Transcript Benchmarking

Scope and Role of
Quarterly National Accounts
Training Workshop on the Compilation of Quarterly National Accounts
for Economic Cooperation Organization Member Countries
8-11 March 2015
Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran
United Nations Statistics Division
Outline
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What are quarterly national accounts (QNA)?
Key features of QNA
Scope of QNA
Role and uses of QNA
Time series data
Transparency, timeliness and reliability
Setting up QNA
Conclusions
Questions
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What are QNA?
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QNA constitute a system of integrated
quarterly time series coordinated through an
accounting framework
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Accounting framework could be based on the 1993
or 2008 SNA
QNA follow the same principles, concepts,
definitions and structure as the annual
national accounts (ANA)
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Key features of QNA
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Present the short-term movements of the
economy, providing a coherent measure of such
movements within the methodological
framework of national accounts
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In contrast with ANA, QNA focus on growth rates and
their temporal characteristics such as acceleration,
deceleration or changes in sign
Have same standard classification as in ANA,
albeit at a higher level of aggregation
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ANA are available at much more disaggregated levels
to provide information on structural details about the
economy
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Key features of QNA
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Are available in non-seasonally and seasonallyadjusted forms due to variations in the intensity
of economic activity within a year
Have to be reconciled to ANA estimates
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Annual estimates and the sum of the corresponding
quarterly estimates should be equal which implies the
possible need for benchmarking
Undergo more substantial and frequent revisions
than for ANA due to characteristics of data
sources and compilation methods
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Scope of QNA
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In principle, QNA cover the entire sequence of
accounts and balance sheets in the 2008 SNA,
but in practice, lack of data, time and resources
mean that QNA are usually less complete than
annual national accounts (ANA)
Scope will usually evolve over time
Countries can consider compiling the following
QNA to fulfil the minimum requirement for the
minimum required dataset for the scope of the
implementation of the 2008 SNA
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Nominal and volume measure of GDP by industry or by
expenditure components
Accounts for the total economy (until net lending)
Rest of the world account (until net lending)
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Scope of QNA
Scope of implementation of 2008 SNA for QNA
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Roles and uses of QNA
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Main purpose: Provide a picture of current
economic developments that is
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More timely than that provided by ANA
More comprehensive than that provided by individual
short-term indicators through the use of an integrated
framework
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Roles and uses of QNA
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Support policy needs and monitoring by
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Providing early warning on occurrence and timing of
economic upturns and downturns
Measuring short-term impact of internal and external
shocks on production, income and consumption
Supporting formulation of national budgets
Ensuring prompt and effective fiscal and monetary
policy response
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Roles and uses of QNA
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Allow analysis of dynamic relationships between
macroeconomic aggregates by providing time
series of quarterly data in a coherent accounting
framework
Provide basic data for business cycle analysis
and economic modelling
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Roles and uses of QNA
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Have a role to play for accounting under high
inflation and where annual source data are
based on varying fiscal years
Provide a coordinating conceptual framework for
design and collection of economic source
statistics
Provide a framework to identify major gaps in
the range of short-term statistics
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Time series data
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A time series is defined as a series of data obtained
through measurement of the same concept over
time that allows different periods to be compared
For business cycle analysis, identifying turning
points, trend-cycle analysis, studying dynamic
relationships between macroeconomic variables and
for forecasting, it is important to have QNA in a
time series format that is
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Sufficiently long (at least 5 years)
Comparable over time
Consistent over time with respect to concepts and
measurement
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Compile discrete rather than cumulative data
Seasonally adjusted
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Transparency, timeliness and
reliability
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Users want QNA to be published as soon as
possible after the end of each quarter
Users also want QNA to as accurate as possible
so to minimize subsequent revisions
But, resource constraints, respondent burden and
different user needs mean that there is a tension
between timeliness of published data and
reliability, accuracy and comprehensiveness
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More timely QNA estimates may require greater
subsequent revisions
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Transparency, timeliness and
reliability
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Revisions, if not well-managed and
communicated, may cause concerns among users
To face any concerns users may have about
revisions, it is important to have a well-designed,
carefully-managed and transparent revision
policy
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A later session will address this in detail
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Setting up QNA
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Setting up a system to compile QNA is typically not
an easy task and some key steps are needed to
ensure the project runs smoothly
Consult potential stakeholders concerning
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Possible uses
Required scope, detail, timing of release…
Take inventory of
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Annual compilation methods
Available quarterly and annual source data
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Setting up QNA
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Design compilation methods and procedures
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Consider relationship to sources and methods used in ANA
Decide scope of QNA
Determine compilation level
Choose integrated or separate ANA-QNA compilation system
Make compilation schedule including timeliness of first
release and revision policy
Review quality of source data and compilation
procedures
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Study correlation between annual and quarterly source data
Study revisions to main aggregates
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Setting up QNA
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Generate time series of QNA for past years
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Perform real-time tests and update current year QNA
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Benchmark to ANA
Link monthly and quarterly source data for current quarters
with estimates for back series through, say, extrapolation
Release first estimates
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Conclusions
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The scope of QNA tends to be less complete
than that of ANA
Nevertheless, QNA form an integrated
accounting framework to track short-term
economic performance that is more timely than
that provided by ANA
Issues of transparency, timeliness and
reliability need to be balanced in the
compilation of QNA
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Questions
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Is your country currently compiling QNA?
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If yes, what is the scope of QNA that is being
compiled in your country?
If not, do you have any plans to do so?
Do you have plans to expand the current
scope? How?
Are the QNA published in a discrete or
cumulative format?
Who are the main users of QNA?
How are QNA used in policy formulation and
monitoring
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Thank you
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