Transcript PPT 708 KB - global change SysTem for Analysis, Research

The AIACC Project
Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to
Climate Change
Neil Leary, AIACC Science Director
2nd AIACC Regional Workshop
for Asia and Pacific Islands
Manila, 2-5 November 2004
Background
• GEF enabling project
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– climate change focal area
Geographic scope: Global
Project period: 2001-2005
Implementing Agency: UNEP
Executing Agencies: START & TWAS
Collaboration between IPCC, UNEP,
START, and TWAS
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Funding
• GEF Grant
• Developing country
partner co-financing
• USAID
• CIDA
• USEPA
• Rockefeller Foundation
• Total project cost
$7.5 million
$1.8 million
$300 thousand
$100 thousand
$50 thousand
$40 thousand
$9.79 million
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AIACC Objectives
• Build scientific and technical capacity to
support National Communications and
developing country participation in int’l science
• Advance scientific understanding of climate
change impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation
opportunities
• Link science and policy communities for
adaptation planning
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Means for achieving objectives
• Implement regional V&A assessments
– “Learning-By-Doing” capacity building
• Supplement by technical support,
mentoring, training, and networking
• Engage stakeholders
• Work with National Communications
• Synthesis
• Workshops, publications, science &
stakeholder meetings
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Topics of Regional Assessments
(Number of projects addressing each topic noted in parentheses)
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Agriculture/food security (14)
Water resources (13)
Land use (7)
Rural livelihoods (5)
Coastal zones (5)
Biodiversity (3)
Aquatic ecosystems, fisheries (3)
Human health (2)
Extreme events (2)
Tourism (1)
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AIACC Regional Studies in Asia
Mongolia
•Agriculture
•Rangelands
•Water
•Trends in vulnerability to climate
•Modeling grassland, crop, water impacts
•Adaptations
Thailand,
Cambodia,
Laos, Vietnam
•Water
•Agriculuture
•Land use
• Ecosystems
•Modeling hydrologic changes, land use, crop
yield changes
•Vulnerability to hydrologic changes & extremes
•Adaptations
Sri Lanka
•Plantation
agriculture
•Model tea & coconut responses to climate
variation & change
•Social & economic impacts
•Adaptations
Philippines,
Indonesia
•Water
•Agriculture
•Ecosystems
•Land-use/cover changes, forest, water,
agriculture impacts
•Social & economic impacts
•Adaptations
China
•Water
•Agriculture
•Land-use
•IA to identify social vulnerabilities
•Multi-criteria evaluation of adaptations
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AIACC Regional Studies in Small Island States
Caribbean
•Human Health
•Investigate/model health responses to climate
(dengue)
•Future health impacts of climate change
•Adaptations
Fiji, Cook
Islands
•Water
•Coastal
infrastructure
•Natural resources
•Integrated assessment models extended to include
human dimensions
•Vulnerability of coastal communities
•Adaptations
Seychelles
Comoros
•Tourism
•Natural resources
•Direct impacts of climate change & SLR on tourism
•Indirect impacts on tourism from effects on natural
resources
•Adaptations
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AIACC Accomplishments (1)
• Contributing to goals of UNFCCC
– Established strong ties to 2nd National
Communications
– Contributed to NAPA guidelines & workshops
– Adding to UNFCCC V&A methods/tools
database
– Participated in UNFCCC expert meetings on
adaptation
– Contributed to UNDP’s Adaptation Policy
Framework
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AIACC Accomplishments (2)
• Advancing knowledge & methods
– 15 papers published in peer-reviewed journals
– 7 papers published in AIACC Working Papers
• 20 more in review
– Advanced methods for:
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climate scenario generation
vulnerability indicators
livelihood approaches
integrated assessment modeling
benefit/cost analysis of adaptation
– Contributing to UNFCCC’s database of V&A methods and
tools
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AIACC Accomplishments (3)
• Contributing to international science
– IPCC 4th Assessment Report
• Contributed to outline & plans for IPCC AR4
• 33(!) AIACC investigators chosen to be authors of
IPCC AR4
– Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
• 2 projects contributing to MEA reports
– Global Environmental Change & Food Security
(GECAFS)
– Presentations in international science meetings
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AIACC Accomplishments (4)
• Building capacity
– Capacity for scientific/technical V&A assessment
• >200 scientists and >60 students in 46 developing countries have
benefited from “learning-by-doing” and training activities
– Capacity to engage with stakeholders and formulate
adaptation strategies and policies
• Have established networks that link science & stakeholder
institutions from 62 countries
– Stakeholder knowledge & awareness
• Numerous local workshops with stakeholders
– South-south capacity transfers
• AIACC participants have conducted several successful south-south
capacity transfer activities
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Upcoming AIACC Activities
Completion of regional assessments by early
2005
• More peer-reviewed publications, technical
reports
• Synthesis of AIACC regional studies in
2005 – 2 books planned
• Outreach to stakeholders, national
communications
• Planning for follow-on to AIACC
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AIACC Synthesis of common lessons
• Two themes selected for synthesis in 2005
– Vulnerability
– Adapatation
• Book to be written on each theme
– Case study papers from regional assessments &
synthesis paper
• Synthesis meetings to prepare the papers
– Vulnerability: March2005, Bellagio, Italy
– Adaptation: June 2005, Venue TBD
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Follow-up to AIACC
• Build on the accomplishments of AIACC
– Apply what we have learned to adaptation
planning and measures
– Broaden and deepen capacity building
– Add to our scientific and technical knowledge
to improve decision making
– Sustain & enhance networks we’ve established
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New Projects
• Adaptation pilot projects
– Medium size regional projects
• Asia-Pacific; Africa; Latin America and Caribbean
• New regional assessments
– Policy-focused, participatory assessments
– Technical assistance, capacity building
delivered by distributed networks in South
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Thank you
www.aiaccproject.org
Preliminary Lessons (1)
• Stakeholder participation in assessment is critical
for generating and communicating knowledge that
gets used
– Targeted to decision making needs
– Integrate knowledge, experiences of practitioners
– Credibility with affected groups, decision makers
• Requires set of skills most researchers don’t have
• Relationships important
– Relationships being established between science and
stakeholder institutions one of the more important
legacies of AIACC project
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Preliminary lessons (2)
• Experience of coping with and managing
climate risks is rich source of information
from which to learn about
– System sensitivities, resilience and capacities
– Determinants of vulnerability
– Strategies to cope, adapt
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Preliminary Lessons (3)
• Important to look at multiple scales
– Sub-units within a region, community etc have
varying degrees and types of vulnerability,
capacities to respond
– Cross-scale interactions important
– Focusing on single scale may lead to
• misdiagnosed capacities, vulnerabilities,
thresholds
• prescription of ineffective adaptations
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Preliminary Lessons (4)
• Important to look at multiple futures
– Socioeconomic as well as climate futures
– Socioeconomic drivers probably more important
drivers of vulnerability than climate
• Multiple scenarios needed to investigate implications
of different possible futures for vulnerability and
adaptation
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Preliminary Lessons (5)
• Best method for constructing climate
change scenarios depends on assessment
objectives
– Regional climate modeling not always needed nor
best
– Fidelity to GCM derived climate scenarios not
critically important for investigation of
vulnerabilities
– Guided sensitivity analyses important first step
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Preliminary Lessons (6)
• Livelihoods is useful concept for vulnerability
assessment
– Changes in climate & other stresses restrict or expand
livelihood opportunities
– People adapt their livelihood strategies in response to
changing opportunities
– Consequences for their well-being will depend on how
effective these adaptations are
• Livelihoods integrate consequences of multiple
stresses on human well-being
• Vulnerabilities vary for different livelihood groups
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