Transcript The AIACC Project (Opening) - global change SysTem for Analysis

The AIACC Project
Assessments
of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate
Change in Multiple Regions & Sectors
AIACC Africa Region Meeting
Hartebeespoortdam, South Africa
10 March 2003
Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature (IPCC, 2001)
Developing countries are
particularly vulnerable
• Significant exposures to potentially adverse
impacts on crop yields, human health, water
• Large share of population earns livelihoods from
climate sensitive activities (agriculture, livestock,
fisheries)
• Large share of population lives in extreme poverty
• Low capacity to adapt due to low levels of human,
financial, natural, physical and technological
resources; limited institutional capabilities
Attention is focusing on adaptation
• Climate is changing and will continue to
change
• Many are vulnerable
• Adaptation needs to go forward in hand
with mitigation
• CoP decisions in Bonn and Marrkech
– Invitation to submit NAPAs
– Establishment of adaptation fund, other funds
Developing sound adaptation strategies
requires good science
• Scientific investigation needed to answer:
– Who are most vulnerable?
– What are the causes of their vulnerability?
– What are their options for adaptation and what
are the consequences and costs of adaptation?
• Answering these questions can help to
identify effective adaptation strategies
AIACC Partners
• AIACC is a partnership among GEF, UNEP, START,
TWAS, IPCC, and developing country institutions
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GEF provides the principal funding
UNEP is the implementing agency
START and TWAS are the executing agencies
Participating institutions in developing countries have
provided collateral funding
– Additional funding comes from USAID, USEPA, CIDA
and World Bank
AIACC Objectives
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Advance scientific understanding
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Build and enhance scientific & technical capacity in
developing countries
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Of climate change I, A & V in developing country regions.
To investigate I, A & V and
To participate in international scientific assessments (e.g. IPCC, MA)
Contribute to National Communications, NAPAs and
adaptation planning
Means to achieving objectives
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Fund regional research projects
Provide training and mentoring
Engage stakeholders in the project
Link with National Communications
Establish a network of scientists and stakeholders
to endure beyond the AIACC project
AIACC funds regional research
• 150+ proposals submitted
• Proposals were peer reviewed
• 24 Awards made in 2002 based on
– Scientific merit
– Regional significance
– Endorsed by GEF National Focal Points
• $100k-$250k awarded to regional studies for 2-3
years of research
• Regional studies add to scientific knowledge and
capacity
AIACC studies active in
46 developing countries
• Each study involves a team of scientists
from multiple disciplines
– 235+ scientists from developing countries
participating as investigators
– 60+ graduate and undergraduate students
– 40+ scientists from developed countries
collaborating
AIACC provides training
• Global training workshops
• Regional workshops organized by regional
study teams
• Additional small grants to AIACC
participants (USAID supported)
– Visiting scientist exchanges
– Develop & implement own training activities
AIACC Provides Mentoring
Team of 10 AIACC mentors to assist throughout
the project
– Advice on methods, data,
scenarios, models
– Troubleshooting
– Referrals to other sources
of expertise
– Encourage/facilitate peer
review publication
– Encourage/facilitate
contributions to National
Communications
Stakeholders, Nat’l
Communications, Networks
• AIACC engages stakeholders
– For input to objectives, approaches, evaluation of adaptations,
review of outputs
• AIACC links with National Communications
– Each regional study making contact with relevant ministries,
committees, persons
• AIACC builds networks
– Through participation in studies, workshops, “discuss aiacc” listserve, and web-based database and information network
Commonalities among regional studies
• Most are interested in
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Near-term consequences of climate change for people
Interactions with other stresses or threats
Human and social aspects of vulnerability
Response strategies (i.e. adaptation) that would lessen risks
from climate change AND address other more immediate
threats
• Has led many AIACC studies to take a “2nd
Generation” approach to assessment
2nd-Generation Assessments
• Emphasize understanding human side of
vulnerabilities
– Who is vulnerable to harm? From what? Why?
• Explore multiple, interacting stresses
– Climate change, extreme weather, population growth, land
use change, urbanization, land degradation . . .
• Evaluate responses, adaptations
– Focus responses on causes of vulnerability
• Engage stakeholders
– Enhance relevance, utility, credibility
AIACC Regional Studies in N &W Africa
Egypt, Morocco,
Tunisia
•Agriculture
•Water
•Historical impacts of variability
•Crop modeling future impacts
•Irrigation water S&D
•Adaptations
Sudan
•Human
settlements
•Agriculture
•Vulnerability to climatic hazards
•Food security
•Environmental mgt adaptations
Nigeria, Niger
•Agriculture
•Crop modeling future impacts
•Seasonal forecasts
Nigeria, Mali
•Rural
settlements
•Agriculture
•Vuln.of demog. groups to drought
•Impact thresholds, risk analysis
•Adaptations
West Africa
(0-30oN,
15oW-20oE)
•Climate
•Diag. eval. of GCM projections
•Statistical & dynamical downscaling
for W. Africa
AIACC Regional Studies in Eastern & Southern Africa
Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda
•Human Health
•Sensitivities of malaria and cholera incidence to
climate; model & project future risks
•Evaluate adaptive responses
South Africa
•Biodiversity
•Predictive models of plant & animal responses to
climate
•Adaptation to conserve biodiversity
Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia,
Zimbabwe, Tanzania
•Agriculture
•Water
•Land-use
•Integrated assessment (MIMOSA)
•Primary focus on land-use
Botswana
•Agriculture
•Water
•Land-use
•Present water, food conditions
•Int. Assess. of future impacts
•Adaptations
South Africa, Gambia
•Water
•Agriculture
•Benefit-cost analysis of adaptations
Sub-Saharan Africa
•Climate
•Diag. eval. of GCM projections
•Stat. & dyn. downscaling for sub-Saharan Africa
AIACC Regional Studies in Small Islands
Caribbean
•Human Health
•Investigate/model health responses to climate
(dengue)
•Future health impacts of climate change
•Adaptations
Fiji, Cook
Islands
•Water
•Coastal
infrastructure
•Natural resources
•IAM, extended to include human dimensions
•Adaptations
Seychelles
Comoros
•Tourism
•Natural resources
•Direct impacts of climate change & SLR on tourism
•Indirect impacts on tourism from effects on natural
resources
•Adaptations
Anticipated outcomes
• Advance science
– Publication of peer reviewed papers, thematic reports that expand
literature on developing country I, A and V
– Citation of AIACC findings in IPCC & MA reports
• Build capacity
– Participants continue their research and link to policy
– Increased numbers of developing country researchers engaged in IPCC,
global change research
• Contribute to National Communications
– AIACC participants collaborate in preparation of Nat’l Communications
– Use of AIACC findings in National Communicaitons