Transcript Long term modeling - Centre International de Recherche

Long term modeling and transition
towards a Low Carbon Society
Semaine Athens module Changement climatique
Christophe CASSEN
Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le
Développement (CIRED)
[email protected]
Presentation schedule
• Some insights on climate negotiations
• The transition toward a LCS: lessons from
the past and perspectives
• Long term modeling: current development
and interactions with the international
negociations
Overview of the Climate issue
• Agenda setting and early international responses
(1985-1990)
• Constitutional phase: entry into force of the
Convention on Climate Change (1990-1992)
• Regulatory Phase: elaboration of the Kyoto Protocol
(1997-2005)
• The second constitutional phase: negotiation of the
Future Climate Regime (2005-….)
Agenda setting and early international
responses: 1985-1990
• 1979 : First World Climate Conference (WMO)
• 1985 : UNEP/WMO Conference
• 1988 : G7 conference (Montreal)
– Establishment of the IPCC
• 1989: La Hague summit
• 1990: Second World Climate Conference
Dominated by
Non
governmental
actor
Intergovernmental
issue
Constitutional phase: negotiation and entry into
force of the Convention on Climate change
• Rio (1992): FCC (Framework on Climate Change)
– Article 2:
“The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the
Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant
provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with
the climate system. “
– Article 3: common but differentiated responsibilities
between annex 1 and non annex 1 countries
• Equity concerns
Global emissions of carbon dioxide and methane (1850-2000) Sources: Marland et al. (2007):
Houghton (2008), Stern and Kaufmann (1998)
CO2 emission per capita per year per country http://greening.tafesa.edu.au/
Regulatory Phase: Elaboration of the Kyoto
Protocol
• The Kyoto Protocol (1997)
– Binding reduction targets for Annex I countries 2008-2012
(EU 15 -8%/1990, USA -6%, Canada -7%, Allemagne -21%,
Espagne +15%) )
EU vision
– Flexible mechanisms: emission trading, JI
US vision
• Marrakech accords (2001) : adoption of the detailed
rules of Kyoto Protocol
•
CDM : clean development mechanism
• The US exits from the process (2001)
•
Byrd-Hagel amendment (1997): US involvment depends on
developing countries’ ones
• The Kyoto Protocol enters into force (2004)
The second constitutional phase: negotiation the
Future Climate Regime
• 2007: Bali Roadmap, relaunch of the negotiations
– Mitigation/Adaptation/Technological transfer/ Financing
• 2009: Copenhagen, a failure?
– Rising influence of the BASICS / Europe marginalized
– A non official text: includes the 2K objective
– Copenhagen pledges
• 2010: Cancun, a call for a « paradigm shift »
• 2011: the Durban Platform, toward a global agreement
by 2020?
Three dynamics unchanged since 1988…
• Divisions:
– Within the industrialize country group:
supporters/opponents of binding, quantitative limits
on GHG: US vs EU
– Industrialized/developing countries over their
respective responsibilities for adressing CC
– Amonsgt developing countries those concerned
more about climate change/development and
poverty eradication: BASICS vs AOSIS
Conclusions
• A long time process, climate regime still in
evolution
• Limits of the FCC to foster sense of community:
more achievement outside (G8…)
• A process questioned for its complexity
• Toward a decentralized bottom up process
rather than a global international negotiation?
Presentation schedule
• Some insights on climate negotiations
• The transition toward a LCS: lessons
from the past and perspectives
• Long term modeling: current development
and interactions with the international
negociations
A transition toward a LCS?
« The switch from an
economic system
dependent on one or a
series of energy sources
and technologies to
another »
…a basic definition
A context favourable to a transition
toward a LCS?
• The urgency of climate change: the 2K
objective, European energy-climate
objectives, French F4, Energiewende
• What energy mix for the transition after
Fukushima ?
• Debate around the peak oil
• Global Economic uncertainties: a window of
opportunity for a green economy ?
Lessons from past transitions : the British
industrial revolution (19th century)
• From biomass to coal
• Combination of many factors:
–
–
–
–
–
–
new technologies (steam engine, coal grates)
favourable labor market: aboundant labor forces
agricultural progress
relatively cheaper energy resources (coal)
adequate financing system
intellectual and social values
• The transition was not smooth :
– unplanified process
– empoverishment of the working class
– delayed diffusion in other countries (France)
The nature of the transitions
• A long time process
• An increase in global
energy consumption
• Winners and losers
• A combination of
technological,
institutional and social
features : a wider
economic and social
transformation
Global energy consumption and transition, 1800-2010 Source : Fouquet (2009)
Source: Grübler, 2012
Open questions
• Differences between past and
future transitions?
• How representing future
changes? What tools and
expertise can be mobilized?
Presentation schedule
• Some insights on climate negotiations
• The transition toward a LCS: lessons from
the past and perspectives
• Long term modeling: current
development and interactions with the
international negociations
Energy/Development debate in the 70’s
• A turmoil context:
– Increasing awareness of environmental issues
(Silent Spring…)
– Energy tensions (first and second oil chock)
– Economic uncertainties (beginnning of structural
unemployment)
– The opposition between developed countries
and the third world around the development
issues: the Stockolm conference (1972)
Energy/Development debate in th 70’s
• Limits to Growth (Meadows/Club de
Rome) : a reference report
– The current trend of economic growth
conducts to a deadlock by 2100
– A model based on dynamic systems
(Forrester)
• Highly controversial:
– Underestimate technological progress
– Poor representation of economic
mechanisms
– Underestimates the Heterogeneity of
the world
• Several modeling exercises answer
to the report : Bariloche, Pesterovic…
Source: Meadows, 1972
Two pioneers, two visions of long term pathways
Amory Lovins (1976): Soft Energy Pathways
– Energy efficiency, renewables, decentralized energy
– Energy is but a means to social ends, and is not an end in itself
William Nordhaus (1974): growth is the anwer
–
–
–
–
Only a matter of bad technologies
The DICE model: framing for future exercises
Economic assessment of a climate objective
The followers: Integrative assessment models: MERGE (Manne
and Richels)…
The computer revolution and the booming of modeling
scenarios in the 90’s
A permanence of « modeling tribes »
OPTIMISATION
Bottom Up
(detailed sectors and
technologies
models)
Sectorial
Optimization
(e.g. MARKAL)
Top Down
(global models ,
systemic effect)
Optimal Growth
(e.g. RICE)
SIMULATION
Partial equilibrium
(e.g. POLES,
TIMER, G-CAM)
General
equlibrium
multisectorial
(e.g. SGM, EPPA)
Some key forum of expertise
• International institutes: IIASA, OECD,
World Bank, IEA (WEO)
• International scientific programs: IPCC,
Energy modeling forum
• Frame the scientific (and political?)
agenda
A key framing structure: the IPCC
• 1979 : First World Climate Conference (WMO)
• 1985 : UNEP/WMO Conference
‘Assessment of the Role of Carbon Dioxide and of
Other Greenhouse Gases in Climate Variations
and Associated Impacts’
• 1988 : G7 recommendation and the setting up
of the IPCC at the 40th session WMO, with
UNEP support
Initial objectives
• Identify:
– uncertainties and scientific researches relating to
climate needs
– informations necessary to assess climate policies
• Review policies implemented
• Assess all implications of CC
• Collaborate with other UN agencies and
governments
Structure
• IPCC Bureau
• Three Working Groups :
– WGI : Scientific Assessment of CC
– WGII : Impact assessment of CC
– WGIII : Mitigation strategies to CC
• SBSTA – Subsidiary Body for Scientific and
Technological Advice (SBSTA),
– Interface between IPCC and UNFCCC :
– Disseminate the conclusions of IPCC
– Reframe the specifications of IPCC
Writing process of the report
• Each group divided in chapters with
coordinating, lead and contributing authors
• Strict appointment of experts
• Long process of writing: a volunteer job!
• Three reports: complete report, technical
summary, and the summary for policy makers
(SPM)
The IPCC and Climate Negotiations
Overview of the climate issue
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
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1979 1st world conference on CC
1988: G7: launching of the « climate case »
1992: Rio de Janeiro: Climate Convention
1995: The Berlin warrant
1997: The Kyoto Protocol
2000: Half-failure of COP6 at La Haye
2001: Marrakech agreement (COP7) exit of USA
2004: Kyoto protocol ratified and applied
2005: G8 Gleneagle : the 2K objective
2009: Copenhagen: too much expectations
2010: Cancun: a call for a paradigm shift
2011: Durban: toward a global agreement by 2020
First challenge: assessing the cost of climate
policies (early 90’s)
• Optimism of “engineers” vs pessimism of
“economists”
• Technical cost vs macro-economic costs
• What about the instruments? The debate
around a carbon tax: the EU vs the USA
First challenge: assessing the cost of climate
policies (early 90’s)
• 1990: The first IPCC report: set key frameworks elements
(mitigation/adaptation, short term/long-term, sectorial potentials,
emissions scenarios )
• Rio 1992: the climate convention
« stabiliser les concentrations de gaz à effet de serre dans l’atmosphère à un
niveau qui empêche toute perturbation anthropique dangereuse du système
climatique […]dans un délai convenable pour que les écosystèmes puissent
s’adapter naturellement […] et que le développement économique puisse se
poursuivre de manière durable », (art.2, CNUCC).
« les politiques et mesures prises pour faire face au changement climatique
devraient être coût efficace de manière à assurer des bénéfices globaux au
plus bas coût possible. », (art.3, CNUCC).
Second challenge: timing of action IPCC
Second Assessment Report (1995)
• WGI
–
–
–
–
Greenhouse effect due to anthropic emissions
Forecast +0.3°C/decade [0.2,0.5]
Forecast sea level rise +6cm/decade [3,10]
Several uncertainties identified (well, oceans, clouds)
• WGII : adaptation and mitigation
– Majority of systems are sensitive to climate change
– Several options available, depending on the future climate, institutions,
and investments available
• WGIII : socio-économic assessment of policies
– Range of actions
– Sequential policy making : uncertainty justifies the action
 The Kyoto protocol adopted in 1997 – COP 3
The Kyoto Protocol
• The mandate of Berlin: quotas of emissions
instead of an international carbon tax
• Kyoto: commitments and flexibility mechanisms
(CDM, JI)
• Application to the modeling agenda: The When,
Where and What flexibility strategies
When flexibility?
• Action timing : early vs delayed action
• The alarmists vs the partisans for a « a
wait and see » policy
• What’s next after Kyoto?
The cost of a delayed action
Source: Recipe 2009
Where flexibility?
• Different reduction potentials in sectors
and countries
• The problem of transfers between
developed and developing countries
• Toward an international carbon market or
a fragmented regime?
Transfers may appear prohibitive
Source: Crassous 2009
A third challenge: what type of transition?
Special Report on Emission Scenarios - 2000
– Complete review of the litterature of scenarios
• IPCC data set
–
–
–
–
Definition of 4 main ‘storylines’
6 modeling teams mobilized
Harmonization and review of 40 scénarios
One representative scenario for each storyline
defined
Special Report on Emission Scenarios - 2000
Globalisation
Globalised, extensive
‘Market-Forces’
‘Sustainable
development’
Regional, intensive
Regional, extensive
‘Clash of
civilisations’
‘Mixed green bag’
Regionalisation
/fragmentation
Emphasis on
Globalised, intensive
sustainability and equity
– Definition of 4 main ‘storylines’
Source : SRES, H. Kieken
Special Report on Emission Scenarios - 2000
SRES Scenarios
A1
A1C
A1T
Economic
A1G
A2
A1
Global
Regional
B1
B2
Dr
y
A
og
y
(lan
Te c h n
ol
er g
y
ic ulture
gr
d-use)
P
o p u a t i on
l
En
Eco nom
Environmental
iving Forces
Source : IPCC, 2000.
Special Report on Emission Scenarios - 2000
– Data set of existing scenarios
– Complete assessment of the literature
The issues raised by the 2K objective
The emergence of the 2K objective
• From an objective in concentration to an
objective in temperature (450ppm to the
2°C)
• A political background: G8, EU…
Fourth Report on Emission Scenarios - 2007
« Une stabilisation entre 710 et 445 ppm équiv.-CO2 en 2050 impliquerait, à l'échelle
de la planète, des coûts macroéconomiques moyens se situant entre une hausse de
1 % et une baisse de 5,5 % du PIB mondial. Cela équivaut à un ralentissement de la
progression moyenne du PIB mondial de moins de 0,12 point de pourcentage par
an. » (AR4 WGIII SPM Box 3)
Moderate stabilization costs
t
Optimism in reduction emission potentials
• Current technologies are sufficient to stabilize concentrations
Economic mitigation potential Potentiel in different sectors for different carbon prices
in 2030, for all reference trajectories
Source: McKinsey 2009
Cheap 2K? Yes … in a ‘first best’ world
« The most ambitious pathways [350-450 ppm CO2] are possible »
with a macroeconomic impact comprised between +0.5 and -3% of the
GDP in 2030 with technologies currently known and a uniform carbon
price between 5 and 80 $/tCO2 in 2030
… with a serious and ‘never read’ caveat :
‘Most models use a global least cost approach to mitigation portfolios and
with universal emissions trading, assuming transparent markets,
no transaction cost, and thus perfect implementation of mitigation
measures throughout the 21st century.’ (AR4 WGIII SPM Box 3)
Technologies are not the only way to reduce
emissions
• Behavioral obstacles
• Bottlenecks, lock in
• Technical progress is not a manna from
heaven!
Information gap in the residential sector
65%
90%
Source: Giraudet 2010
49
Technologies are not the only way to reduce
emissions
• Behavioral obstacles
• Bottlenecks, lock in
• Technical progress is not a manna from
heaven!
Early investissement, bottlenecks and
maturation of the EV industry
Max market share of EV in solds
Uncertainty on the triggering
date of the EV penetration
Source: vogt
et al 2009
years
Next 10 years are crucial:
CO2 Emissions from Coal-Fired Power Stations
built prior to 2015 in China & India
6 000
million tonnes of CO2
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
2006
2015
2030
Existing power plants
© OECD/IEA - 2007
2045
2060
2075
Power plants built in 2005-2015
Capacity additions in the next decade will lock-in technology
& largely determine emissions through 2050 & beyond
Source: WEO 2007
Technologies are not the only way to reduce
emissions
• Behavioral obstacles
• Bottlenecks, lock in
• Technical progress is not a manna from
heaven!
2K objective: unreachable?
• Depends on the GHG emissions
trajectories
• Delayed action means stronger negative
emissions in the long term
• Questionable availability of biomass and
CCS
Copenhagen pledges
Becareful of targets !
Source: OECD
Current issues not (or rarely) addressed in the
climate policy literature
 The climate/development Gordian Knot: Weak
representation of medium-run dynamics: a
lack of insights about the magnitude of
transition costs
 Few attempts to use models of a non-perfect
world with imperfect foresight and
disequilibria: the case of baselines with
imperfections
Towards hybrid models?
Technological
precision
BU models
Idéal model
Behavioural
realism
TD models
Macroeconomic
feedbacks
Source: Hourcade
Conclusion
• A community confronted to great challenges
to inform the post Kyoto discussions :
– Need a better understanding of the transition by
models, especially in developing countries
– More linking international framework and domestic
policies
– Think more in a second best world
• Objectives of AR5
– integration of WG I, II, III and linking global and
regional scale
– Toward commun scenarios ?
General Conclusion
• Consensus on anthropogenic climate change but
international negotiations seem to be close to a
deadlock
• The transition toward a low carbon society raises
the issue of :
– The adequacy betwen long term development and
climate objectives in particular for developing countries
– The design of climate policies to tackle the complexity of
drivers
• Long term Modeling supports decision making
– A great amount of scenarios since twenty years
– Modeling choices also reflect different visions of the
world
– Contributes to « build » climate change issue