Transcript Open - The Scottish Government

SNAP
Sandy Stewart
SNAP - Overview
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Introduction and background comments
Strands of Project
Components of Project
Experimental nature of project – use of
web for dissemination of ideas
• Project management
Karen Dunnell
Measuring the UK economy 2008
Achieving coherence is a particularly difficult challenge, and
the attempt to improve coherence as more information
becomes available is a significant reason for longer-term
revisions. Achieving greater coherence within, and
between, economic statistics is a bit like trying to do a
jigsaw:
• without the overall picture on the box to guide you, and
• without having all the pieces
Indeed not only do you not have the picture, the picture itself
changes as we compile it. Bits of the jigsaw are changed
until we have a picture which makes economic sense.
Jim & Margaret
Cuthbert
But more generally, GERS concentrates only on government
expenditures and revenues. We need to move the debate on. We
need to have a much better understanding of the full picture of the
key financial flows into and out of the Scottish economy. This would
involve setting up an integrated set of accounts showing trade flows,
(both non-oil, and oil related): and flows of private capital. This
broader picture would give a much clearer indication of the scope for
manoeuvre which would be open to a Scottish government as it
moved towards Scottish independence, and would really transform
the current rather sterile level of debate on whether Scotland could
go it on its own. It is to be hoped that the Scottish government builds
on the current good progress that has been made in developing
GERS by moving forward towards the production of a proper set of
National Accounts.
Opening up the books on the true state of Scottish finances
Cuthbert, M., Cuthbert, J.R.: Sunday Herald, 22nd June, 2008.
Hervey Gibson
Conclusion in Note to SESCG – October 2007:
• Accept short term GDP for what it is
• Speed up production of balanced IO tables –
perhaps not tied cravenly to UK regional
accounts
• Supplement ABI with own data
• Need to work on Scottish price indices
• Need an outward looking and theoretical review
to GDP/GNI – rather than the introspective and
practical approach that didn’t work last time.
Project Overview
Two main strands:
• Building on the annual Input-Output framework
for Scotland to produce more up to date
estimates of income, expenditure and production
GDP in value terms;
• Use quarterly UK National Accounts and other
data sources to produce a range of consistent
quarterly economic indicators for Scotland.
SNAP Components
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GDP/GVA
Input-Output
Government Expenditure and Revenue
Macro-economic estimates
Trade
Investment
Prices
Component - 1
GDP
• GDP(O) – presented as short-term index
only
• GDP(E) – present component estimates
as produced
• GDP(I) – work more closely with ONS to
improve quality of regional accounts.
• Consider balanced estimates
unconstrained to any of the above
Component - 2
Input-Output
• Move to consistent tables over time –
publication of multi-year balance 19982004 early next year.
• Update all changes through time – e.g.
reclassifications, FISIM, alignment with UK
National Accounts.
• Quarterly updates of GDP weights.
• Anchoring GDP to I-O system.
Component – 3
Government Expenditure and Revenue
• Revenue estimates to be calculated
quarterly
– Financial year estimates for GERS
– Calendar year estimates for Annual Accounts
• More comprehensive analysis of COINS
database – linking expenditure to budgets,
HMT funding
Component – 4
Macro-economic estimates
• Revisit GVA, GDP and GNI estimates
• More modelling
– taxation analysis
– use of PIMs and WGA to evaluate capital
consumption for Scotland
• Focus on other economic indicators in
system – GDHI per capita – better
measure of economic welfare
• New indicators – Household Savings Ratio
Component – 5
Trade
• Incorporate GCS and IME into one system
• Research into flows between onshore
Scotland and the Continental Shelf.
• Balance of Trade?
Component – 6
Investment
• Very limited information available for
Scotland
• Consider Supply-side estimates of
Scottish investment
• Surveys – of capital goods suppliers, - of
capital goods purchasers
• Commodity Flows Modelling.
Component – 7
Prices
• Assess quality of UK PPIs for Scotland
• More distinction between export and
domestic prices
• Double deflation using the I-O framework
– use of input and output prices
• Calculation of implied GDP deflators for
Scotland
• Consider consumer price indices for
Scotland.
Management of Project
• Key staff: Sandy Stewart, Andrew
Mortimer, Deborah Pegg, Kenny Grant
• National Accounts Branch – incorporating
GERS
• Working Group – open to SESCG
members to contribute
• Martin Kellaway – Special Adviser