Transcript TRUST - Hans Meijer (1536kb PPT)

Climate Change and Transport
11 December 2007
Hans Meijer
European Commission
DG ENV C3
European Commission: 1
Presentation Overview
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Climate Change introduction
Transport and Climate Change
Fuel Quality
CO2 and cars
Maritime Transport
Aviation
Conclusions
European Commission: 2
Ten warmest years on record
1998
2005
2003
2002
2004
2006
2001
1997
1995
1999
Source UN – International Meteorological Organisation
European Commission: 3
Sea level rise
0.15-0.20 m since 1990
 0.55 – 1.2m by 2100
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European Commission: 4
Climate response times
European Commission: 5
Winners and losers
Changes in Mean
Annual
Temperature
European Commission: 6
EU15 – CO2 emissions (1990 -2004)
European Commission: 7
EU15 Transport GHG Emissions
European Commission: 8
EU climate action
EU has agreed a 20% reduction in GHG
emissions by 2020 compared to 1990 (30% if
other developed countries take similar action)
 -60-80% by 2050 (EU Heads of states, March
2007)
 Transport currently represents almost 30% of
EU GHG emissions.
 Transport is the only major EU sector where
emissions are increasing.
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European Commission: 9
Cost of inaction
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Costs of inaction: 5-20% of global GDP (Stern Review)
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Costs of global action (2030):
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Co-benefits:
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Investment costs: 0.5% of global GDP per year
Reduce global GDP growth by 0.19% per year
Reduce global GDP growth by 0.12 % per year (IPCC WG3)
Increased energy security
Improved competitiveness through innovation
Health benefits from reduced air pollution
Preparation for post fossil fuels
Does not include avoided climate change costs
European Commission: 10
27 Gt of emission reductions
possibilities below € 40 per ton CO2
European Commission: 11
What needs to be done?
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Possibilities
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Reduce demand for transport
Increase energy efficiency of transport
Reduce the greenhouse gas intensity of energy
used in transport
Probably need to do all
Reducing fuel GHG intensity cannot be
done without assessing fuel life cycle
emissions
European Commission: 12
Reducing GHG emissions from road
transport fuel (Low Carbon fuel standard)
European Commission: 13
How did EU LCFS come about?
CO2 and
cars policy
New fossil
fuels
Biofuel policy
Transport GHG
emissions
Low Carbon
Fuel Standard
20% GHG
reduction target
Review of
Directive 98/70
European Commission: 14
Why a LCFS is important
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Increasing diversity of transport energy supply
Focus on the type of fuel is no longer sufficient (all
biofuel is not the same)
To make users pay for the cost of decarbonising
fuel
To provide incentive to develop better low-carbon
fuel technologies
To ensure lowest cost approach to fuel
decarbonisation.
Technology neutral – no picking winners
European Commission: 15
Political steps
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Commission adopted proposal for modification of
Directive 98/70 in Jan 2007
Proposal contains a political objective of 10%
decarbonisation of transport fuel between 2010 and 2020
European Parliament supportive of the proposed
approach, Plenary vote January 2008
Member States in the Council have generally welcomed
the goal. 25 Out of 27 MS support proposal (October 30)
Commission working hard to develop detailed
methodology that will be needed to calculate GHG
savings
European Commission: 16
CO2 and cars
European Commission: 17
Revised CO2 and cars strategy
Communication February 2007 (proposal end 2007):
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120 g delivered in 2012 through an “integrated
approach”
a)
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130 g (46.4mpg) on the vehicle side (fleet average);
10 g through additional measures on car components
(tyres, airco etc.) and increased use of biofuels.
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Review in 2010 to assess potential for progress
beyond 120g/2012
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Estimated cumulated savings 2010-2020: > 800 Mt
CO2eq
European Commission: 18
Revised CO2 and cars strategy (2)
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The automotive value chain remains at
the heart of the new strategy…
Vehicle technology improvements (engine,
transmission, hybridisation, vehicle body etc.)
Efficiency requirements for air-conditioning
systems
Tyre pressure monitoring systems
Low rolling resistance tyres
Gear shift indicators
Mandatory fuel efficiency targets for lightcommercial vehicles
European Commission: 19
Example of a label: Netherlands
European Commission: 20
Heavy duty vehicles
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Commission has recently been studying the
degree of which road haulage sector takes up
potential GHG reducing measures
Report not finalized but clear that there remain
significant opportunities to reduce GHG
emissions
Commission will need to decide what further
action to take when final report is ready
European Commission: 21
International Maritime Transport
European Commission: 22
Progress in IMO / UNFCCC
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Kyoto Protocol – obliges parties to work through
IMO
IMO first addressed issue in 1997
Pilot study on CO2 indexing – will report in 2008
Commitment to ‘consider…methods for dealing’
with GHG emissions 2008/2009
No view on binding reduction measures yet
Post 2012 negotiations to conclude in 2008!
EU aims to include emissions shipping here
European Commission: 23
IMO CO2 Index
European Commission: 24
EU Policy Options
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Actively examining options for EU action
 Option
1 - Include shipping in EU ETS
 Option 2 - Variation in harbour dues
 Option 3 - Mandatory CO2 index limit
 Others…..
European Commission: 25
Aviation
European Commission: 26
Aviation & EU ETS
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Commission proposal for to include aviation activities in EU
ETS adopted end 2006 (COM(2006)818)
CO2 emissions only, details not finalized
Intra-EU flights in 2011, expanded to all flights arriving in or
departing from the EU from 2012
Not apply to flights arriving from 3rd country that has
comparable measures in place
Still discussions on percentage of allowances to be auctioned
and allowances to be allocated for free on basis of a
benchmark
Aircraft operators can buy allowances from other trading
sectors and use CDM credits
European Commission: 27
Aviation & EU ETS: ICAO
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International aviation emissions not included in Kyoto targets,
Annex I Parties to “…pursue limitation or reduction of [GHG
emissions of from aviation], working through the ICAO”
ICAO discussions on market-based measures since 1991 and
emissions trading since 1998
2001 ICAO Assembly:
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Endorsed development open emissions trading for international
aviation;
Requested ICAO Council to develop guidelines as a matter of priority
2007 ICAO Assembly:
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Opposition to application of ETS without mutual consent
Strong difference in opinion resulting in formal reserve on ICAO
resolution by 42 Member States of the European Civil Aviation
Conference (including 27 EU Member States)
European Commission: 28
Next steps
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European Parliament Nov 2007:
Start for incoming & outgoing in 2011
 Cap at 90% of average 2004-6 emissions
 25% auctioning, increased to max level other sectors after
2012
 Multiplier of 2 to reflect NOx emissions
 CDM/JI cap includes access to ETS
 Weight threshold increase for companies in offset schemes
 New entrants reserve
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Council 1st reading by end of 2007
Adoption in the course of 2008
European Commission: 29
Conclusions
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Debate is needed on contribution transport to meeting
EU GHG emission targets
Time frame about 30 years: about the lifetime of ships,
planes, locomotives which are bought now!
Attention to side effects: cost of acting now vs cost of
inaction; reduce GHG can go along with low air
pollution and low noise  better quality of life
At this moment: dependency on transport still increasing
 Better planning offices/factories/shopping centres!
The larger reductions of energy intensity are, the lower
need to reduce transport itself
Transport costs likely to increase but at the moment
small percentage of cost final product.
European Commission: 30
Relevant links
Life + (strategic Priorities: Climate Change, Noise, Urban Areas, Air
Quality)
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/life/funding/lifeplus.htm
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Research to quantify the climate impact of the global and European
transport systems for the present situation and for different scenarios of
future development
http://ip-quantify.eu/
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European Assessment of Transport Impacts on Climate Change and
Ozone Depletion
http://www.ssa-attica.eu
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http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/transport.htm
European Commission: 31
Own role
European Commission: 32