Transcript Estimation of Changes in Inventory in the Canadian SNA

Estimation of Changes in
Inventory in the Canadian
SNA
Arthur Berger
GDP by Final Expenditure, Shenzhen, China, 25-29 April 2011
Outline
1. Accounts that include changes in inventory in
the Canadian SNA
2. Revision cycle
3. Quarterly estimation in nominal terms
4. Annual estimation in nominal terms
5. Deflation
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Accounts that include changes in
inventory in the Canadian SNA
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Supply-Use accounts (annual)
Expenditure based GDP in the Income and
Expenditure accounts (quarterly)
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Revision cycle
Annual revisions
 Once a year, quarterly IEA are revised going back 3
years to align with the most recent supply-use
tables
Sub-annual revisions
 Between annual revisions, quarterly IEA is revised
within the most recent reference year only
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Revision cycle: GDP by final expenditure
Quarterly IEA
annual supply-use
Jan-11
Feb-11
Q1/2010 - Q4/2010
Mar-11
Apr-11
2008 GDP C$
May-11 Q1/2008 - Q1/2011
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11 Q1/2011 - Q2/2011 2008 GDP K$
Sep-11
Oct-11
2008 detail
Nov-11 Q1/2011 - Q3/2011
Dec-11
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Revision cycle: GDP by final expenditure
2010
2009
2008
Feb-2011 1st annual estimate
May-2011 2nd annual estimate 3rd annual estimate
final annual estimate
May-2012 3rd annual estimate final annual estimate
May-2013 final annual estimate
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Quarterly estimation in nominal
terms
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Businesses
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Farms
Other businesses
Government (very small inventories)
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Quarterly estimation: Farm
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Grain held on farms (8 categories)
Other inventories held on farms (8 categories)
Grain in commercial channels (1 category)
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Quarterly estimation: Farm
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Data sources
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•
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Surveys : market prices and farm-held inventories
(tonnes or head count)
Canadian Wheat Board and the Canadian Grain
Commission: prices and level of inventories (tonnes)
for grain in commercial channels
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Quarterly estimation:
Non-farm businesses
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categories
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•
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23 manufacturing industries x 4 types
19 retail industries
16 wholesale industries
7 other
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Quarterly estimation:
Non-farm businesses

Data sources: inventory book values
•
•
•
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•
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manufacturing, retail, wholesale: monthly surveys
Mining, transportation, telecom: Quarterly survey of
financial statements
Utilities: survey of utilities
Gold, logging: production, exports, imports, (&
reserves for gold)
Construction, finance: projection of annual data
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Quarterly estimation:
Non-farm businesses

Data sources: prices
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•
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•
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Manufacturing: Industrial Product Price Indices
Retail: Consumer Price Indices
Wholesale: IPPI and import price indices
Utilities: Uranium, coal, & natural gas prices;
machinery & equipment price index electrical utilities
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Quarterly estimation:
Non-farm businesses
The 6 steps for calculating investment in non-farm inventories
1. CBVe
2. DEFe
3. KBVe = CBVe ÷ DEFe
4. KVPCt = KBVe - KBVe-1
5. REVt
6. VPCt = KVPCt × REVt
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Reported current dollar book values of
inventories at the end of the period.
Deflator of book values at the end of the
period.
Constant dollar book values of inventories at
the end of the period.
Constant dollar value of physical change for
period t.
Revaluer of the value of physical change for
period t.
Current dollar value of physical change for
period t.
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Annual estimation in nominal terms

For most industries: annual figures are derived
by adding up the sub annual estimates.
Logging & mining: annual industry surveys
Supply-Use accounts:
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•
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a model is used to allocate industry inventories to
commodities
change in inventory may be adjusted to help
balance supply versus use
IEA is benchmarked to annual supply use
accounts
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Deflation
The 2 steps for revaluing book value of inventories
before applying deflators
1. RBVe = KBVe × REVt
Value of inventories at the end of the
period, in current dollars, estimated at
average prices of the period.
2. RBVb = RBVe - VPCt
Value of inventories at the beginning
of the period, in current dollars,
estimated at average prices of the
period.
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