Transcript Kyoto Glossary continued - University of Washington

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July 15, 2013
Russia & Kyoto
Role of U.S.
Projected Impacts of Climate
Change
Climate Change in the Russian North
Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Gas
Emissions
Changing winds, temperatures
and storm tracks
• Anthropogenic
forcing has likely
contributed to
circulation changes
(storm tracks, winds
and temperature
patterns)
• Warmer, wetter
winters in Norway;
drier in Spain (and
North Africa)
Source: IPCC 2007, Working Group 1, AR4 (Assessment Report 4).
The way it was
for a long time
Normal cover of
Arctic Sea Ice
Normal cover
of Arctic sea-ice
(late Spring,1980)
Figure TS.16. Vegetation of the Arctic: current conditions and
projected changes under the IS92a scenario for 2090-2100
A different world in the Arctic: present and future
The Arctic was also warm in the period
1925-1940, but the extent of warmth was
not global at that time.
Large future changes in Arctic sea ice are
very likely.
Changes in sea ice don’t significantly
affect sea level because this ice is already
floating. Changes in land ice (glaciers, ice
caps, and ice sheets) do affect sea level.
Clear decreases in Arctic
sea ice extent.
Projected future changes in northern Asia permafrost
boundary under the SRES A2 scenario for 2100 (IPCC)
Melting Permafrost
Sources: Special Report: Changing Climate, NGS, April 2008, p. 45; special thanks to
Dr. Bernard Hallet, Quaternary Research Center, University of Washington.
Map of Transneft and CIS Main Oil Pipelines
Oil Pipelines
Pumping stations
Ports
Refineries
Source: Transneft
Map 1. Major natural gas producing and prospective regions & pipelines
Change in Annual Average Precipitation 19762005
Map Source: Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia.
Siberian forest fires
Siberia burning (July
10
9
8
7
Actual emissions: CDIAC
Actual emissions: EIA
450ppm stabilisation
650ppm stabilisation
A1FI
A1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
Carbon
Dioxide
Emissions
2
6
5
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
CARBON
CYCLE
&
INVENTORIES
Source: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis; Christopher B. Field & Michael, eds., The Global
Carbon Cycle, Island Press, 2003; Special Report: Changing Climate, NGS, April 2008, pp. 32-33.
Differential Impacts of Different GHGs
Sources: IPCC,Fourth Assessment Working Group 1, Table 2.14; graphic from
Special Report: Changing Climate, NGS, April 2008, p. 31.
Carbon Dioxide terms long-term
Emission Paths to Stabilization
EEZ
Boundaries
Results of BBC World Service Global Survey of Views
Views of Action Needed to Reduce Climate Change, by Country
85
France
13
76
Brazil
16
11
4 4
China
70
25
41
Great Britain
70
25
32
Australia
70
25
32
USA
59
Turkey
59
India
19
50
Nigeria
Russia
33
27
43
37
11
11
16
44
26
6 2
7
6
12
7
25
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Necessary to take major steps very soon
Not necessary to take any steps
Necessary to take modest steps in coming years
Don’t know/NA
Source: BBC/GlobeScan/PIPA
IPCC - WGI
Russian testimonials
"It's been a mild winter, lots of rivers are drying up. For us, it makes no difference -it'd be better if it were even warmer. But it bothers the reindeer." Ivan Kanev, a
nomad reindeer herder NARYAN-MAR, Nenets Autonomous District.
"Of course you can see the effects of global warming. Sheet ice that normally covers
the waters of the Barents Sea is quickly starting to shift and disappear. In recent
years, you can't really see this permanent sea ice. It comes and goes. If the wind
blows this way, it brings the ice to the coast. If it blows the other way, it floats
away.” Vera Letkova, meteorologist.
IPCC - WGI
Geographical Pattern of Kyoto
Acceptance
A Ruff Rescue
Basic UNFCCC & Kyoto Protocol
information
 UNFCCC - United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change
 Kyoto Protocol is amendment of UNFCCC
 Signed December 11, 1997 at Kyoto, Japan
 Opened for signature on March 16, 1998
 Need 55 countries representing 55% of 1990 CO2
emissions to ratify for entry-into-force
 GHG reduction targets for 2008-2012
 6 GHGs include CO2, CH4, N20, CFC-12,CFC-10,
 2001 Bush says U.S. will not ratify
 44.2% of 1990 global GHC emissions without US,
Russia, Australia
 Russia 17.4% of 1990 CO2 emissions
 US and Australia ~40% of GHG emissions
 Talks stall in Hague post-2000 election
 2001 Bonn COP revisions - allows CO2 sink
Kyoto Glossary continued:
•
Baseline and credit A type of emissions trading scheme where firms are encouraged to
reduce their greenhouse gas emissions below a projected “business as usual” path of
increasing emissions. Any reductions below that future path earns credits for the difference
which can be sold to other emitters struggling to contain increases to baseline levels.
•
Cap and trade The most popular type of emissions trading scheme where emissions are
subject to a cap, permits are issued up to that cap, and a market allows those emitting less
than their quota of the cap to sell their excess permits to emitters needing to buy extra to meet
their quota.
•
Carbon dioxide equivalent, CO2e, See MtCO2e
•
Carbon neutral An individual, family or organization that is responsible for no net emissions
of greenhouse gases from all its activities is considered "carbon neutral". Emissions must be
cut to a minimum and any necessary emissions then offset by emission reducing activities
elsewhere. Buying accredited clean electricity helps cut household or office greenhouse
emissions, while investing in sustainable energy projects or afforestation schemes are
examples of offsets.
•
Carbon positive An individual, family or organization that is responsible for taking more
Kyoto Glossary continued:
•CDM Clean Development Mechanism. A Kyoto Protocol initiative under which projects set up in
developing countries to reduce atmospheric carbon generate tradable credits called CERs. The
credits can be used by industrialized nations to offset carbon emissions at home and meet their
Kyoto reduction targets. The projects include afforestation, reforestation and implementation of
clean fuels technology.
•CERs Certified Emission Reductions. Credits generated under Kyoto’s Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) - see above. They are designed to be used by industrialized countries to
count toward their Kyoto targets but can also be used by EU companies and governments as
offsets against their emissions under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. EITs Economies In
Transition. Those nations in Annex I of the Kyoto Protocol considered developed but currently in
transition to a market economy. Generally the nations and former republics of the old Soviet bloc.
•Emissions g. A market-based system for regulating the emission of greenhouse gases. The
quantity of emissions is controlled and the price allowed to vary by the issuing of tradable
emission permits. These rights to emit can be traded in a commercial market under an emissions
trading scheme.
•ERUs Emission Reduction Units. Tradable credits generated from activities to reduce
Kyoto Glossary continued:
•
ETS Emissions Trading Scheme.
•
EUA European Union Allowances. Tradable emission credits from the European
Union Emissions Trading Scheme. Each allowance carries the right to emit one
ton of carbon dioxide.
•
“Hot air” Also called “paper credits”, this refers to carbon credits for emission
reductions that occurred without any deliberate action. The prime example being
the carbon credits arising under Kyoto in Russia and the Ukraine where the
collapse of Soviet-era industry in the 1990s has seen emissions fall well below
1990 levels, the base year for reduction calculations, without the implementation
of any climate-related measures.
•
LULUCF Land use, land use change and forestry. The term given to treeplanting projects, reforestation and afforestation, designed to remove carbon
from the atmosphere.
NAPs National Allocation Plans. These set out the overall emissions cap for
countries in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, and the allowances that each
sector and individual installation within each country receives.
•
•
Kyoto Glossary continued:
•
PDD Project Design Document. The official application drawn up by an entity
applying for project approval under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).
PDDs must be validated by an independent third party, then approved and
registered by the CDM Executive Board before a project qualifies as a CER
carbon credit earner.
•
tCO2e, MtCO2e Tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, and millions of tons of carbon
dioxide equivalent. This is the metric measurement unit for greenhouse emissions.
The global warming impact of all greenhouse gases is measured in terms of
equivalency to the impact of carbon dioxide (CO2). For example, one million tons
of emitted methane, a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, is
measured as 23 million tons of CO2 equivalent, or 23 MtCO2e.
VERs Verified Emission Reductions. Tradable credits for greenhouse emission
reduction activities generated to meet voluntary demand for carbon credits by
organizations and individuals wanting to offset their own emissions.
•
Key Kyoto mechanisms
• Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Jointly agreed project
investments by Annex 1 countries in non-Annex (developing) countries.
Resulting emissions savings classified as certified emission reductions (CERs) ,
investing country can use to offset against Kyoto commitments.
• Joint Implementation (JI) Jointly agreed project investments by one
Annex 1 country in another, leading to emission reductions. Emissions savings
(in ERUs) credited to investing country, debited against host country
• Marrakech Accords 2001
• Track 1 projects - host country approves
• Track 2 projects - evaluated by independent organization
• International Emissions Trading (IET)
Trading of assigned amount units (AAUs) amount
Annex B countries
Existing & proposed mechanisms for
international emissions transactions under the
Kyoto Protocol
Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM)
Crediting period for CDM projects (from 2000)
Joint Implementation
Track 1
Crediting period for JI projects
Joint Implementation
Track 2
Green Investment
Schemes
Possibility of crediting reductions prior
to 2009 via emissions trading
International
Emissions Trading
Trading period
2008
First commitment period of the 2012
Kyoto Protocol
What have been the Russian Negotiating
Positions on the Kyoto mechanisms?
• Oppose
• Quantitative restrictions on
Kyoto mechanisms
• Taxes on the
implementation of Kyoto
mechanisms
• Special status of CDM as it
discriminates against
emissions trading and JI
• Treating Russia’s emission
surplus as “hot air”
• “Supplementarity owing to
negative effects on
development of market
• Support
• Early start of JI & emissions
trading
• Flexible approach to compliance
• Forests as carbon sinks
• International support for
capacity-building in EITs
• Regulatory role for state &
government involvement
• Reinvestment of emission
trading revenues into climate
change mitigation projects
• Banking of carbon credits and
forward contracts
What have been the arguments in Russia for and
against ratifications of Kyoto Protocol?
• For
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Climate change impacts: permafrost, sea level rise
Enhanced FDI from JI
Revenue from likely sales of Russia’s emission surplus
Investments via Kyoto mechanisms could support modernization &
innovation in energy sector
Improvements in energy efficiency crucial for future economic growth
GHGs reductions could improve domestic physical-ecological
environment
Russian ratification of Kyoto could improve Russia’s image as a
supporter of global multilateralism
• Ratification and implementation may smooth the way for
Russia’s entry into the WTO
What have been the arguments in Russia for and
against ratifications of Kyoto Protocol?
• Against
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Climate change impacts may be positive for high Latitude Russia
Extent of anthropogenic climate change is (very) uncertain
Revenues from ratification and compliance are likely to be low
Costs would be too high for domestic compliance
Kyoto Protocol unfair because not all countries have taken on emission
(reduction) commitments
Second phase or post-2012 GHG limits could conflict with Russia’s
ambitious economic growth goals
US withdrawal, makes Kyoto Protocol nearly pointless
Kyoto Protocol is at best ineffective and more radical approaches are
necessary
Sources: Pluzhnikov (2002), Nikitina (2003), Williamson (2004)
and Korppoo et al. (2006).