Transcript IER05_climate_web

Enter Climate Change
Climate Change
Cooperation
Source: NASA
The Problem
Human Induced Increase in GHG
Effect on Global Mean Temperature
The Science
 Svante Arrhenius (1896) – doubling of CO2 > increase by 5C
 Transnational scientific collaboration: 1970s1980s
 International Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC): 1988 by WMO and UNEP
IPCC
 Doubling of CO2
– 1.4-5C t increase
Sources of Scientific Uncertainty
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Sulfate aerosol – cooling effect
Ocean – absorption capacity
Clouds – cooling or warming effect
Non-linear effect – shutdown of the
circulation of the North Atlantic
(thermohaline circulations)?
The Breakthrough
 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(Rio 1992)
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189 countries joined
Common but differentiated responsibility
Stabilization at 1990 emission levels desirable
Reporting requirement
GEF: Main funding mechanism
The Actors
 Main concerns?
COP at Kyoto
 Lead actors: EU reductions of CO2, NOx, methane from
1990 levels
 Transition economies: Emissions considerably (~30%)
below 1990 levels ->hot air.
 US Position: stabilization of all gases at 1990 levels and
emissions trading to offset costs, differential targets,
participation of developing countries
– Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zeeland
 Developing countries: industrialized countries should take
the lead
The Kyoto Protocol
 Emission reduction targets for industrialized countries
(Annex I countries)
-total emissions -5.2% of 1992 by 2008-2012
-national ceilings
-Six gases included (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous
oxide, HFCs, PFCs and sulfur hexafluoride). Global
Warming Potentials used to translate to C02 equivalent.
 No targets for developing countries
 Emissions Trading, Joint Implementation, Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM)
COP Bonn and Marrakech
 Implementation of flexible mechanisms
 Forest sinks – countries can receive credits
for carbon sinks (forests)
 “Enforcement” mechanisms
Flexible Mechanisms
 Emissions trading
– Countries with binding emissions trade
 Joint Implementations
– Country with binding target receives emission credits for
emission abatement project in another country with a
binding target
 Clean Development Mechanism
– Countries with targets receive credits for abatement
projects in developing countries – 2% tax for adaptation
Entry into Force
 55 ratifications
 55% of Annex I
emissions
Country
% of 1990
Annex I
Emissions
http://unfccc.int/resource/kpthermo.html
US
36.1
EU
24.2
Russia
17.4
Japan
n
8.5
Canada
3.3
Poland
3
Other EU 3.4
Acce
cession
Two Views on Kyoto
Is the KP fatally flawed or is it a meaningful
step in the right direction?
Kyoto Protocol Controversies
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Hot air
Non-participation
Measuring additionally in JI and CDM
Enforcement
– “paper” trades
– Non-compliance
– Exit
Current Developments
 Russia ratified
 EU carbon emissions trading projected started
January/February 2005
– National allocation plans (cover about 5,000 out of
estimated 12,000 large emitters)
– Approval of national emission plans
– Trade in emission allowances
 COP 11, Montreal, November-December 2005