Transcript برآورد حساب‌هاي ملي فصلي ايران

Quarterly National Accounts in IRAN
Objectives of Presentation
 Quarterly national accounts in Iran
 Scope and coverage of QNA,
 Data sources for compiling QNA,
 Benchmarking techniques in use,
 Seasonal adjustment methods used,
 Price and volume measures,
 Revision policy and dissemination practices.
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Quarterly National Accounts in Iran
 In 2002, the preliminary steps
for preparing Quarterly
National Accounts were taken by the Statistical Center of
Iran(SCI) and QNA was calculated within the framework of a
research project conducted for the period of 1991-2005.
 In 2008, previous research has been revised on the basis of
“Quarterly National Accounts Manual, IMF, 2001)
particularly in the field of coverage level of details and
supplementary indicators and the quarterly national accounts
were calculated by the SCI for several years after 2006.
 In 2012, for the first time, a Quarterly Accounts Group was
established in the Statistical Center of Iran. This Group has
been continuously engaged in preparing and publishing
Quarterly National Accounts.
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Scope and Coverage of QNA
In order to calculate quarterly estimates of GDP we are using two
approaches (production and expenditure):
1.
Value added and GDP in current and constant prices by industry
2.
Expenditures of the GDP in current and constant prices
following
To estimate the value added and GDP by industry, in the first step, the activities
in the alphabetical ISIC rev3.1 (12 activities) were checked and by considering
available data sources and usual methods in the annual national accounts,
indicators and related quantities have been identified. Then, based on the bottomup method, coverage level of the 12 activities were determined and broken down
to computable components. Finally 42 industries were used in QNA calculation of
GDP.

In each industry, suitable indicators and quantities, have been used to estimate
quarterly output based on the Denton Method and then the value added is
calculated assuming a fixed equal ratio between the intermediate consumption
and output.
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Calculation method in GDP by expenditure is similar to estimations in the
production approach.
The Estimation and Dissemination Levels of Quarterly Quantities for
GDP by Industry
Row
dissemination level
Estimation level
Farming and horticulture
1
Animal husbandry
Agriculture, hunting, forestry
forestry
2
3
4
Fishing
Oil and gas quarrying
Mining
Manufacturing
Fishing
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity supply
5
Gas distribution
Electricity, gas and water supply
Water supply
6
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
7
Hotels
Restaurants
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade, hotels and
restaurants
Transport via railways
Other land transports
Transport via pipelines
8
Water transport
Air transport
5
Support Transport
Post and telecommunications
Transport, storage and communications
The Estimation and Dissemination Levels of Quarterly Quantities for
GDP by Industry
Row
Estimation level
dissemination level
Bank
9
Other Financial intermediation
Financial intermediation
Insurance
Real estate activities with own property
Real estate activities with leased property
10
Non- residential property activities
Real estate, renting and business activities
Real estate activities on a fee or contract basis
renting and business activities
Public administration
Defense
Compulsory social security activities
11
Primary education
Public administration and defense;
Secondary education
compulsory social security,
Higher education
Other education
Education, Health and social work
Human health activities
Veterinary activities
Social work activities
Recreational, cultural and sporting activities
12
6
Religious and political
Other service activities
Other community, social and personal
service activities
The Estimation and Dissemination Levels of Quarterly Quantities for GDP by
Expenditure
Row
Estimation level
dissemination level
Household final consumption expenditure
1
final consumption expenditures of nonprofit
Private final consumption expenditure
institutions serving households (NPISHs)
2
Government consumption expenditures
3
Gross fixed capital formation on construction
General government consumption
expenditure
Gross fixed capital formation on
construction
Gross fixed capital formation on Machinery and
4
equipment
Gross fixed capital formation on other assets
Gross fixed capital formation on Machinery
and equipment
Export of oil
Non-oil exports
5
Export of services
import of goods
import of services
7
6
Export of goods and services
Changes in inventories and data discriminations
import of goods and services
Changes in inventories and data
discriminations
Data Sources for Compiling QNA
 Indicators for GDP by industry
activity
Data sources/indicators
• Agricultural production index (based on Statistical Survey on farm gate Prices
Agriculture, hunting,
forestry
of Products and Costs of Agriculture Services in Rural Areas);
• Information from annual accounts;
• Government budget
• PPI components
Fishing
• Value / size of catches
• PPI components
• Registered data received from Oil Ministry ( including export, Refinery
Mining and quarrying
feedstock and gas extraction);
• Mineral production index (based on Statistical Survey on Production Price and
Amount of Mineral Activity)
Manufacturing
• Industrial production index ( based on Statistical Survey on Production Price
and Amount of Industrial Activity)
• Registered data received from organizations (including quantity / value of
Electricity, gas and water
supply
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sales;
• Gas and condensate export
• PPI /CPI components
Data Sources for Compiling QNA
 Indicators for GDP by industry
activity
Data sources/indicators
• Private sector investment in construction ;
Construction
• Government budget;
• The number of construction permits issued
• PPI components
• Iranian Urban and Rural Household Income and Expenditure Survey;
Wholesale and retail trade,
hotels and restaurants,
• Quarterly output from agriculture , fishing, mining and industrial
activities;
• Nights spent in hotels
• PPI /CPI components
• Number of passengers transported;
• volume of goods transported;
Transport, storage and
communications
• volume/cost of oil and Petroleum products transported;
• quantity /cost of parcel;
• Iranian Urban and Rural Household Income and Expenditure Survey
• PPI components
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Data Sources for Compiling QNA
 Indicators for GDP by industry
activity
Data sources/indicators
• Value of loans/deposits;
Financial intermediation
• Number /value of traded shares;
• Number of insurance; produced premium by classes
• PPI components
• Iranian Urban and Rural Household Income and
Real estate, renting and business
activities
Expenditure Survey;
• Real estate transactions
• PPI components
Public administration and defense;
compulsory social security,
Education, Health and social work
• Government budget;
• Iranian Urban and Rural Household Income and
Expenditure Survey
• PPI components
Other community, social and personal
service activities
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• Iranian Urban and Rural Household Income and
Expenditure Survey
• PPI components
Indicators for GDP by Type of Expenditure
Description
Private final consumption expenditure
General government
consumption expenditure
fixed capital formation
Exports and imports of goods
and services
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Main Indirect Sources
• Iranian Urban and Rural Household Income
and Expenditure Survey
• Data from government accounts
• Activities results from production approach;
• The value of imported capital goods
• Customs (volume and unit values)
Benchmarking Techniques
 According to IMF 2001 manual, we are using Denton
Benchmarking Technique to calculate quarterly estimates,.
 Also
in order to increase the speed and accuracy of
computing activities,
the SCI
has tried to apply the
methods, indexes, patterns, software, results and
documentations as a unified package. In addition, we have
developed a special software in order to develop the data in
Excel. This helps to modify and improve methods for
estimating each activity or expenditure components, in an
easy and independent manner.
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Seasonal Adjustment Methods
 In order to do
seasonal adjustments on time series, a
separate study has been conducted by the Statistical Center
of Iran. We used “TRAMO/SEATS(Bank of Spain)” method and
“Demetra+” software to calculate seasonal adjustments, but
the results have not been published by the SCI yet due to
the fact that we were not sure about the accuracy of results
and method. We hope that this workshop could help us to
improve our calculation methods.
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Price and Volume Measures
 Index of agricultural production
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Source: Statistical Survey on farm gate Prices of Products and Costs of Agriculture
Services in Rural Region.
Interval: seasonal
Coverage level: More than 1500 villages of the country in different provinces. Price
and quantity of production 45 farming products, 34 horticultural products, 21 animal
husbandry products.
Calculation method: chain-linking
Estimation level: 1-farming 2- horticulture 3- animal husbandry
160
300
140
250
120
200
100
80
150
60
100
40
50
20
0
14
0
Agriculture
farming
horticulture
animal husbandry
Price and volume measures
 Index of Industrial production
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Source: Statistical Survey on Producer Price and Amount of Industrial Activities.
Interval: Seasonal
Coverage level : 1879 industrial establishment
Calculation method: chain-linking
Estimation level: Two digits ISIC
120
100
80
60
Index of Industrial production
—
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Price and Volume measures
 Index of mineral production
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Source Statistical Survey on Producer Price and Amount of Mineral Activities.
Interval: Seasonal
Coverage level : About 320 operating mines
Calculation method: chain-linking
Estimation level: Two digits ISIC
105
100
95
90
Index of mineral production
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Revision Policy and Dissemination Practices
• Initial estimate: 2 to 3 months after the end of the
quarter
• Revised estimate: 5 to 6 months after the end of
the quarter
It should be mentioned that all QNA estimates by
the SCI are revised after finalization of annual
national accounts.
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Thank you