Transcript Open - The Scottish Government

Calculation of Quarterly
Household Final Consumption Expenditure
Estimates for Scotland
Kenny Grant
Overview
• GDP(E)
–
–
–
–
Households
Non-Profit Institutions
General Government
Gross Capital Formation
• HHFCE contributes > 60% towards GDP(E)
• Consumer Trends
–
–
–
–
–
Current prices, Chained volume measure, Implied deflators
Unadjusted and adjusted for seasonality
Yearly
Quarterly
12 COICOP categories + Net Tourism
Sources
•
Expenditure & Food Survey
–
–
–
–
–
–
Yearly publication from ONS
Scottish and UK expenditure
>280 individual recordings of expenditure
3 year moving average
2002/03 – 2004/05, 2007
FES 1998/99, 1999/00
Fo o d & no n-alco ho
drinks
A lco ho lic drink,
to bacco & narco tics
60.00
Clo thing & fo o twear
50.00
Ho using (net)1, fuel &
po wer
40.00
Ho useho ld go o ds &
services
Health
30.00
Transpo rt
20.00
Co mmunicatio n
10.00
Recreatio n & culture
0.00
Educatio n
19
98
/9
9
19
99
/0
0
20
00
/0
1
20
01
/0
2
20
02
/0
20 3
03
/0
4
20
04
/0
5
20
05
/0
6
20
06
/0
7
20
07
/0
8
Weekly Average Household Expenditure (£)
70.00
Year
Restaurants & ho tel
M iscellaneo us go o d
& services
Sources
Consumer Trends
•
•
•
•
Current Prices
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly Data
12 COICOP + Net Tourism
Household Figures
•
•
Scottish Mid-Year Estimates/Projections
- GRO
UK Mid-Year Estimates/Projections
- Communities.gov.uk
Assumptions
• Scottish % Hotels & Catering used to apportion UK Net
Tourism Expenditure for Scotland
• Difference in EFS and National Accounts breakdown
from COICOP beyond top 12
– Imputed Rental
– Life Insurance
(4. Housing)
(12. Miscellaneous)
Methodology
• EFS financial year series created from 1998/99 to 2007/08
– Scotland and UK
– 12 COICOP level
• Scottish household proportions for each year for each COICOP
=
Scottish average weekly expenditure
X
# Scottish Households
• Divided by UK equivalent
• = Scottish % of UK HHFCE
Methodology
• Convert financial year Scottish Proportions to a quarterly series
– Cubic Splines
• UK National Accounts data
X
Scottish % of UK expenditure
=
Quarterly Scottish HHFCE
– (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
• Seasonally adjusted series
– X-12-ARIMA
– Comparable series to UK national Accounts
– All series showed signs of seasonality and were adjusted (except
Education)
800
40
0
19
98
19 Q1
98
19 Q3
99
19 Q1
99
20 Q3
00
20 Q1
00
20 Q3
01
20 Q1
01
20 Q3
02
20 Q1
02
20 Q3
03
20 Q1
03
20 Q3
04
20 Q1
04
20 Q3
05
20 Q1
05
20 Q3
06
20 Q1
06
20 Q3
07
20 Q1
07
20 Q3
08
20 Q1
08
Q3
19
98
19 Q1
98
19 Q3
99
19 Q1
99
20 Q3
00
20 Q1
00
20 Q3
01
20 Q1
01
20 Q3
02
20 Q1
02
20 Q3
03
20 Q1
03
20 Q3
04
20 Q1
04
20 Q3
05
20 Q1
05
20 Q3
06
20 Q1
06
20 Q3
07
20 Q1
07
20 Q3
08
20 Q1
08
Q3
1200
180
140
19
98
19 Q1
98
19 Q3
99
19 Q1
99
20 Q3
00
20 Q1
00
20 Q3
01
20 Q1
01
20 Q3
02
20 Q1
02
20 Q3
03
20 Q1
03
20 Q3
04
20 Q1
04
20 Q3
05
20 Q1
05
20 Q3
06
20 Q1
06
20 Q3
07
20 Q1
07
20 Q3
08
20 Q1
08
Q
3
19
98
19 Q1
98
19 Q3
99
19 Q1
99
20 Q3
00
20 Q1
00
20 Q3
01
20 Q1
01
20 Q3
02
20 Q1
02
20 Q3
03
20 Q1
03
20 Q3
04
20 Q1
04
20 Q3
05
20 Q1
05
20 Q3
06
20 Q1
06
20 Q3
07
20 Q1
07
20 Q3
08
20 Q1
08
Q
3
Clothing & Footwear
Transport
1600
3500
1400
3000
2500
1000
Expenditure
2000
SA
Expenditure
1500
SA
600
400
1000
200
500
0
0
Education
Restaurants & Hotels
2500
160
2000
120
100
1500
80
Expenditure
Expenditure
SA
60
1000
500
20
0
Results
• Series of 6 tables
–
–
–
–
–
–
Scottish HHFCE
UK HHFCE
Scottish Proportions of UK HHFCE
Scottish HHFCE (Seasonally Adjusted)
UK HHFCE (Seasonally Adjusted)
Scottish Proportions of UK HHFCE (Seasonally Adjusted)
– Calendar year
– Financial year
– Quarterly
Future Work
• Updates
– Quarterly National Accounts (Consumer Trends)
– EFS
– Household Estimates/Projections
• COICOP Breakdown
– Individual goods and services
– Imputed Rentals / Life Insurance
• Net Tourism
Calculation of Quarterly
Household Final Consumption Expenditure
Estimates for Scotland
Kenny Grant