ppt - WMO

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Transcript ppt - WMO

ROLE, CHALLENGES &
OPPORTUNITIES for NMHS in
SERVICING RISK TRANSFER
MARKETS
Dr William Wright
Team Leader ET1.2 - Expert Team on
Observing requirements and standards for climate,
National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, 700
Collins St, Melbourne 3001 Australia.
Ph: (61 3) 9669 4457 e-mail: [email protected]
OPPORTUNITIES
• Development of weather derivatives sector.
• Climate forecasting: potential in Australia and
Pacific for savings of many millions of dollars,
and lives and livelihoods.
• Well-developed capacity in Australia. Has been
eagerly embraced by the agricultural industry,
and predictions sought after by Government
decision-makers.
• The Australian aid agency AusAID is funding
ABoM to extend this capacity to Pacific small
island developing states.
OPPORTUNITIES (Cont’d)
• Major products in Australia are:
- seasonal predictions;
- forecasts & warnings;
- improved knowledge about underlying climate variability influences;
- historical data;
- climatologies;
- gridded analyses;
- geospatially-enabled products;
- online, real-time access to many products
•
The Australian Bureau, and others, also monitor climate
change (CC), and issue and interpret CC scenarios
(fundamental climate variables, extremes, sea-level rise)
• Underpinning all these services is a need for good,
reliable, long-term climate data.
Disaster mitigation – other
requirements
• Risk Assessment requires databases and maps
of hazards
• WMO (2004) recommends:
- comprehensive assessment of impacts;
- integrated data management system for data specific to certain
hazard types.
- use best available technology (Internet & GIS)
- free and unlimited access to databases
- utilise international and regional programs to enhance
collaboration and cooperation
- individual countries should develop policies that emphasis
preparedness over insurance, insurance over relief, and relief over
regulation.
CHALLENGES
• Simply being able to predict disasters doesn’t
mean all loss can be avoided!
• Uncertainty as to future impact of climate
change (esp of extremes, & especially at
Regional scale)
• Good services need good data – major
challenges in this area
• NMHS not adequately resourced to provide
stewardship of data
Observational quality
• WMO imposes uniform standards – but not
all countries follow them.
• Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) – can
adversely affect climate record, esp if not
well implemented.
• Maintenance problems – esp. in developing
countries
• Quality control – inconsistent if done at all.
Data availability can be a problem…
• In many countries, data remains relatively
inaccessible in hard copy format
• Inappropriate data management – need
sound systems, software, interoperability
• Data should be exchanged internationally
– but often isn’t.
• Training needs: observations; analysis and
interpretation; communications
Summary of the data issue
NMHS ability to provide services depends on:
Data, plus understanding and knowledge of
weather and climate, which depends on
Good data and information collection and
management systems, which
Is often a challenge,especially in developing
countries
RECOMMENDATIONS
• Need for adequacy in observing networks and to ensure
sustainability over time;
• Need for systematic data rescue programmes/data
management systems;
• Need to leverage regional and international cooperation to
facilitate observing capacities and service provision
“Governments need to realize that investment in these capacities is an
investment towards their socio-economic development"
• NMHSs need systematic interface with users to understand
their needs and requirements, and develop basic products
that address these needs
• Need for awareness-raising among insurance/reinsurance
companies, NMHSs, agricultural, finance and development
ministries who need to participate in developing these markets