Transcript Role of Insight Teams

“Persons who Pretend to Predict
the future shall be considered
disorderly and will be liable to
a fine of $300
or 3 months in jail.”
Criminal Code of New York c.1900
Forecasting & Scenario
Planning
Insight SIG November 2010
Panel Members
Julian Young
Jon Kelly
Kirsty Neal
Bob Francis
RSPB
Wood for Trees
Breakthrough Breast Cancer
Cancer Research UK
Role of Insight Teams
• Grant funding
• Legacies
• Regular giving,
membership
• Gift Aid
• Trading
• Major Gifts
• Community
Fundraising
• Ad hoc: appeals,
gaming etc
Forecasting Techniques
Micro
• Statistical
Analysis
• Modelling
Macro
• Market sizing
• External inputs
Statistical Analysis
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Descriptive Statistics
Time series analysis
Regression/Correlation
Breakeven analysis
Payback and other ROI techniques
Modelling
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Sales force composite
Delphi/Executive Panels
PAM - probability assessment method
PERT - programme evaluation and review
techniques
Market Sizing
Sales Forecast =
Market Size X Market Share
External Inputs
• Legacies
– Legacy Foresight
• TGI
• Economic forecasts
Seminar Questions
First: a couple of hands up
questions.
Seminar Questions
Is your team/dept:
A. Responsible for generating forecasts? or
B. Give help to business areas? or
C. Not involved in forecasting?
Seminar Questions Cont
Role of Insight Teams
• Grant funding
• Legacies
• Regular giving,
membership
• Gift Aid
• Trading
• Major Gifts
• Community
Fundraising
• Ad hoc: appeals,
gaming etc
Seminar Questions Cont
What’s the difference between a forecast and
a budget?
A target?
Are we and our colleagues clear?
Seminar Questions Cont
What do our colleagues expect in
terms of accuracy of forecasts? And
how do we manage expectations?
What data do we need to be able to
forecast accurately?
Seminar Questions Cont
What techniques have you found
useful?
How can technology help? Stats,
modelling.
Seminar Questions Cont
What can/should the SIG do to further
forecasting and modelling?
What are your training needs?