Transcript climate change impacts factsheet_final

building resilience
to climate change
What is climate change?
Climate change refers to the changes of the global
climatic conditions over time globally or regionally.
Climate change is not a new occurrence and has
occurred several times in the history of the Earth over
long spaces of time. Current climate change is due to
large amounts of greenhouse gases (GHG) such as
carbon dioxide (CO2) being released into the
atmosphere by humans in a short time frame.
Atmospheric CO2 levels have increased from 300 ppm
to almost 400 ppm since the advent of the industrial
revolution in the 1800’s. This increase in GHG levels
has led to the atmosphere retaining more heat, which
otherwise would have escaped into space, resulting in
the average temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere
increasing by 0.8°C in only 100 years. A further
increase of 1.4°C to 5.8°C is projected by global
climate models by 2100.
Sources of GHG emissions
There are six major human induced GHGs. These
include CO2; methane (CH4); nitrous oxide (N2O); and
three fluorinated gases (FC, PFC, SF6). The sources of
these gases mainly emanate from burning of fossil
fuels in coal power plants and transport vehicles;
cement factories; deforestation; land use change;
agriculture and refrigeration and other manufacturing
processes. The lifetimes of the gases vary significantly.
Studies show that CO2 remains in the atmosphere for
approximately 50 years while some of the FCs lasting
up to 50 000 years and having up to 30 000 times the
potency of CO2 as a GHG.
Sources of GHGs in South Africa
South Africa is one of the higher GHG emitting
countries per capita in the world, producing 440
megatons CO2eq or 1.2% of the worlds GHG. This is
due to half of emissions being generated by the
electricity sector which is coal dominated,
producing large amounts of CO2. SASOL also
contributes another 10% to the total, and it is the
world’s highest single point emitter. SA produces 10
tons of CO2 per capita which is about 40% higher
than the global average and highest among the
other developing countries that are coal-based
including China (3.8 tons/capita) and India (1.5
tons/capita).
Predicted temperature increases
The climate models predict that the atmospheric
temperatures will rise between 1.4 and 5.8°C by the
end of the 21st century, depending on the levels of
GHG emissions reached and whether these levels
can be stabilised and reduced. These climate
models present possible scenarios for climate
change with increasing temperatures but it is
important to know that there are many
uncertainties and unknowns with the future being
highly unpredictable. For more details on these
impacts and various projects surrounding climate
change see www.fco.gov.uk/4degrees. Scientists,
anthropologists, policy makers, civil society and
leaders throughout the globe are working together
to understand these impacts so that we can
mitigate and adapt to climate change.
www.cap.org.za
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The global impacts of 1°C rise
•Small mountain glaciers disappear, threatening
water supplies for 50 million people
•Cereal yields in temperate regions increase slightly
•Climate-related diseases (such as diarrhoae,
cardio-vascular and infectious diseases) increase but
winter mortality in Northern Europe and US drops
•80% of coral reefs are bleached
•The Atlantic thermohaline ocean circulation
weakens
The global impacts of 2°C rise
•Water availability in parts of southern Africa and
Mediterranean decline by 20- 30%
•Crop yields in Africa drop by 5% - 10%
• Risk of malaria increases significantly
•10 million more people affected by coastal flooding
•Arctic species run a high risk of extinction
•Greenland ice sheet begins an irreversible melt
•Up to 30% of species at risk of extinction
•Sea level rise threatens small islands and low-lying
coastal areas
The global impacts of 3°C rise
•Southern Europe experiences serious drought
every 10 years
•1 to 4 billion more people experience water
shortages; up to 5 billion gain water but suffer flood
damage
•1 to 3 million more people die from malnutrition
•The risk of abrupt changes in monsoons climbs
•West Antarctic ice sheet and the Atlantic
thermohaline ocean circulation will collapse
changing ocean currents
•The global impacts of 4°C rise
•Rain water availability in southern Africa, Amazon
basin and Mediterranean could drop by 30% - 50%
•African agricultural yields drop by 15% - 35%
• 80 million more Africans are exposed to malaria
• 7 to 300 million people are affected by coastal
flooding
The global impacts of 5°C rise
•Some of the large Himalayan glaciers disappear
•Ocean acidity continues to rise; marine ecosystems
are seriously disrupted
For more information please contact:
Sarshen Marais
Climate Action Partnership Manager
[email protected]
tel: +27 21 799 8834
fax: +27 21 762 6838
Centre for Biodiversity Conservation
Kirstenbosch Botanical Gardens
Private Bag X7
Claremont
7735
Predicted impacts of climate change in SA
Rising temperatures will have many possible impacts
such as shifts in crop seasons affecting food security
and changing the distribution of disease vectors thus
putting more people at risk. Temperature increases
will enhance rates of extinction for many species.
Changing rainfall patterns will effect water resources
which are already under pressure. Increasing sea
levels mean greater risk of storm surge and wave
damage to coastlines, particularly low-lying areas
where there is destroyed natural vegetation. At
400ppm, between 1 and 3°C increases are expected
causing heat stress. Average rainfall is projected to
decrease by 5-10% or more in areas like the Succulent
Karoo. The east of the country is projected to
become wetter, and the west drier. The distribution
of rainfall may change and an increase in severe
weather events. There are also combinations of both
drought and flash floods predicted. Nevertheless,
predictions are uncertain and we are not aware of the
thresholds which our systems will reach.
These impacts will affect all facets of our society and
will require a fundamental shift in the way we think
and operate particularly in sectors such as urban
planning, agriculture, catchment management and
conservation. Therefore, we must not only aim to
reduce our emissions and mitigate climate change
but also adapt to these changes using strategies that
are flexible enough to cope with a range of climate
conditions. There are lots of opportunities to make
communities and habitats more resilient to these
changes and depending on the impacts for a specific
area, innovative adaptation measures will vary. CAP
supports ecosystem-based adaptation approaches
such as reforestation; the restoration of soil and
water services; the creation of natural corridors - all
of which help secure food, health and livelihoods for
people and species to adapt to these changes.
The Climate Action Partnership (CAP)
CAP as an alliance of conservation NGOs is focused
on restoring and maintaining ecosystems as a
method to assist us mitigate climate change but also
help nature and communities adapt to climate
change. To find out more about our projects, visit our
website.
www.cap.org.za