Transcript Open - The Scottish Government

Scottish National Accounts Project (SNAP)
An update on Developments
Andrew Mortimer
outline
• Background to the Scottish National
Accounts Project (SNAP)
• The Quarterly Supply-Use (QSU)
framework
– Overview of the framework and relationship to
existing stats and the new ones
• New quarterly publication
• The next 12 months…
SNAP Project Overview
Two main strands:
• Building on the annual Input-Output framework
for Scotland to produce more up to date
estimates of income, expenditure and production
GDP in value terms;
• Use a range of data sources and the quarterly
UK National Accounts to produce a range of
consistent quarterly economic indicators for
Scotland.
New indicators
(income and expenditure)
Over the past year, OCEA have made some significant progress in the early
stages of compiling an experimental set of National Accounts for Scotland. The
following points are the main achievements:
• experimental quarterly estimates of Household Final Consumption
Expenditure for Scotland (this combines EFS data with National
Accounts HHFCE data to proxy HHFCE for Scotland;
• cash value estimates of manufacturing exports on a quarterly
basis. This is consistent with the Index of Manufactured Exports
series;
• experimental quarterly GDP figures (income based) in current
prices. These figures are quarterly, but benchmarked to the annual
Regional Accounts GVA estimates, with adjustments for taxes less
subsidies on production and products derived from the GERS
analysis;
• various analyses of the Scottish elements of UK economic statistics
are also provided on the SNAP website if used as a component part
of the SNAP analysis.
Quarterly Supply and Use framework
Quarterly Supply-Use (QSU) system
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the core of SNAP;
Completely integrated with other economic statistics;
Allows discrepancies to be identified between
disparate datasets (data confrontation);
The key tool to ensure consistency and quality of new
indicators (and reduce scale of revisions)
Four versions of the QSU system developed so far:
1.
2.
3.
4.
limited trial of producing current price GDP(O) in monetary values
Quarterly forecasted supply-Use tables from latest IO year (2004)
onwards
Extension of quarterly time-series 1998-present, fully benchmarked to
detailed annual components
Current version – incorporation of independent estimates of income and
expenditure components and re-balancing the quarterly tables
SNAP publication
Structure of the first publication
Consistency with other estimates
• Entirely consistent with published supply
and use tables 1998-2007
• Consistent with benchmarked GDP(O) in
constant basic prices estimates
• Consistent with IME (short-term)
• Consistent with UKEA where appropriate
Tables 1 and 2
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Total Output at basic prices
•
Total intermediate consumption at purchasers' prices
•
Gross Value Added (GVA) in Current Basic Prices
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of which, GVA by industry
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Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
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Mining and Quarrying
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Manufacturing
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Electricity, Gas and Water supply
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Construction
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Services
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Taxes, less Subsidies, on Products
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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Current Market Prices
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SA and NSA
Tables 3,4 and 5
• As before but Constant prices
– Including net product taxes and GDP at
market prices
• Chained volume indices
• Quarterly growth rates
• Implied deflators
Tables 6 and 7
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Compensation of Employees
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Gross Operating Surplus
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Gross Value Added at factor cost
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Taxes, less subsidies, on production
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Gross Value Added at basic prices
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Taxes, less subsidies, on products
•
Gross Domestic Product at current market prices
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SA and NSA
Tables 8 and 9
•Households Final Consumption Expenditure
•Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households
•Expenditure by non-domestic households
•Central Government
•Local Government
•Gross Capital Formation (inc. valuables and inventories)
•Exports to the Rest of the UK
•Exports to the Rest of the World
Possibly collapse?
•Imports from the Rest of the UK
•Imports from the Rest of the World
•Gross Domestic Product at current market prices
•SA and NSA
Additional Tables
• Compensation of Employees breakdown:
– employment data by industry
– CoE per FTE employee
– CoE by industry
• Detailed Household expenditure (13
COICOP categories)
• Alternative valuations of GDP including
shares of extra-Regio
• Quarterly Scottish public sector revenues
Public Sector revenues
• Consistent with GERS estimates
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Taxes on income and wealth
National insurance contributions
Taxes on production and imports
Other current taxes
Taxes on capital
Gross operating surplus
Rent and other current transfers
Interest and dividends from private sector and abroad
Total current non North Sea revenue
North Sea revenue (per capita share)
North Sea revenue (geographical share)
Total current revenue (including North Sea per capita share)
Total current revenue (including North Sea geographical share)
What happens next?
• Next 12 months
– Publish 4 quarterly editions of the SNAP publication as
experimental statistics / data in development;
– Seek feedback, comments and suggestions from expert users –
possibly establishing a short-term working group to steer
developments;
– Attempt to gain National Statistics accreditation
• Even longer term?
– Constant price estimates:
• double-deflated supply use tables?
• Revised benchmarking of existing GDP(o) to DD/SUTs
• Simultaneous balancing of current and constant price QSUs – the
Dutch approach – probably a step too far?
– Model-based regional GVA estimates for Scottish LAs?
– GNI and other National Accounts data
SNAP website
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/snap