Transcript zhang
WMO Priority Areas of next Financial Period (2012-2015) --Key issues for CIMO community Wenjian ZHANG Director, Observing and Information Systems Department (OBS) World Meteorological Organization (WMO) CIMO TECO, Helsinki, Finland, 30th August, 2010 Outline I. WMO Priority Areas of 2012-2015 II. WIGOS&WIS: Priority of Priorities III. Summary EC LXII Decision • The Council recommended that the SecretaryGeneral prepares for consideration by Sixteenth Congress a budget for the sixteenth financial period (2012-2015) that provides adequate resources within the range of proposals presented by the Secretary-General to the Executive Council. • The budget will address effectively the priority areas which Council agreed should be the – Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), – Capacity Building – WMO Integrated Observations and Information Systems – Disaster Risk Reduction, and – Aviation Meteorology. WMO Priority Area Global Framework for Climate Services GFCS World Climate Conference-3 Aug 31 – Sept 4, 2009, GENEVA Components of Global Framework for Climate Services Government Water Agriculture Agriculture Water Health Health Transport Energy Transport Sectoral Users Users Energy Ecosystem Ecosystem Tourism Private Tourism sector User User Interface Interface Programme Programme Climate ServicesServices Information System Climate Information Research & Observations Modeling and and Prediction Monitoring System Research & Modeling and Prediction 6 WMO Priority Area Disaster Risk Reduction DRR New Challenges: Climate Change and severe disaster under this background. Ever-complex society need improved services. Hot & cold spells Climate Change Tropical cyclones Dust storms Hail&Lightning Flash floods Avalanches Tornadoes Storm (winds) Wildland fires & haze Mud & landslides River basin flooding Heavy precipitations (rain or snow) Storm surges Ice Storms Droughts Socio-economic Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes are on the Rise ! Energy Disasters impacts many sectors! Aral Sea Transportation Water Resource Management Intensity Strong Wind People Heavy rainfall / Flood Agriculture Urban areas Hazard, vulnerability and exposure on the rise ! Drought Heatwaves Frequency Need for Multi-sectoral risk management Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007) Extreme Temp. 4% Extreme Temp. 5% Drought 5% Earthquake 16% Earthquake 8% Volcano 1,6% Windstorm 15% Flood 33% Epidemic, insects 13% Tsunami 0,4% Flood 10% Windstorm 27% Drought 30% Slides 5% Wild Fires 3% Number of events Tsunami 1% Earthquake 22% 70% of casualties 75% of economic losses Windstorm 43% Volcano 1% Loss of life Drought 5% Flood 25% 90% of events Tsunami 12% Epidemic, insects 10% Extreme Temp. 2% Economic losses Wild Fires 2% are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions. Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database www.em-dat.net Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels Belgiumc Global Challenges We Share As society becomes more complex we become more sensitive to natural and human induced variability. Global Hotspot study (World Bank with ProVention Consortium) Risk levels: Top 30%:Red; Middle 30%:yellow; Lowest 40%: Blue: 35 countries have more than 5% pop in areas at risk from three or more hazards 96 countries have more than 10% pop in areas at risk from two or more hazards 160 countries have more than 25% pop in areas at risk from one or more hazards WMO Priority Area: Aviation Meteorology • Aviation Meteorological Services is a priority area of focus under this ER 1. • The economic and social benefits that can be derived from air transport make it one of the world’s most important industries. • Expand the provision of weather information needed to improve aviation safety and air traffic management; WMO Priority Area Capacity Building CB Observation: GAPS WMO Priority Area WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) and WMO Information System (WIS) WIGOS & WIS What is WIGOS ? WMO INTEGRATED GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEM (WIGOS) • WMO Congress XV (2007) decision that integration in the context of WMO global observing systems defined as: – Establishment of a comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable system of observing systems, ensuring interoperability between its component systems; – Address, in the most cost-effective way, all of WMO Programme (weather, climate, water and environment) requirements with a view to reducing the financial load on Members and maximizing administrative and operational efficiencies; • WIGOS Framework major components: – – – – Global Observing System (GOS) Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) WMO Hydrological Global Observing System (WHYGOS) Facilitate the access to observations of WMO co-sponsored programmes (GCOS, GOOS, GTOS, etc) WMO Global Observing Systems • World Weather Watch - Global Observing System (GOS, 1963), WMO backbone system – Surface & Ocean in situ observing networks – Upper-air networks – Surface remote sensing (Radar) networks – Airborne and observations – Satellite constellations Annual Global Monitoring GOS Space-based development 1961 1990 1978 2009 Historic Evolution of Weather Prediction Skills Source: Martin Miller, ECMWF GOSAT OCO2 Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) SCIAMACHY AIRS, IASI WMO Hydrological Cycle Observing System Assessment of the quantity and quality of water resources in order to meet the needs of society, mitigation of water-related hazards global environment quality WMO Co-sponsored Global Observing Systems --Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) for Climate IOC, UNEP， WMO and ICSU Total in situ networks 61% March 2009 87% 100% 66% 81% 100% 54% 48% 79% 59% Milestones Drifters 2005 Argo 2007 Status against JCOMM targets Outline I. WMO Priority Areas of 2012-2015 II. WIGOS: Priority of Priorities III. Summary Importance of observations : From Observations to Consequences Understanding Analysis WIGOS Consequences (DRR,AM,GFCS) Monitoring Validation Assimilation Models Initialization Predictions The availability of new observations strongly motivates advances in understanding, prediction, and application. GFCS, what are the key challenges to observation and information Systems GFCS: Earth as a Complex System Atmosphere Surface Winds Precipitation Reflection and Transmission Evaporation Transpiration Surface Temperature Circulation Surface Winds Precipitation Reflection and Transmission Surface Temperature Evaporation Currents Upwelling Land Infiltration Runoff Nutrient Loading Surface Temperature Currents Ocean A Seamless Prediction and Services Framework Climate Change. Scenarios Forecast Uncertainty Centuries Decades Years Months Boundary Conditions 2 Weeks Weather 1 Week Initial Conditions Days Watches Hours Warnings & Alert Coordination Adapted from: NOAA Minutes Environment State/Local Planning Commerce Health Energy Ecosystem Recreation Fire Weather Transportation Space Applications Water Management Protection of Life & Property Applications Water Resource Planning Forecasts Seasons Agriculture Threats Assessments Climate Variability Hydropower Guidance Forecast Lead Time Outlook Prediction Anthropogenic Forcing Overview of Weather and Climate Models and the Required Observations Mid-1970s Atmosphere Mid-1980s Early 1990s Late 1990s Present Day Early 2000s? Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Weather Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface Climate Variability Ocean & Sea IceOcean & Sea Ice Ocean & Sea IceOcean & Sea Ice Sulphate Aerosol Need an Integrated Global Observing System meet all requirements Sulphate Aerosol Sulphate Aerosol Non-sulphate Aerosol Non-sulphate Aerosol Carbon Cycle Carbon Cycle Dynamic Vegetation Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Change WIGOS Priorities: Fill-in observing gaps • Key Areas: Sustained observations on operational basis – Ocean (Surface, subsurface and atmosphere above ocean) observations – Land (including Polar Regions and Cryosphere, solid precipitation, etc) – Chemical components of atmosphere • How: by integration of research and operational networks both In-situ and space Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (human) greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC AR4) The ENSO • • The predictability rely on sub-surface data Satellite can not observe sub-surface now TOGA, WOCE, CLIVAR, Argo: Global Ocean Observations Improved basis for an ocean prediction system Current coverage Key issues for CIMO: Ocean Observing Systems NDBC’s Ocean Observing Systems 111 met/ocean buoys 4 ocean/waves buoys 49 C-MAN stations 39 DART stations 55 TAO buoys + 4 current profiler moorings 1000+ Voluntary Observing Ship vessels Growth of NDBC Observing Systems 1999 to 2009 - The Era of Explosive Growth 300 Katrina 250 Tsunami 200 Weather & Hurric. 150 TAO 100 DART 50 C-MAN 0 1980 1990 2000 2002 • 51 CMAN Stations • 50 Weather Buoys 101 Observing Systems 2 system Types with similar sensors ~ 12 % in Severe Environments • USCG Provided all Ship Days 2004 2006 2008 • • • • • 2010 49 CMAN Stations 96 Weather Buoys 15 Supplemental Hurricane Buoys 55 TAO Climate Buoy Systems 39 DART Tsunami Systems 254 Observing Systems 5 system Types with diverse sensors ~ 25 % in Severe Environments • Challenge Obtaining Ship Days 36 The Arctic Ocean ice has been there for 2 million years. 1979 CCl Management Group meeting, Geneva 18-21 May 2010 2003 CCl Management Group meeting, Geneva 18-21 May 2010 Barrow, Alaska Tiksi, Russia Ny-Alesund, Svalbard Eureka, Canada Summit, Greenland Alert, Canada Establishing Intensive Atmospheric Observatories In the Arctic is the component of NOAA/SEARCH being directed by ESRL Temperature-salinity observations under ice Key issue for CIMO: Polar & cryosphere obs. Temperature-salinity observations under ice • Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW) and International Polar Decade (IPD) –EC-PORS • Solid precipitation observing instruments and methods • Cold region observation systems ( Atmosphere, Ocean, Ice, Land, chemical, etc) Key issue for CIMO: Chemical observing instruments EC-LXII Doc.3.4 Para 3.4.16 • The Council recalled that the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano had a huge impact on air traffic across Northern Europe during April and May 2010, and expressed it’s appreciation to those Members who shared specialized ground and airborne observational data in support of the activities of the London VAAC. • The Council further noted that a sustainable volcanic ash observational capability is a high priority activity. It urged the relevant technical commissions (CIMO) to work closely with ICAO and other relevant organizations to develop and implement such a capability, to promote development of appropriate Regional Volcanic Ash Monitoring Networks and related instrument development and also to assist in the strengthening and enhancement of the capabilities of the International Airways Volcano Watch volcano observatories. • The Council further emphasized that WIGOS should be designed and implemented in a way that can respond to emerging and high priority requirements such as the observation of volcanic ash. WIGOS Priority: Ensure the quality of the observations to meet climate & environmental requirements • • • • • • Accuracy, Precision Representativeness Measurement traceability Long-time series stability Reducing uncertainty ............. Sea level Observations: 100 fold improvement in 30 years WIGOS Priority: Long-term stability The longest available instrumental record of Temperature WMO / CCl Guidelines on: “Climate Observation Networks & Systems” “Metadata and Homogeneity“ “Climate Data Rescue” “Climate Data Management” Guidelines on maintaining national climate networks Length (>>10 years) and homogeneity of data records change of sensors Climate scenarios…. -> baseline climatologies with scenarios Multi-satellite Intercalibration improves MSU time series Operational Calibration 253 252 NOAA10 NOAA11 251 NOAA12 NOAA14 250 Linear (NOAA10) Trend: N10 = - 0.40 K Dec -1 , N11 = 0.80 K Dec Linear (NOAA11) -1 , 249 N12 = 0.36 K Dec -1 , N14 = 0.43 K Dec Linear (NOAA12) -1 Linear (NOAA14) 248 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Improved Calibration 253 NOAA10 252 NOAA11 NOAA12 251 NOAA14 Linear (NOAA10) 250 Trend: N10 = -0.39 K Dec -1, N12 = 0.43 K Dec 249 -1 , N11 = 0.58 K Dec -1 N14 = 0.31 K Dec Linear (NOAA11) -1 Linear (NOAA12) Linear (NOAA14) 248 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Improved calibrated radiances using SNO- improved differences between sensors by order of magnitude. 254 Combined Trend = 0.17 K Dec -1 253 Linear (Combined) 252 0.20 K Decade-1 251 250 1987 Trends for nonlinear calibration algorithm using SNO cross calibration 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 WIGOS Priority (remote sensing systems): Quality Environmental Products : GCOS ECVs SENSORS CCSDS (mux, code, frame) & Encrypt Delivered Raw Packetization Compression Aux. Sensor Data ENVIRONMENTAL SOURCE COMPONENTS RDR Production RDR Level Filtration A/D Conversion Detection Cal. Source Comm Processing Flux Manipulation C3S Comm Receiver TDR Level SDR Production SDR Level EDR Production EDR Level IDPS Comm Xmitter Data Store OTHER SUBSYSTEMS SPACE SEGMENT NPOESS products delivered at multiple levels knowledge information products data • Satellite data processing and products/information generation is of great challenge (sciences, technologies, calibration, validation with ground observations, etc..) • Satellite operators should develop value-added informative products and make them available to worldwide users, especially to developing countries. Outline I. WMO Priority Areas of 2012-2015 II. WIGOS: Priority of Priorities III. Summary WIGOS: Address three areas of Integrations/Standardizations • WIGOS will address improved value and availability of information via three areas of integration and standardization: – At the Instruments and Methods of Observation Level – At the Data, Product & Metadata Exchange Level (WIS) – At the Data Utilization Level - QMF principles • WIGOS Success rely on Measurements science and technology: Great Challenge Three areas of Integrations/Standardizations Instruments and methods of observation standards QMF Standards Users WIS Observations for Weather, Climate, Water, Ocean, … Data Processing and Forecasting Standards for Data & Metadata exchange & Discovery, Access and Retrieval (DAR) Services Archiving Active Quality Management GISC – DAR service Search Request marine warnings in area bounded by 40W to 10W and 45N to 70N Search Results User searches for metadata then retrieves information from data custodian Information request to custodian http://weather.gmdss.org/I.html Retrieve information Centre publishes metadata to GISC DAR catalogue Security/authentication/authorization and even charging is managed by each service provider WIS – New functionality supporting WIGOS NC/DCPC information access service 56 WDIS: WIGOS & WIS • WIGOS & WIS - a framework enabling the integration and optimized evolution of WMO observing and information systems, and WMO’s contribution to co-sponsored systems. • Members’ support is critical to provide additional resources in the form of: contributions to the WIGOS Trust Fund and secondment services to the Secretariat during the WIGOS Implementation phase to ensure successful WIGOS implementation. 4/12/2016 57 WIGOS Phases Testing (2007-2011) Implementation (2012-2015) Operations (2015 - … ) WDIP CONOPS CONOPS WDIS WIP WMO Regulatory Material WIGOS Imperative 4/12/2016 WIGOS Manual : Reference for 58 WIGOS is for everyone! Everyone can contribute to WIGOS! Thanks for your attention ! WIGOS Web Page http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/wigos/index_en.html