping units.
27
Limitations
1.
Not covering the whole economy (excludes agriculture, hunting, fishing and
forestry, financial intermediation, insurance and pension funding and
government institutions).
2.
Not activity based but industry based.
3.
No regional estimates available.
4.
Structure of enterprises can vary.
5.
BSF challenges including: duplication; classification; weights.
28
Thank You
Questions?
29