Transcript Open - The Scottish Government

Scottish National Accounts Project
(SNAP)
Andrew Mortimer
SNAP team
Presentation outline
• Background to the Scottish National Accounts
Project (SNAP)
• New quarterly indicators
– Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HHFCE)
– GDP(I)
– Basic price to Market price adjustment (Net Product
taxes)
– Quarterly manufactured exports
• The Quarterly Supply-Use (QSU) framework
– Brief overview of the framework
• Consultation
Why SNAP? (1)
• Improve consistency between existing
statistics
– Quarterly GDP
– GERS
– Global Connections
– Index of Manufactured Exports
– Input-Output (Supply & use)
Supply & Use tables
EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICS - estimated Scottish combined use matrix (Aggregate, 2008Q4)
commodity/ industry
Agricultu
re,
forestry
& fishing
Mining
Transpor Finance
Energy
Distributi
t&
and
Manufact
and
Construc on &
commun busines
uring
water
tion
catering ication
s
Public
admin
etc.
Educatio
n, health
GFCF/val
and
Intermed Househ
uables/i
social
Other
iate
olds/NPI General nventorie Exports_ Exports_
Total
work
services demand
SH
Govt.
s
RUK
RoW demand
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
161
Mining
0
Manufacturing
257
Energy and water
11
Construction
15
Distribution & catering
8
Transport & communication
36
Finance and business
87
Public admin etc.
1
Education, health and social work 10
Other services
7
Intermediate demand
594
0
40
88
16
96
9
66
157
2
3
7
484
303
373
3,223
327
40
26
236
584
10
19
41
5,182
0
294
172
757
28
7
16
101
1
4
6
1,386
4
54
537
5
884
22
21
351
4
3
3
1,888
66
2
512
36
29
114
458
901
3
14
25
2,159
0
4
382
23
55
68
921
540
19
26
41
2,077
1
1
619
50
309
140
899
4,360
182
163
131
6,855
0
1
814
40
158
50
151
576
10
89
95
1,983
3
0
483
36
21
42
94
293
0
513
47
1,532
1
1
145
17
17
20
75
411
2
29
503
1,219
540
770
7,232
1,317
1,651
505
2,974
8,360
233
873
906
25,360
Net prod tax
CoE
GOS
GVA
-26
138
223
335
4
158
28
189
62
2,264
1,064
3,390
44
186
385
615
13
948
642
1,603
164
2,258
1,169
3,591
28
1,319
615
1,961
69
3,189
3,605
6,864
0
1,252
379
1,631
2
3,405
412
3,819
28
839
581
1,448
387
15,956
9,103
25,446
Gross Output @ bp
929
674
8,572
2,002
3,491
5,750
4,038
13,718
3,613
5,351
2,668
50,806
279
7,652
402
119
2,352
1,343
3,721
44
959
1,278
18,148
3,308
3,475
353
7,136
19
13
1,323
0
1,928
9
34
535
25
0
66
3,954
264
104
4,130
490
400
161
670
3,556
0
187
539
10,500
129
36
2,954
12
29
28
165
948
0
34
44
4,379
• an ideal framework to enforce consistency between disparate data sources
• But...
• Calendar year only;
• Heavily lagged
1,230
923
23,291
2,222
4,127
3,055
5,187
17,119
3,610
5,527
3,187
69,477
Why SNAP (2)
• Improve quality (triangulation)
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
0.0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
20.0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Why SNAP (3)
• Meet users’ needs
– Improve the range of economic statistics
• Significant gaps in our understanding of the Scottish
economy (e.g. final demand markets)
• Existing measures useful but requires expansion (SESCG
views / Council of economic advisers)
– Cash value GDP,
– accelerate production of input-output tables
– Price indices
– GERS review acted as a catalyst
• Primary data supplemented by Model-based estimates
SNAP Project Overview
In summary:
• Use a range of data sources and the quarterly
UK National Accounts to produce a range of
consistent quarterly economic indicators for
Scotland.
• Building on the annual Input-Output framework
for Scotland to produce more up to date
estimates of income, expenditure and production
GDP in value terms;
New indicators
(income and expenditure)
• Statistics in development (not national statistics)
– Household Final Consumption Expenditure for Scotland (this combines EFS data
with National Accounts HHFCE data to proxy HHFCE for Scotland;
– Gross Disposable Household Income;
– Cash value estimates of manufacturing exports on a quarterly basis (consistent
with the Index of Manufactured Exports series);
– Quarterly GDP figures (income based) in current prices. These figures are
quarterly, but benchmarked to the annual Regional Accounts GVA estimates;
– various analyses of the Scottish elements of UK economic statistics are also
provided on the SNAP website if used as a component part of the SNAP analysis.
•
Currently in development are new indicators for:
– Stocks and inventories
– General Government Final Consumption Expenditure
– Tourist Expenditure
Quarterly Supply-Use (QSU) system
•
•
•
Evolving into the core of SNAP;
Allows discrepancies to be identified between
disparate datasets (output/income/expenditure);
The key tool to ensure consistency and quality of new
indicators (and reduce scale of revisions);
Recent developments
•
As of yesterday, the system now incorporates - and
balances - the new indicators whilst enforcing cell-bycell consistency with the published annual InputOutput publication;
•
A great deal more work to do (particularly on the
balancing front);
•
Aiming for release of first-draft balanced estimates by
end-year
Comparison of experimental estimates of GVA from the income and output approaches
Not Seasonally Adjusted
30000
GVA (£million)
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year / Quarter
GDP(I)
QSU_benchmarked
2006
2007
2008
2009
www.scotland.gov.uk/snap