Transcript Canada`s Provincial and Territorial Economic Accounts

Canada’s Provincial and
Territorial Economic
Accounts
Arthur Berger
Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, China, 15-19 March 2010
Outline
1. Regional Economic Accounts: Canadian
context
2. Regional Input Output Tables
3. Regional Income and Expenditure Accounts
4. Regional GDP by industry
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Part 1: Canadian context
Principles for Canadian regional accounts:
 Integration of accounts – Input Output, Income &
Expenditure Accounts, GDP by industry
 Standardization – common survey frame, classification
systems, chart of accounts
 Coherence – establish control totals & adjust detail to
add up to total
 Use administrative data and survey data
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Part 1: Canadian context
Legislative Requirements:
 Value added tax collected by federal
government on behalf of provinces, allocated to
those provinces based on regional economic
accounts expenditure estimates
 Federal transfer payments to provincial
governments also based on regional accounts
data
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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables
Topics
 Timing
 Detail
 Benchmarking role
 Data sources
 Balancing
 Deflation
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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables
Timing:
 Annual regional Input Output tables are
published 34 months after the reference period
 For example, 2006 I/O tables were published in
November 2009
 National I/O tables are published concurrently
with the regional tables
 Most source data available 15 months after
reference period, but some as late as 24 months
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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables
Detail:
 Regional I/O tables are broken down into 300
industries, 727 commodities, 170 final demand
categories
 This is the same detail found in the national I/O
tables
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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables
Imports & Exports Detail:
 727 commodities
 13 provinces and territories + rest of world
 Example: exports of bank and investment
commissions from Ontario province to Quebec
province were $600M in 2006
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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables
Benchmarking Role:
 Regional I/O tables provide C$ benchmark for regional
income and expenditure based GDP, and regional value
added by industry
 Regional I/O tables add-up to the national I/O tables
 National K$ I/O tables provide benchmark for national
real GDP by industry
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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables
Data Sources:
 Industry estimates
 Final demand estimates
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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables
Data Sources – Industry Estimates:
 Annual surveys, mostly establishment based, sampling
designed to produce accurate estimates by province
 Samples are usually divided into three strata:
• take all (large companies that operate in more than one industry
and/or more than one province)
• take some (medium sized companies)
• take none (smaller companies that operate in only one province
and only one industry)
 Income tax data is used for take none stratum
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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables
Data Sources – Industry Estimates:
 Other sources
• Labour expenses by industry – taxation data
• Construction – capital expenditure survey for output
• Financial industries – administrative data + enterprise
survey data
• Income tax data + occasional surveys
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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables
Data Sources – Final Demand Estimates:
 Personal expenditures: retail trade survey + survey of household
spending + service industry surveys + administrative data
 Capital expenditures: capital expenditure survey
 Investment in inventories: industry surveys
 Government current expenditures: public accounts
 International imports and exports: customs data (data exchange with
USA) for merchandise, survey data for services
 Inter-provincial imports and exports: combination of survey data and
modeling
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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables
Balancing:
 National & provincial/territorial supply/use data are
balanced in successive iterations
 National balancing adjustments serve as a guide for
provincial/territorial adjustments
 Implications at provincial/territorial level provide
feedback loop for re-adjusting national estimates (i.e.
Petroleum extraction = 7% of national GDP, 31% of
Alberta provincial GDP)
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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables
Deflation:
 Regional I/O tables are in C$ only.
 National I/O tables are deflated to K$.
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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure
Accounts
Topics
 Timing
 Benchmarking
 Detail
 Data Sources
 Deflation
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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure
Accounts
Timing:
 Preliminary estimates published 4 months after
reference period (i.e. 2008 estimates published April
2009)
 Revised estimates for most recent 4 years published 7
months later (i.e. 2005-2008 revised estimates published
November 2009)
 Revisions incorporate most recent I/O tables + all other
new information
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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure
Accounts
Timing (continued):
 National IEA revised estimates for most recent 4
years published in May (i.e. 2005-2008 revised
estimates published May 2009)
 Plan to move to single annual release of
regional IEA, concurrent with national IEA by
May 2013
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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure
Accounts
Benchmarking:
 Regional IEA C$ benchmarked to regional I/O C$ (up to 2006 so far)
 Regional IEA C$ benchmarked to national IEA C$ (2007 & 2008)
 Regional IEA K$ benchmarked to national IEA K$ (all years)
 National IEA C$ benchmarked to national I/O C$
 National IEA K$ not benchmarked to national I/O K$
 National and regional GDP in IEA very similar to national and
regional GDP by industry, but not identical
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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure
Accounts
Detail - Aggregates:
 GDP at market prices income based (C$) and
expenditure based (C$ & K$)
 Net Domestic Product at basic prices(C$)
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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure
Accounts
Detail - Income:
 Labour Income – 16 industrial sectors
 Corporate Profits – total economy; no industrial
detail
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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure
Accounts
Detail – Expenditures:
 Personal Expenditures: about 60 categories of
goods and services
 Capital Expenditure:
• Residential structures, buildings, engineering
structures, 10 categories of machinery & equipment
• All broken down by government and business
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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure
Accounts
Detail – Expenditures (continued):
 Imports and Exports: 9 goods categories, 5
service categories
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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure
Accounts
Detail – Sector Accounts:
 Sources and disposition of personal income
(includes persons, unincorporated businesses
and non-profit institutions serving households)
 Government sector tax revenue, investment
income, transfer payments, subsidies
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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure
Accounts
Data Sources:
 Corporate profits – quarterly survey of financial
statements, income tax data
 Labour income – monthly household survey of
labour force, monthly payroll survey,
administrative data
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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure
Accounts
Data Sources (continued):
 Personal expenditures - monthly retail trade survey,
annual survey of household spending, service industry
surveys, administrative data
 Capital expenditures - annual capital expenditure survey,
monthly construction payroll data, monthly
manufacturing survey (shipments of building materials
and machinery and equipment) and international trade
data ( machinery and equipment)
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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure
Accounts
Data Sources (continued):
 International merchandise trade – monthly customs data
(provincial allocation is challenging)
 International services trade – quarterly and annual
surveys
 Inter-provincial trade – model based on input output
tables trade flows & aggregate production and demand
data
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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure
Accounts
Deflation:
 Personal expenditures – consumer price index
 Engineering construction expenditures – labour and
material input prices
 Home & building construction expenditures – building
price index
 Machinery and equipment – machinery and equipment
price indexes
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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure
Accounts
Deflation:
 Government current expenditures – hourly wages of
government employees
 Exports – unit values, domestic producer price indexes
(exchange rate pass-through assumption)
 Imports - unit values, foreign producer price indexes
(exchange rate pass-through assumption)
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Part 4: Regional GDP by industry
Topics
 Timing
 Detail
 Data Sources
 Deflation
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Part 4: Regional GDP by industry
Timing:
 Same publication dates as the regional income
and expenditure accounts
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Part 4: Regional GDP by industry
Detail:
 Same level of industry detail as found in the
regional input-output tables
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Part 4: Regional GDP by industry
Data Sources:
 Monthly and annual industry surveys
 Monthly payroll survey
 Administrative data
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Part 4: Regional GDP by industry
Deflation:
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Reference Documents
 Guide to the Income and Expenditure Accounts, Catalogue no.
13-017-X, www.statcan.gc.ca
 Gross Domestic Product by Industry Sources and Methods
with Industry Details, Catalogue no. 15-548-XIE,
www.statcan.gc.ca
 Chain Fisher Volume Index Methodology, Catalogue no. 13-604MIE — No. 42, www.statcan.gc.ca
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