Transcript Climate Change and India: Presentation to Paschimbanga Vigyan

Climate Change and India:
Presentation to India-EU
Round Table
Prodipto Ghosh, Ph.D
Distinguished Fellow
The Energy & Resources Institute
19 September 2007
I. What is anthropogenic climate
change?
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Suite of gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, etc,) emitted
from various economic activities: Fossil fuel
use, wet paddy cultivation, cattle raising,
fertilizer use, etc.
Growing (but not mature) forests absorb
(“sequester”) CO2, the major GHG
Increasing concentrations of these gases in the
atmosphere have same effect as a greenhouse,
hence “Greenhouse gases” (GHGs). The
resulting increase in temperature may impact
many climate parameters
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Country
CO2 (tons) per
capita
Energy (kgoe)
per $ GDP
(PPP in yr
2000)
India
1.2
5.5
China
3.2
4.4
France
6.2
5.9
Germany
9.8
6.2
Japan
9.6
6.4
UK
9.4
7.3
USA
19.9
5.2
Source: The World Bank. World average of per capita CO2 is 4.3 tons
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Across all
scenarios,
average
warming is
0.2°C per
decade
Committed
warming
averages
0.1°C per
decade for
next two
decades
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The UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change, 1992
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The UNFCCC set forth certain principles for
addressing climate change by a global effort, in
particular, that of “common but differentiated
responsibilities” of countries; that development
is the foremost concern of developing countries,
etc.
It also gave a “soft target” for industrialized
countries (Annex I Parties) to return to 1990
levels of GHG emissions by 2000
All major countries, inc. US, EU, India, China,
have ratified the Convention
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Kyoto Protocol, 1997:
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Legally binding Protocol setting out:
Targets for GHG reductions by individual
industrialized countries during “first commitment
period”, 2008-2012, totaling 5.2% below their
aggregate 1990 emissions; actual percentages vary
by Party
3 “cooperative implementation mechanisms” setting
up a global market in carbon credits: Clean
Development Mechanism, applicable to developing
countries, operational since 2000
US, Australia have not ratified; EU, China, India,
Brazil are Parties (Total 161 Parties)
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II. Climate Change Impacts,
Mitigation, and Adaptation
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Difference between natural climate variability
and anthropogenic climate change
Summary of IPCC 4th Assessment Report on
Impacts
Monitored changes in India’s key climate
parameters
India’s energy policies and their GHG effect
India’s response to natural variability
Suggested way forward
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Likely Impacts of Climate Change
Difference
between
natural climate
variability and
anthropogenic
climate change
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Variation of all-India
surface air
temperatures
Trends in annual
mean, maximum and
minimum
temperatures and
diurnal temperature
range during the 20th
century.
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All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2003)
Source: IITM homogeneous monthly rainfall data base
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Current knowledge about future
impacts: ASIA
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Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase
flooding, rock avalanches from destabilized slopes, and
affect water resources within the next two to three
decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as
the glaciers recede.
Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and
Southeast Asia particularly in large river basins is
projected to decrease due to climate change which, along
with population growth and increasing demand arising
from higher standards of living, could adversely affect
more than a billion people by the 2050s.
Coastal areas, especially heavily-populated mega-delta
regions in South, East and Southeast Asia, will be at
greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and in
some mega-deltas flooding from the rivers.
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Current knowledge about future impacts:
ASIA
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Climate change is projected to impinge on sustainable development of
most developing countries of Asia as it compounds the pressures on
natural resources and the environment associated with rapid
urbanisation, industrialisation, and economic development.
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It is projected that crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and
Southeast Asia while it could decrease up to 30% in Central and
South Asia by the mid-21st century. Taken together and considering
the influence of rapid population growth and urbanization, the risk of
hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing
countries.
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Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily
associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise in East,
South and Southeast Asia due to projected changes in hydrological
cycle associated with global warming. Increases in coastal water
temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of
cholera in South Asia.
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Current knowledge about responding
to climate change
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Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed and
projected future climate change, but on a very
limited basis.
Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts
resulting from warming which is already unavoidable
due to past emissions.
A wide array of adaptation options is available, but
more extensive adaptation than is currently
occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to future
climate change. There are barriers, limits and costs,
but these are not fully understood.
Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated
by the presence of other stresses, esp. poverty
Future vulnerability depends not only on climate
change but also on development pathway.
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Current knowledge about responding to
climate change
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Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, they
are very likely to impose net annual costs which will
increase over time as global temperatures increase
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While there has been significant improvement in
scientific understanding of climate change in the past 20
years, there remains considerable uncertainty about the
nature, timing, spatial distribution, and severity of
particular impacts. In particular, none of the global
climate models can be validated with respect to changes
in rainfall over the Indian land-mass
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Systematic observation and research needs
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III. Myths about India and Climate
Change
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Myth 1: India is an energy profligate
Myth 2: India does not take climate impacts
seriously
Myth 3: India’s development path is
unsustainable
Myth 4: Abatement of GHG emissions is lowcost
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Response to Myth 1: India’s current energy
policies and their outcomes (partial list):
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Improving energy efficiency
Promoting hydro and renewable energy
Power sector reforms
Promotion of clean coal technologies
Energy and infrastructure development
Coal washing
Cleaner and lesser carbon intensive fuel for
transport
Environmental quality management (EIA appraisal
for significant development projects)
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India’s Energy Policies: Scenarios simulated
by MARKAL (2001-2036)
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Baseline: Base year 2001
GDP growth rate 8%
Official demographic projections
IPCC emissions factors
8% social discount rate
Scenarios:
S1: Cleaner fuels for power generation
S2: Electricity for all by 2012
decentralized renewable options
efficient cook stoves
S3: 20% increase in share of public road transport
Greater use of CNG in buses, taxis, 3-W vehicles
S4: S1+S2+S3
S5: Baseline with average annual GDP growth rate 6.7%
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CO2 emissions
MMT
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Year
BASELINE
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
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Source: TERI, 2006
India’s actual carbon intensity performance
Compounded Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) of Indian GHG
emissions during 1985 to 2005
8
7
CAGR (%)
6
5
CAGR (CO2)
CAGR (CH4)
CAGR (N2O)
4
3
2
1
0
1985
1990
1994
2000
2005
Source: MoEF, 2007
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Decreasing Energy Intensity Behind India’s
Sustainable Development
0.31
0.29
0.27
0.25
0.23
0.21
0.19
0.17
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
0.15
1971
TPES (kgoe)/GDP ($2000 PPP)
Ene rgy inte ns ity of GDP (k goe /$ 2000 PPP) bas e d
on IEA data
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Source: Plg. Comm. 2006
Indian industry and energy efficiency
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Major energy using sectors – steel cement,
aluminum, etc. have become more energy
efficient over the past 20 years
The following graphs depict changes in
average energy intensities; incremental
changes are much sharper.
The newer plants are among the most energy
efficient globally
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Source: BEE, 2007
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Source: BEE, 2007
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Source: BEE, 2007
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Response to Myth 2: India’s actions on
climate variability:
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The most effective response strategy for
anthropogenic climate change is poverty
alleviation
Specific areas of concern include:
- Agriculture
- Water resources
- Health and sanitation
- Coastal Zones
- Forests
- Extreme weather events
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7 Major Components of Adaptation
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Crop improvement & research (22)
Drought proofing & flood control (19)
Health improvement and prevention of disease (19)
Risk financing (6)
Disaster management (6)
Forest conservation (12)
Poverty alleviation and livelihood preservation (30)
(Figures in brackets indicate number of Schemes
identified under each category)
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Percentage of Adaptation Expenditure to Total
Fiscal Expenditure and GDP
Value of Expenditure
12
10
8
Expenditure on adaptation as
% of total Govt. expenditure
6
Expenditure on adaptation as
% of GDP
4
2
0
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
Year
Source: MoEF, 2007
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Relative expenditures on major Adaptation
schemes by thematic area
Crop Improvement &
Research
7.93%
Crop Improvement
& Research
Drought Proofing
Drought Proofing
15.97%
Health
Risk Financing
Health
13.77%
Poverty Alleiviation and
Livelihood preservation
59.34%
Disaster
Management
Forestry
Risk Financing
1.63%
Disaster Management
0.38%
Poverty Alleiviation
and Livelihood
preservation
Forestry
0.97%
Source: MoEF, 2007
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IV. Response to Myth 3: Sustainability of
Production and Consumption Patterns
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Relevance
Select Indicators:
- Energy inputs per unit of output
energy delivered through food
- Waste generation and recycling
- Energy & emissions per unit of
passenger transportation movement
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Energy inputs per unit of output
energy delivered through food
The energy inputs and resultant
emissions in the cycle of growing the
food, transporting, processing, packaging
and preserving it till it reaches the table
vary significantly between India, China,
and developed countries. This reflects not
poverty, but lifestyle choices.
CO2 emission from food sector--from Field (production) to
Table (processed food)-excluding cooking
Production related CO2 emission (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)
Processing related CO2 emissions (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)
Total CO2 emissions (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)
ton CO2/m kcal of food energy
2.50
2.25
2.00
1.7
1.75
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.2
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.1
0.1
0.00
India
China
United
Kingdom
Germany
Netherlands
Australia
United States
Source: TERI analysis (various data sources)
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Waste generation and recycling
Consumption patterns also have a direct
impact on the wastes that a society
generates. In developed societies not only
is there higher waste generation but also
relatively lower recycling. Can we move to
a lifestyle that entails lower packaging and
higher recycling and hence lower usage of
plastics, glass and paper? What may it
imply for GHG emissions?
Municipal solid waste
Average rate of recycling (%) (excl. re-use)
70
80
53
47.3
60
30
40
20
0
US
Germany
Japan
India
GHG emissions from waste (gm/’000$GDPppp)
25
23
20
15
10
10
8
4
5
0
USA
UK
Germany
India
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Source: TERI Analysis, based on National Communications of different countries
Energy & emissions per unit of
transportation movement
Sustainable mobility: shift from
personalized modes of transportation to
public modes of transportation, greater
reliance on clean fuels and cleaner
technologies, a shift towards IT based
societies have major implications for GHG
emissions.
Estimated CO2 emissions from passenger transport
(gm/passenger-km)
250
193
200
150
118
100
50
16
0
India
EU (15 countries)
USA
Source: TERI Analysis, various data sources
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Response to Myth 4: MARKAL model estimates of costs of
GHG abatement Cumulative incremental investment
requirements
100%
Cumulative incremental investment requirements
(Billion US$)
2530
2400
80%
1800
60%
1394
1200
40%
717
600
20%
341
153
0
0%
-2.5%
-3.9%
-6.0%
-7.9%
-9.7%
2026
2031
2036
-600
Change in cumulative CO2 emissions from baseline (%)
3000
-20%
2016
2021
Year
SMEs
Pow er
Renew able
Res & Com
Emissions Red
Total
Biodiesel
The total incremental cost for reduction of GHG in India by 9.7%
from baseline in 2036 is $ 2.53 Trillion!
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Cumulative incremental investment requirements
and GDP of different countries in 2004
12000
10704
GDP (Billion US$)
10000
8000
6000
4932
4000
1953
1903
2000
1415
1591
581
US
A
Ja
pa
n
an
y
Ge
rm
na
Ch
i
UK
Fr
an
ce
In
di
a
0
GDP at 2000 prices
Cumulative incremental investment requirements:
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Comparison with 2004 GDP levels
Change in discounted energy system cost
(2001-36)…
Change in discounted system cost
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
-0.5%
Redcution of CO2 emissions from baseline
Reduction of GHG emissions by 9.7% from baseline
by 2036 would involve economic loss of $ 180
Billion
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India’s Broad Approach to International
negotiations of a global climate change regime
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India is not a significant contributor to climate change
in the past, at present, or likely to be in the near future,
as revealed by actual empirical data, and modeling
results on future carbon intensities
However, India is among the worst sufferers of climate
change caused by industrialized countries!
India has taken a number of policies and measures to
address both mitigation and adaptation and is
preparing a national action plan on climate change
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India’s broad approach…
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India can only consider international commitments to
control GHG emissions on the basis of global
convergence to equal per capita rights, otherwise
our poverty alleviation efforts will be severely affected,
and the world will be permanently divided into “the
rich man in his castle, the poor man at his gate”!
Technology and financial transfers for addressing
climate change, both GHG abatement and adaptation
to impacts must be ensured under any future
international climate change regime.
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