Transcript National Accounts Activities

Operational Material
Outline
 Topics to be covered
•
•
Part I: National Accounts Activities
Part II: Reporting Requirements
3
Role of National Accounts in the
ICP
Reliability of PPPdeflated GDP
Comparability
Accuracy
National accounts statistics
Basic Heading level data
Prices
Consistency
Expenditures
4
Comparability Problems in the
National Accounts
Exhaustiveness
of GDP
All
economic
activities
have to be
included:
Observed
Non-Observed
Informal
Inconsistent
Treatment of
Problem Areas
Legal
Illegal
Formal
Own-account
production
Income in kind
FISIM
Net expenditures
abroad
NPISH
Dwellings
5
1
2
Review GDP
Classification
13
Select Major
Products
3
Identify Data
Sources for Major
Products
Price Surveys
Carry out N.A.
work for comp.
resistant areas
6
Use Survey Prices in
GDP
8
Create Metadata
Flow Chart for 2005
GDP expenditure
4
Prepare Matrix of
Data Availability for
Major Products
7
Use N.A. data to help
edit survey prices
9
Update Metadata
Flow Chart for latest
year possible
5
Implement
Commodity Flow
10
14
Early data need
to identify & resolve
data problems
Implement Price
Tracking
11
12
Early Metadata Flow
Chart for 2011
Compile GDP & Main
uses for 2011
15
Develop vector
of 2011 GDP
expenditures
6
Activity Flow Chart
Initial Values
for L.Y.*
Adjustments
to L.Y.*
Adjustments
to 2011
Final Values
for 2011
Data Sources
BH Values for
L.Y.*
BH Values for
2011
Price Review
for L.Y.*
Price Review
for 2011
Variations
Commodity
Flow
* L.Y. : Latest year available
7
Five approaches to splitting GDP
1
Direct
estimation
The preferred method, if data sources exist
2
Extrapolation
Update an earlier expenditure breakdown using assumptions on
population growth, price changes etc
3
“Borrowing” a
per capita
quantity or
volume
Multiply the per capita quantity or volume by
the population of the “borrowing country” and
the price level index between the two countries
4
“Borrowing” a
structure
5
Using expert
opinion
Requires
clustering
countries for
each BH or
group of
BHs
Adjust the “borrowed” structure by a vector of
the price level indexes between the two
countries
Consult retailers, manufacturers, marketing experts, chambers of
commerce and other sources
8
Special Basic Headings
Housing
NPISH
Actual Rents
Health
Use GFS as
source
Production
Process
Related
Imputed Rents
Education
Health
Others
Education
Collective
Services
Compensation of
employees



Intermediate
consumption



Gross Operating Surplus



Net Taxes on Products



Receipts from Sales



9
10
Five Reporting forms
1
2
3
Reporting form
Source data
Price formation
 collects the basic heading expenditure
estimates
 documents how expenditures on basic
headings were estimated
 4 forms  steps involved in adjusting
values from basic to purchasers’ prices
4
Commodity flows
 Total supply of important products =
5
 provide some basic edits by comparing per
Variations
between 2005 &
2011
intermediate and final uses
capita notional real expenditures in 2005
and 2011
Table 1: Reporting Form
GDP Classification
Codes Headings
Expenditure Value
Local Currency
100000
Gross Domestic Product
Individual Consumption
110000
Expenditure By Households
Food And Non-alcoholic
110100
Beverages
110110
Food
110111
Bread And Cereals
110111.1
Rice
[….]
[….]
0
0
0
0
0
12
Table 2: Source Data & Metadata
GDP Classification
Codes Headings
100000
110000
110100
110110
110111
110111.1
[….]
3
N.A.
4-6
7-9
Original Adjustme
Sources
nts
10
Ex. V.
11-12
13
2005
Validation
Sources
Gross Domestic
Product
Individual
Consumption
Expenditure By
Households
Food And Nonalcoholic Beverages
Food
Bread And
Cereals
Rice
[….]
13
Table 3: Price
Formation
Basic heading
Product description
Percentage
Applied
Price
Basic price
+ Taxes/Custom Duties on products
- Subsidies on products
= Producers’ price
+ VAT not deductible by the purchaser
%
%
%
+ Transport charges
%
+Trade margins
%
+Installation Costs [for Equipment Items]
%
= Purchasers’ price
14
Table 4: Commodity Flow
3-4
GDP Classification
Code Headings
100000
110000
110100
110110
110111
110111.1
[….]
5-6
7-8
9
Supply
Total
Margins Supply =
Productio
+Customs Uses
n&
+ VAT+
Imports
Taxes
10-13
14
Uses
Interm.
Cons.
Hhold +
Govt +
GFCF +
ΔS
Exports
Gross Domestic
Product
Individual
Consumption
Expenditure By
Households
Food And Nonalcoholic Beverages
Food
Bread And
Cereals
Rice
[….]
15
Table 5: Per Capita Variations
3
GDP Classification
Codes
Headings
100000
GDP
110000
…
110100
110110
110111
110111.1
[….]
4
5-6
7
2005
Exp. in nat.
currency
Average
“price”
8
9-10
11
2011
Notional
real exp. Exp. in nat.
Per cap. currency
Average
“price”
Notional % Change
real exp. in not. Real
Per cap.
exp.
…
…
…
.
.
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Reporting Forms Flowchart
1
Initial Values
for L.Y.
1
Adjustments
to L.Y.
Adjustments
to 2011
2
Final Values
for 2011
2
Data Sources
2
Price Review
for L.Y.
3
Commodity
Flow
4
BH Values for
2011
BH Values for
L.Y.
2
2
Price Review
for 2011
3
Variations
5
Mandatory/Optional Forms
Forms
Status
What
For which year?
1. Reporting form
Mandatory
Available BHs
or aggregates
Latest available
year and the
reference year 2011
2. Source data
Recommended,
but alternative
template can be
used
Available BHs
or aggregates
Latest available
year and the
reference year 2011
3. Price formation
Optional
Important
products
Latest available
year and the
reference year 2011
4. Commodity flows
Optional
Important
products /
aggregates
Latest year
5. Variations between 2005
& 2011
Optional
All BHs
2005 & 2011
Model Report on Expenditure
Statistics (MORES)
Main Objectives
to assist
estimate
expenditure
values
to report on
underlying
processes
 Use of the MORES is optional.
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MORES Layout
Introduction
Part I
• Objectives
• Uses of the MORES
• Quality Assurance Check List
• Eurostat “Tabular Approach to Exhaustiveness”
Part II
By basic
heading
Part III
GDP
Classifica
tion
• Form 2- Source data & adjustments
• Metadata
• Form 1- Reporting Table
20
Eurostat “Tabular Approach to Exhaustiveness”
Defines standard set of non-exhaustiveness and
presents them in a tabular framework
Objectives
and
Advantages
Provides a comprehensive and systematic
assessment to ensure exhaustiveness of NA
Facilitates cross-country comparisons of
adjustments and adjustment methods
Provides for similar level of coverage of NA
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Form 2- Source data & adjustments
Latest year:
2011
ICP
Code
Heading
100000
GDP
110000
Individual
Consu
mption
Exp by
HH
Exp.
obtained
directly
from the
country's
NA
Exp. information from the
original data source
Adjustment documentation &
adjusted value
Refere
nce
Year
Descrip
tion
Exp.
value
Data
Source
Type
Adjusted
Exp.
BH
Value
for the
latest
year
available
22
Completing Part II in 5 Steps
Complete column 3 of Table 1 with whatever aggregate
estimates are available
Step 1
GDP
Classification
Codes
Classification
Headings Names
1
2
Step 2
By BH
Step 3
Automatic
Step 4
Aggregate level
Step 5
All levels
Initial
Expenditures
Values (GDP and
main uses)
3
Basic heading
values estimated
using the
proposed 5
approaches
4
Discrepancies
(3)-(4)
5
• Apply 5 approaches
• Complete column 4 of Table 1
• Report discrepancies between
columns 3 and 4 under column 5
• Make adjustments to resolve
discrepancies
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