Transcript PPT

Seminar on the Implementation of
2008 SNA
Kampala Dec 10-11, 2013
Developing a programme for the implementation of the 2008
SNA & supporting Statistics
Oliver Chinganya
Statistical Capacity Building
Stats Dept. African Dev. Bank
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Outline
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Introduction
Key findings
GDP revisions
Base years
Bank Program to support countries
Way Forward
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Introduction
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Concerns were raised in the international press about the
quality of statistics in Africa – particularly GDP estimates
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The impression left by this bad publicity was that African
statistics are inherently unreliable and that foreign investors
are in danger of being seriously misled about the true
size and growth of African economies.
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Introduction
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The concerns needs to be addressed to put the record straight. Especially
at the critical time when Africa is witnessing a renaissance of its economic
benefits.
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Introduction
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But are Africa’s statistics as bad as they are being
portrayed by some critics?
In attempting to answer this question, the African Development Bank in
March 2013 decided to undertake a survey to assess the reliability of GDP
data, including the availability of survey data, price indices, and base years
for constant price GDP.
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Key findings
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Upward revisions due to adoption of new SNA version
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Improved coverage and classification
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Rebasing of base years due to revised population figures, and good use of
recent survey data (agric., industrial or households)
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Better coverage of informal sector activities seem to be responsible for
most of the upward revisions, (except in Ghana)
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Most countries publish GDP estimates with a lag of one to two years –
this is a significant improvement compared to 10 years ago
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Richer countries are not guaranteed to have good statistics
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Some poor countries appear to give high priority to their national
accounts statistics e.g. Niger, Ethiopia and Mozambique
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Poor quality scores in statistics – Cong Republic, Cote d’Ivoire,
Equatorial Guinea, and Nigeria
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Key findings
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African GDPs in both size and direction are commensurate with those of
ASIA and OECD
◦
Thus, African countries do not in general make larger revisions compared to countries
in other regions
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Overall, GDP estimates in Africa are NOT nearly as bad as recently
suggested
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However, the survey points out some weakness which needs to be
addressed, such as
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Stricter adherence to SNA guidelines
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Adoption of a regular program of surveys of household, enterprises, & agriculture
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Etc.
Need for enhanced and coordinated support for investment in data
gathering for economic statistics and make data available to the public
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GDP revisions
Asia
Percent revisions to GDP for 2005
ICP estimates for 2005 compared with latest ESCAP estimates
Mongolia
India
Singapore
Maldives
Philippines
Bhutan
China
Sri Lanka
Malaysia
Brunei Darussalam
Fiji
Thailand
Viet Nam
Hong Kong, China
Cambodia
Indonesia
Macao, China
Nepal
Lao PDR
Bangladesh
Iran (Islamic Rep. of)
Pakistan
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
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GDP revisions
OECD
Percent revisions to GDP estimates for 2005
ICP estimates for 2005 compared with latest OECD estimates for2005
Turkey
Mexico
Korea, Rep.
Australia
Czech Republic
New Zealand
Sweden
Portugal
Israel
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Luxembourg
Iceland
Ireland
United States
Italy
Netherlands
Finland
Belgium
Norway
Spain
France
Austria
Canada
Poland
Germany
Denmark
Japan
Hungary
Greece
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
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GDP revisions
AFRICA
Percent revisions to GDP estimates for 2005
ICP estimates for2005 compared with latest AfDB estimates for 2005
Namibia
Tanzania
Uganda
Rwanda
Botswana
Mauritius
South Africa
Morocco
Burkina Faso
Central African Republic
Congo
Gabon
Kenya
Liberia
Mauritania
Sudan
Togo
Nigeria
Mozambique
Egypt
Cape Verde
Sierra Leone
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
10
20.0
GDP Base Years
Africa
Base year for GDP estimates at constant prices
as of 2013
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4
3
3
2
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
3
2
4
3
2
1
1
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GDP Base Years
Base years used:
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9 - Cape Verde, Egypt, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Guinea, Malawi,
Sao Tome & Principe,Togo and Zimbabwe – 2007 or later
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19 – at least 10 but less than 20 years
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8 – Benin, Central African Republic, Comoros, Congo
Republic, Madagascar, Mali, Nigeria and Sudan- more than
20 years
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Bank program to support countries
Ultimate objective - assist countries produce timely,
reliable & comparable economics statistics
 Source data
 Promote the introduction of “economic census”
so that countries can re-base economic
indicators around the same period
 Household and Establishment survey program
 Encourage countries to establish Statistical
Business Registers as a basis for improving
economic statistics
 Assist countries immigrate to SNA 2008 within the
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Way Forward
Countries to complete the diagnostic framework
questionnaires
 Scoping workshops comprising the major regional & subregional organizations & selected African countries.
 Two sub-regional workshops consisting of Anglophone
countries (SADC, COMESA & the 5 Anglophone ECOWAS
countries) & Francophone countries (consisting of the 4
UMA countries & the Francophone countries in West
Africa)
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◦ Assessment of the completed Diagnostic Framework for National
Accounts and Supporting Economic Statistics (DF-NA&ES) by the
countries
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Way Forward
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Finalization of a Regional Implementation Plan
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Development of phased national implementation plans based on national specificities
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Thank you
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