Transcript Sustainable Responses to Climate Change MKE July 2016

Sustainable Responses to
Climate Change
Alberto Vargas
July 6th, 2016
Outline
• The issue: what is at stake?
– LAC contributions
– Impacts
• Status: Frameworks and LAC in the context of
Paris - COP21
• Some responses:
– Nivela – Costa Rica
– Future Earth
• Conclusions and Resources
Global Warming and Climate Change –
What is at Stake?
• Energy provision using fossil fuels (80% now)
since industrial revolution
• CO2 and other GHG (Greenhouse Gases)
• Great Acceleration since (1750) and more
obvious since 1950s
• Warming due to CO2 known since 1812..
Confirmed in 1988 (Hansen)
• Attempts to “do something about it” since
1992
Great Acceleration and Anthropocene
Source: www.columbia.edu
Source: www.mahurangi.org.nz
Impacts of CC in LAC
• Extreme weather events
– Floods, droughts, hurricanes, heat waves
• Sea Level Rising
– E.g. Panama
• Loss of Glaciers in the Andes
• Displacement of crops and pests
• Coral reefs blanching and degradation
Hurricane Mitch, 1998
Sea level rising in Panama
Receding Glaciers
Chacaltaya, Bolivia
Chronology of Negotiations
• 1988 – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) – Regular assessments
• June 1992 – Rio Summit – un Framework
Convention on Climate Change (unfcc)
• Dec 1997 – Kyoto Protocol signed (limit
emissions and carbon trade)
• Nov 2004 – Kyoto protocol enacted after
Russia ratifies it. US did not ratified it.
Chronology…
• Dec 2009 – COP 15 in Copenhagen. (Weak
commitments as Kyoto set to expire in 2012)
• Dec 2011 – COP 17 in Durban agrees to work
towards an agreement for 2015
• Nov 2014 – China and US agree on a bilateral
commitment, making Paris meeting viable.
• Dec 2014 – COP 20 in Lima. Draft of a text for
Paris. Switzerland submits INDC in Feb 2015.
COP 21 – Paris Agreement in a
Nutshell
• Universal – 196 countries agreed
• Goal – Keep warming to a maximum of 2o C;
try to keep it under 1.5o C.
• Voluntary – Based on Intended Nationally
Determined Contributions (INDCs). Presented
by 187 countries….Aggregate Not Enough!!!!
• Periodic Review – Every 5 years. Starting in
2018, hoping to adjust reductions to goal.
COP 21 …..
• Mid and Long Term – Need to peak and then
reduce emissions. Goal zero net emissions in
second half of XXI Century.
• Externalization – For example carbon
sequestration and forest conservation..
• Damages and Losses – Mechanisms to absorb
collectively vulnerable countries losses and
damages.
• Transparency and Finances - $100 billion per year
for mitigation and adaptation (but not binding).
Bottom Line – Paris COP 21
• “By comparison to what it could have been,
it’s a miracle. By comparison to what it should
have been, it’s a disaster.”
George Monbiot, The Guardian
INDCs in Latin America
Source:
www.eyeonlatinamerica.com
Emissions Gap
Emissions Gap
• The emissions gap is the difference between
pledges made this year by individual countries
about their greenhouse gas emissions through
2030, and what's needed to have a good
chance of keeping global warming below the
2°C target.
3 key numbers to understand Paris
• 2o Centigrades……The goal
• 565 gigatons …….CO2 we can release to goal
• 2,795 gigatons…..Reserves of fossil fuels
• Annual release of CO2 …… 36 gigatons
Other key numbers
• 407.7 ppm …..CO2 in May 2016
• 280 ppm ………CO2 before industrial revolution
• 350 ppm ……… CO2 “safe”level
Responses and Good News in LAC
• Efforts to maintain forest cover in the region
• Efforts to maintain biodiversity in the region
• Amazon basin and river system still in good
condition
• Aims towards a clean energy matrix (hydro
and renewables)
Some responses to follow
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C-Change and integral approach
Nivela (Costa Rica)
Big History project
Displacement Solutions
Future Earth
CEPAL
LAC Webinars
Karen O’Brien
https://cchange.no/about/
Integral approach (Karen O’Brien and
Michael Zimmerman)
Integral Ecology and Pope Francis
Nivela (Costa Rica)
www.nivela.org
Ecuador: Not so good response
www.geoyasuni.org
Yasuni and Oil