Transcript Symmetric Input-Output Tables and Quality Standards for

SNA Revision (1)
The 29th General conference of IARIW
August 20-26, 2006, Juensuu, Finland
Discussant
Bent Thage
Two papers
• Impact of the SNA 1993 on India’s national
accounting system and potential implications of
the revised SNA
by Ramesh Kolli, Ministry of Statistics and Programme
Implementation, India
• Recent progress in China on the SNA and
challenges for the new revision
by Xu Xianchun, National Bureau of Statistics, Beijing
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Importance in the world economy
Per cent. Year 2000
Share of
world
population
India
17
China
21
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Share of
world GDP
(ppp)
6
10
What does implementation of the 1993 SNA mean?
• Scope of the accounts.
(The six Milestones)
• Concepts and classifications used (Limited
checklist)
• Basic data quality.
(No explicit standard, but integral part of
assessment)
Later elaborated in ”minimum requirements” for
having implemented the 1993 SNA and aset of
”recommended tables” (E/CN3/2001/7
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Implementation milestones for the 1993
SNA (Defined by the ISWGNA 1997)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
5
GDP by industry and final expenditures in
current and constant prices.
GNI and complete rest of the world account
Institutional sector accounts (1). Production
accounts and complete government accounts
Institutional sector acccounts (2). All accounts
down to the capital account
Institutional sector accounts (3). Financial
accounts for all sectors
Other changes in assets accounts and
balance sheets
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Moving target
1953 SNA
1968 SNA
1993 SNA
1993 SNA, Rev1
20??SNA
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Scope of Chinese SNA implementation
• 1985 GDP production
• 1989 GDP final expenditures
1992: the SNA was officially adopted in China
• 1992 QNA, production only
• 1992 Institutional sector acounts, including
financial accounts
• 1997 Balance sheets (no revaluation accounts,
not so far published)
• (SNA input-output tables five-yearly since
1987, latest 2002.
• (Back series on SNA basis to 1952)
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Censuses 1992 (limited) and 2004
The 1992 tertiary industry census:
GDP revised upwards 9,3 per cent
Tertiary activities up with 33,1 per cent.
The comprehensive 2004 census:
GDP revised upwards 16,8 per cent
Tertiary activities up with 48,7 per cent
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Revisions following the census 2004
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Revisions of growth rates
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Concepts and classifications
• NA data very aggregated, both on production and
expenditure sides. (COICOP and COFOG not applied)
• Very summary constant price estimates. CPI widely used
for deflating value added in service activities (GDDS on
publication of constant price data).
• Now change of base year for constant price estimates
every 5 years. No plans to use chain indices.
• FISIM since 2004 treated according to SNA, and
allocated.
• Own-produced soft-ware not identified and capialized
(but purchased soft-ware since 2004
• Owner-occupied dwellings.Simplified user cost method?
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Problem areas
[and plans to deal with them]
• Lack of regular stat istics on most
services [Pilot sample surveys]
• No PPIs for services [Plan to establish]
• QNA no expenditure side, and compiled
on cumulative basis [Experimental work
to change this]
• Compile revaluation accounts
• Input-output. Direct decomposition to be
replaced by change to stablishment as
basic unit. [Will be a major project]
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Chinese comments on three provisional
recommendations for updating the 1993 SNA.
• Allocation of the output of central banks (6b):
Difficult to establish separate units for market
and non-market operations.
• Informal sector (32)
Welcomes it, but it will not solve the basic data
problems.
• Government transactions with public
corporations: Earnings from equity investment
and capital injection (34)
Is important in China, but it may, however be
impossible to obtain the required data from
government finance statistics.
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Scope of Indian national accounts
• Annual production side (18 major
industries)
• Annual expenditures side
• Constant prices. Major aggregates only
(new base year every 5 years)
• Consolidated accounts of the nation
• QNA. Production side only (8 industries)
• Input-output tables 5 yearly (115 sectors)
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SNA implementation in India
• Is at level 3 of the Milestones
• Fullfils ISWGNAs ”Minimum
requirements” for implementation of
the SNA, but not all the
recommended (QNA expenditures,
annual supply/use tables
• Subscribes to the SDDS
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Plans for improvements
In 2007 the following will be published:
• Integrated accounts for all institutional
sectors down to capital account
• Cross classification of gross value added
by industries and institutional sectors
• QNA also expenditures (curr./const)
• Annual supply and use tables
• Implement COICOP and COFOG
And thus reach level 4 of Milestones.
No plans to reach level 5 and 6
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Compliance with 1993 SNA
• Now mixture of 1968 SNA and 1993
SNA, but production and asset
boundaries close to 1993 SNA.
• In 2006 several more features of 1993
SNA introduced (for example basic
prices rather than factor prices).
• Own-account software not recorded
• Government operations on cash basis
• FISIM has been allocated to users since
60s
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Availability of source data
• Lack of comprehensive business register
• Large informal sector (mixed income 40
per cent of GDP)
• In general considerable lack of annual
and quarterly data
• 5-yearly economic censuses and LFS
• Decennial population censuses
• General method: Benchmark combined
with varaity of indicators.
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Implications of the SNA update
• Plans only to deal with the issues that
come under the production, income and
capital accounts.
• The producers of key data (RBI and
MoF) and the Advisory Commmittee on
National Accounts must be consulted
• ”However, the compilations would also
eventually be seen in terms of utility of
having such detailed estimates from the
point of view of policy planners” (p. 16)
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Possible implementation strategy
• Implementation possibilities listed for all 44
provisional recommendations
• 8 issues that relate to financial accounts or
balance sheets are not discussed.
• Employer retirement pension systems (2).Must
first be recorded in the GFS.
• For research and development (9) and
databases (12) more information would be
needed in the accounts of enterprises
• Costs of ownership transfers (14). Difficult to
obtain such details.
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Possible implementation strategy (cont.)
• Miltary weapons (19). Only to the extend details
are available in the budget documents
• Goodwill (22) No information available on
purchased goodwill
• Informal sector (32). Seen as very important.
Refer to the work of the Delhi Group.
• Recording of taxes (35). Difficult to get
information on accrual basis
• Many fiscal and foreign sector issues are
referred to be considered by MoF or RBI.
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Comments/questions
• India and China have no members of the Advisory Expert
group (AEG)
• Which national consultation processes took place prior to
responding to the UNSD consultations on the various
sets of recommendtions from the AEG?
• Did ressource considerations and priorities in the over-all
statistical system play any role?
• Which weight was given to the national possibilities to
implement the provisional recommendations (although for
the two countries there are no formal obligations to
implement the 1993 SNA, Rev 1)?
• Which processes will take place before commending on
the full set of provisional resommendatios to the UNSD
(deadline September 15)?
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Questions on two specific issues
• None of the two countries have found it feasible
to implement the 1993 SNA treatment of ownaccount production of software, as this requires
functional breakdown of internal activities in the
enterprises. The provisional recommendation
on R&D expenditures pose the same type of
data problem –how to deal with this?
• Will it be possible to obtain and disseminate the
information necessary for implementing the
provisional recommendation on capitalizing of
offensive weapon systems?
• In both the above cases, would it be possible to
compile back series?
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