Transcript Climate Change Management Challenges

Environmental Science:
Implications for Management
Jennie C. Stephens
Assistant Professor of Environmental Science and Policy (ES&P)
International Development, Community, and Environment (IDCE)
Lecture for MGMT 5505: Green Business Management
September 14, 2009
Overview
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III.
Earth’s Systems - Integrated environmental problems of water, air and climate
An Unprecedented Challenge: Climate Change and Energy
Implications for Management
Earth’s Systems
Complexity, Cycles & Interconnections
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A system is a collection of interdependent parts (with flows and stores)
enclosed within a defined boundary.
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The earth has four major systems
– Lithosphere – soil, rock
– Hydrosphere - water
– Biosphere – living organisms
– Atmosphere – air
•
Human activity is disrupting
these systems in complex,
ways
Dave McKay, 2009
Lithosphere
Glencoe Text, csc.gallaudet.edu
Hydrosphere: The Water Cycle
Biosphere
Figure source from Yucca Mountain website
www.yuccamountain.org/main/newslett1005.htm
Atmosphere
Source: http://csep10.phys.utk.edu/astrowiki/
Unprecedented
change in past 50
years
Environmental change
Societal Change
Technical Change
Steffen, Crutzen et al 2007
System Structure
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Positive Relationship between
system parts
Increase in one part means
increase in another
Decrease in one part means
decrease in another
Symbolized with a
+
Amplifies behavior
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Negative Relationship between
system parts
Increase in one part means a
decrease in another
Decrease in one part means
increase in another
Symbolized with a
Balances behavior
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A complex, dynamic system (e.g. a living organism)
consists of many positive and negative relationships
Feedback Loops
The effects of a disturbance on a system can be
evaluated using the notion of a feedback loop.
Why are Earth’s Systems Difficult
to Manage?
• Unpredictability (stochastic behavior)
• Variance is the degree or dispersion or scatter in a variable (large
variance means low predictability)
• Unpredictability and extreme events make it difficult to manage
environmental systems
• Complexity
– The number of storages, flows, and the number and strength of
feedback loops in a system
The Scientific Method
Reductionistic versus Systems
• A Reductionist Approach is based on a premise that
the best way to learn about something is to break it into
its parts and study parts separately.
• This approach has been quite successful in the
natural sciences (biology, chemistry, physics)
• Limits of the reductionist approach
• General Systems Theory- concerned with problems of
relationships, structures, and interdependence, rather
than constant attributes of object.
• Integrated Systems Approach
Sustainability Science
An emerging field defined by the urgent problems it addresses rather
than the disciplines it employs
Use-inspired research
defined by urgent and
complex problems
rather than disciplines
Integrated education to
prepare society to deal
with increasingly
complex, interconnected
urgent problems
Connecting
knowledge and action,
researchers working with
practitioners
What are some examples of interconnecting challenges?
•
The earth has four major systems
– Lithosphere – soil, rock
– Hydrosphere - water
– Biosphere – living organisms
– Atmosphere – air
•
Human activity is disrupting
these systems in complex,
ways
Dave McKay, 2009
Overview
Earth’s Systems - Integrated environmental problems
An Unprecedented Challenge: Climate Change and Energy
Implications for Management
CO2 CH4 NOx, others (CFCs, PFCs)
Evidence that climate is changing (cont)
In addition to temperature observations over recent
decades also show that…
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Evaporation & rainfall are increasing;
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Permafrost is melting;
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Corals are bleaching;
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Glaciers are retreating;
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Sea ice is shrinking;
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Sea level is rising;
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Wildfires are increasing;
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Storm & flood damages are soaring.
Why is climate change most serious and most difficult to
manage of all environmental problems?
• Climate is the envelope for all of earth’s systems
– Truly global impacts, everyone will be influenced somehow
• Resulting primarily from burning fossil fuels, the foundation of world
economies
– Changing status quo of our energy system extremely difficult
• Uncertainty and complexity unlike other issues
– uncertainty cuts both ways, uncertainty makes issue more serious not less
– Scientific arguments has confused the public
• Time lag makes management/planning difficult
– Steps taken now will have uncertain impacts on the future
– Difficult for political or business leaders to demonstrate climate
improvements
Climate Change is Primarily an Energy Problem
Increasing
CO2
concentrations
EJ/year
World Energy 1850-2000
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Gas
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro +
Biomass
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Year
Increasing
energy
demand
Energy for heat, light, and mobility
U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Source and Sector, 2004
IEA, 2006
Electricity sector is also mostly fossil fuel
About 1/3 of
primary energy is
used to generate
electricity.
Other renewable
About 2/3 of this
comes from fossil
fuels.
2004
Total = 17,450 billion kWh
Holdren, 2007
CO2 Emissions per person
Source: UNEP
Armond Cohen, CATF, 2007
Overview
Earth’s Systems - Integrated environmental problems
An Unprecedented Challenge: Climate Change and Energy
Implications for Management
Societal responses to climate change
Mitigation: attempting to reduce the impacts of climate
change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Transforming our energy system.
Adaptation: Adjusting to new conditions, increasing
resilience to change, capacity building
Suffering: Some degree of suffering is inevitable and
already occurring
Most climate policy debates focus on mitigation, but adaptation
is becoming increasingly important
Integrated Consideration of Problems/Challenges & How to Address them
Environmental Changes
Climate change
Biodiversity loss
Deforestation
Water degradation
Air pollution
Technical Changes
More efficient technologies
Low-carbon energy, etc.
Societal Changes
Policy
Behavior Change
Globalization
Greater inequality &
polarization
Renewable energy technologies
Wind
Hydro
Solar
Geothermal
What Climate Policy’s Have been Implemented?
Global
UNFCC 1992 agreement to achieve “Stabilization of GHG
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system…”
Kyoto Protocol, 1997. National commitments to reductions below
1990 levels during 2008-2012
» Once 55% of industrial emissions ratified (Russia in Nov. 2004)
entered into force Feb. 2005
Copenhagen – post-kyoto Negotiations in December 2009
National - 2002 Bush administration announced would not sign Kyoto – instead
committed to reducing GHG intensity (GHG/$GDP)
Regional - California
– Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)
Local
– Worcester Climate Action Plan
» 20% renewable energy by 2010
– Institutional Policy
» Businesses
» Universities – President’s Climate Commitment
US Climate Action Partnership: Business
and NGO Partnership
Resistance to social change to address climate change is reducing, but
still very difficult to change the status quo reliance on fossil fuels.
US Climate Action Partnership:
Business and NGO Partnership
• Recommend U.S. legislation to slow, stop, and reverse the
growth of GHG emissions
• Leadership will assure long-term U.S. competitiveness
• Mandatory, but flexible approaches to managing carbon,
encourage developing countries
– Influence transportation, large point sources, and energy use in
buildings (commercial and residential)
– Market based, cap & trade, tax reform, RD&D, etc.
• International cooperation
• Incentives for technology, near-term action (before
mandatory limits),
• Goal for CO2 450-550ppm
• Uniform price for GHG emissions across sectors
Challenge of Climate Change Management
in Institutions of Higher Education
• 2007 -Clark signed the Presidents Climate Commitment
– Pledging Carbon Neutrality
• Clark’s Climate Action Plan – climate neutral by 2030;
enhance integration of sustainability into the University’s
planning, decision-making processes and behaviors.
Concluding Remarks on the Climate/Energy
Challenge
As a global citizen
Climate change - the most serious environmental threat to human civilization.
Demand for action growing.
As a scientist
No “silver bullet” technical solution exists – need to explore and move
forward with a portfolio of technological and social change options
As a policy analyst
Improved understanding of science and technology by the public and
policy makers will increase our chances of mitigating disastrous impacts
As a teacher
We will increasingly be confronted with the unprecedented challenges of
climate change, so critical to engage students on this issue.