Transcript Climate
Enter Climate Change Climate Change Cooperation Source: NASA The Problem Human Induced Increase in GHG The Increase in CO2 is Not Uncertain Effect on Global Mean Temperature The Science Svante Arrhenius (1896) – doubling of CO2 > increase by 5C Transnational scientific collaboration: 1970s1980s International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): 1988 by WMO and UNEP IPCC Doubling of CO2 – 1.4-5C t increase Sources of Scientific Uncertainty Sulfate aerosol – cooling effect Ocean – absorption capacity Clouds – cooling or warming effect Non-linear effect – shutdown of the circulation of the North Atlantic (thermohaline circulations)? The Actors USA 21% China 15% Rest of the W orld 35% EU 14% Japan 4% India 5% Russia 6% The Breakthrough UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Rio 1992) – – – – – 189 countries joined Common but differentiated responsibility Stabilization at 1990 emission levels desirable Reporting requirement GEF: Main funding mechanism COP at Kyoto Lead actors: EU reductions of CO2, NOx, methane from 1990 levels Transition economies: Emissions considerably (~30%) below 1990 levels ->hot air. US Position: stabilization of all gases at 1990 levels and emissions trading to offset costs, differential targets, participation of developing countries – Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zeeland Developing countries: industrialized countries should take the lead The Kyoto Protocol Emission reduction targets for industrialized countries (Annex I countries) -total emissions -5.2% of 1992 by 2008-2012 -national ceilings -Six gases included (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, HFCs, PFCs and sulfur hexafluoride). Global Warming Potentials used to translate to C02 equivalent. No targets for developing countries Emissions Trading, Joint Implementation, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) COP Bonn and Marrakech Implementation of flexible mechanisms Forest sinks – countries can receive credits for carbon sinks (forests) “Enforcement” mechanisms Flexible Mechanisms Emissions trading – Countries with binding emissions trade Joint Implementations – Country with binding target receives emission credits for emission abatement projects in another country with a binding target Clean Development Mechanism – Countries with targets receive credits for abatement projects in developing countries – 2% tax for adaptation Entry into Force 55 ratifications 55% of Annex I emissions Country % of 1990 Annex I Emissions http://unfccc.int/resource/kpthermo.html US 36.1 EU 24.2 Russia 17.4 Japan n 8.5 Canada 3.3 Poland 3 Other EU 3.4 Acce cession Two Views on Kyoto Is the KP fatally flawed or is it a meaningful step in the right direction? Kyoto Protocol Controversies Hot air Non-participation Leakage Measuring additionally in JI and CDM Enforcement – “paper” trades – Non-compliance – Exit Current Developments Russia ratified 2005 EU carbon emissions trading projected started January/February 2005 – National allocation plans (cover about 5,000 out of estimated 12,000 large emitters) – Approval of national emission plans – Trade in emission allowances COP 11, Montreal, November-December 2005 COP 12, Nairobi, November 2006.