Transcript Neil Leary - START - SysTem for Analysis Research and Training

The AIACC Project
Assessments
of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate
Change in Multiple Regions & Sectors
AIACC Latin America/Caribbean
Region Meeting
San Jose, Costa Rica
27-30 May 2003
AIACC Objectives
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Advance scientific understanding
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Build and enhance scientific & technical capacity in
developing countries
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Of climate change I, A & V in developing country regions.
To investigate I, A & V and
To participate in international scientific assessments (e.g. IPCC, MA)
Contribute to National Communications, NAPAs and
adaptation planning
AIACC Partners
• AIACC is a partnership among GEF, UNEP, START,
TWAS, IPCC, and developing country institutions
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GEF provides the principal funding
UNEP is the implementing agency
START and TWAS are the executing agencies
Participating institutions in developing countries have
provided collateral funding
– Additional funding comes from USAID, USEPA, CIDA
and World Bank
Means to achieving objectives
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Fund regional research projects
Provide training and mentoring
Engage stakeholders in the project
Link with National Communications
Establish a network of scientists and stakeholders
to endure beyond the AIACC project
AIACC studies active in
46 developing countries
• 24 regional studies funded
• Each study involves a team of scientists
from multiple disciplines
– 235+ scientists from developing countries
participating as investigators
– 60+ graduate and undergraduate students
– 40+ scientists from developed countries
collaborating
Stakeholders, Nat’l
Communications, Networks
• AIACC engages stakeholders
– For input to objectives, approaches, evaluation of adaptations,
review of outputs
• AIACC links with National Communications
– Each regional study making contact with relevant ministries,
committees, persons
• AIACC builds networks
– Through participation in studies, workshops, “discuss aiacc” listserve, and web-based database and information network
Commonalities among regional studies
• Most are interested in
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Near-term consequences of climate change for people
Interactions with other stresses or threats
Human and social aspects of vulnerability
Response strategies (i.e. adaptation) that would lessen risks
from climate change AND address other more immediate
threats
• Has led many AIACC studies to take a “2nd
Generation” approach to assessment
2nd-Generation Assessments
• Emphasize understanding human side of
vulnerabilities
– Who is vulnerable to harm? From what? Why?
• Explore multiple, interacting stresses
– Climate change, extreme weather, population growth, land
use change, urbanization, land degradation . . .
• Evaluate responses, adaptations
– Focus responses on causes of vulnerability
• Engage stakeholders
– Enhance relevance, utility, credibility
AIACC Regional Studies in Latin America
Central America
•Water
•Agriculture
•Coastal
•Vulnerabilities to extreme events
& climate change
•Adaptations
Argentina,
Uruguay
•Agriculture
•Impacts on mixed grain/grazed
agricultural systems
•Adaptations
Argentina,
Uruguay
•Human
settlements
•Coastal natural
resources
•Vulnerabilities to tide floods,
storm, sea level rise, climate change
•Adaptations
Uruguay
•Estuarine
ecosystem
•Fisheries
•Water
•Vulnerabilities of estuary & human
uses
•Adaptations
Mexico, Argentina
•Agriculture
•Water
•Rural settlements
•Farm level analysis of risk mgt.
And adaptation
•Effects of existing/past policies
on vulnerabilities
AIACC Regional Studies in Small Islands
Caribbean
•Human Health
•Investigate/model health responses to climate
(dengue)
•Future health impacts of climate change
•Adaptations
Fiji, Cook
Islands
•Water
•Coastal
infrastructure
•Natural resources
•IAM, extended to include human dimensions
•Adaptations
Seychelles
Comoros
•Tourism
•Natural resources
•Direct impacts of climate change & SLR on tourism
•Indirect impacts on tourism from effects on natural
resources
•Adaptations
Anticipated outcomes
• Advance science
– Publication of peer reviewed papers, thematic reports that expand
literature on developing country I, A and V
– Citation of AIACC findings in IPCC & MA reports
• Build capacity
– Participants continue their research and link to policy
– Increased numbers of developing country researchers engaged in IPCC,
global change research
• Contribute to National Communications
– AIACC participants collaborate in preparation of Nat’l Communications
– Use of AIACC findings in National Communicaitons