Transcript Changes to household estimates in Blue Book 2015

Changes to household estimates
in Blue Book 2015
Household Accounts Development
Overview
• Why do we have revisions?
• Size of revisions
• Overview of each methodological change
Why change?
• ESA 1995 changes to ensure comparability in
measuring Gross National Income (GNI)
across European Union (EU) countries, and,
• Other changes to meet user needs.
Annual HHFCE level revisions
1.4%
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Three main drivers of revisions
£, million
15000
10000
Total revisions to HHFCE
5000
Evasion/ Under-coverage
Cross Border Property
Income
0
1997
2000
2005
2010
-5000
NPISH
-10000
2013
Change in annual HHFCE growth rates
7.5%
6.5%
2015 Quarter 1
Blue Book 15
5.5%
4.5%
3.5%
2.5%
1.5%
0.5%
-0.5%
-1.5%
-2.5%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Exhaustiveness Revisions
£, million
6,000
5,000
Evasion
4,000
3,000
Undercoverage
2,000
1,000
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Exhaustiveness - Concealed income/
activity
• Replaces existing National Accounts
concealed income/activity model
• New model based in part on HMRC Tax Gaps
data
• Coherence adjustments are made during
balancing to bring this measure into
alignment with GDP(P) and GDP(I).
Exhaustiveness - Under-coverage of
unincorporated small businesses
• Enterprises falling below the Value Added Tax
(VAT) and/or Pay As You Earn (PAYE)
thresholds, are not recorded on the InterDepartmental Business Register (IDBR).
• Estimates of missing production by these
updated using more recent administrative
data provided by HMRC.
NPISH improvements - Revisions
1997
0
£, million
-1,000
-2,000
-3,000
-4,000
-5,000
-6,000
-7,000
-8,000
-9,000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
NPISH improvements
• Review of the potential overlap between
NCVO data and existing National Accounts
production data from the ABS that has led to
a reduction in HHFCE
• Assessment of the new offsetting revisions
used to align the three approaches to
measuring GDP in the Supply has brought
about a further reduction in HHFCE.
Revisions linked to rental data
£, million
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
Cross Border Property
Income
2,500
CPIH
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Cross Border Property Income
• Reviewed the recording of imputed rental for
• UK residents owning second homes abroad and
• foreign residents owning second homes in the UK.
• Changes have;
• Decreased HHFCE via Inward imputed rental
• Increased HHFCE via Outward imputed rental
Improvements to actual and imputed
housing rentals - CPIH
• Revisions to maintain alignment in annual
growth with CPIH
• CPIH - a measure of consumer price inflation
that includes Owner Occupiers’ Housing
costs (OOH).
Revisions due to Narcotic Drugs,
Alcohol & Tobacco
£, million
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Alcohol & Tobacco
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-500
Narcotic Drugs
-1,000
-1,500
-2,000
2011
2012
2013
Alcohol/Tobacco & Illegal Drugs
• Removal of adjustments affecting;
• COICOP 02.1, Alcohol, and
• COICOP 02.2, Tobacco.
• Narcotics data, COICOP 2.3, introduced for
the first time in Blue Book 2014
• Correction in BB15 converting dollars to
sterling for growth in street prices of narcotics
Other revisions
£, million
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1997
-1000
-2000
-3000
-4000
-5000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Any
questions?