Transcript Snowmass Presentation - START - SysTem for Analysis Research

Assessments
of Impacts and Adaptations to
Climate Change in
(AIACC)
Neil Leary
Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Workshop on
Climate Change Impacts and Integrated Assessment
July 29 - August 7, 2002
Implementing, Executing &
Collaborating Agencies
• UN Environment Programme (UNEP)
• Global SysTem for Analysis, Research and
Training (START)
• Third World Academy of Sciences (TWAS)
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC)
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AIACC Funding Sources
• Global Environment Facility (GEF)
• Canadian International Development
Agency (CIDA)
• US Environmental Protection Agency
(USEPA)
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AIACC Objectives
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Advance scientific understanding
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Build and enhance scientific & technical capacity
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Of climate change I, A & V in developing country regions.
In developing countries to investigate I, A & V and participate in
international scientific assessments.
Generate and communicate information
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Useful for adaptation planning and action and for preparation of
National Communications under UNFCCC.
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AIACC Activities
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Peer reviewed grants for regional studies
Project development & training workshops
Regional workshops
Thematic workshops
Ongoing technical support & mentoring
Facilitation of peer review publication
Synthesis
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AIACC Regional Studies in N &W Africa
Egypt, Morocco,
Tunisia
•Agriculture
•Water
•Historical impacts of variability
•Crop modeling future impacts
•Irrigation water S&D
•Adaptations
Sudan
•Human
settlements
•Agriculture
•Vulnerability to climatic hazards
•Food security
•Environmental mgt adaptations
Nigeria
•Agriculture
•Crop modeling future impacts
•Seasonal forecasts
Nigeria, Mali
•Rural
settlements
•Agriculture
•Vuln.of demog. groups to drought
•Impact thresholds, risk analysis
•Adaptations
West Africa
(0-30oN,
15oW-20oE)
•Climate
•Diag. eval. of GCM projections
•Statistical & dynamical
downscaling for W. Africa
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AIACC Regional Studies in Southern Africa
South Africa
•Biodiversity
•Predictive models of plant &
animal responses to climate
•Adaptation to conserve
biodiversity
Malawi,
Mozambique,
Zambia,
Zimbabwe,
Tanzania
•Agriculture
•Water
•Land-use
•Integrated assessment
(MIMOSA)
•Primary focus on land-use
Botswana
•Agriculture
•Water
•Land-use
•Present water, food conditions
•Int. Assess. of future impacts
•Adaptations
South Africa,
Gambia
•Water
•Agriculture
•Benefit-cost analysis of
adaptations
Sub-Saharan
Africa
•Climate
•Diag. eval. of GCM projections
•Stat. & dyn. downscaling for subSaharan Africa
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AIACC Regional Studies in Asia
Mongolia
•Agriculture
•Rangelands
•Water
•Trends in vulnerability to climate
•Modeling grassland, crop, water
impacts
•Adaptations
Thailand,
Cambodia,
Laos,
Vietnam
•Water
•Vulnerability to hydrologic changes
•Aquatic/riparian & extremes
ecosystems
•Adaptations
Sri Lanka
•Plantation
agriculture
•Model tea & coconut responses to
climate variation & change
•Social & economic impacts
•Adaptations
Philippines,
Indonesia
•Water
•Agriculture
•Ecosystems
•Land-use/cover changes, forest,
water, agriculture impacts
•Social & economic impacts
•Adaptations
China
•Water
•Agriculture
•Land-use
•IA to identify social vulnerabilities
•Multi-criteria evaluation of
adaptatons
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AIACC Regional Studies in Latin America
Central America
•Water
•Agriculture
•Coastal
•Vulnerabilities to extreme
events & climate change
•Adaptations
Argentina,
Uruguay
•Agriculture
•Impacts on mixed grain/grazed
agricultural systems
•Adaptations
Argentina,
Uruguay
•Human
settlements
•Coastal natural
resources
•Vulnerabilities to tide floods,
storm, sea level rise, climate
change
•Adaptations
Uruguay
•Estuarine
ecosystem
•Fisheries
•Water
•Vulnerabilities of estuary &
human uses
•Adaptations
Mexico,
Argentina
•Agriculture
•Water
•Rural
settlements
•Farm level analysis of risk mgt.
And adaptation
•Effects of existing/past policies
on vulnerabilities
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AIACC Regional Studies in Small Islands
Caribbean
•Human Health •Investigate/model health responses to
climate (dengue)
•Future health impacts of climate change
•Adaptations
Fiji, Cook
Islands
•Water
•Coastal
infrastructure
•Natural
resources
Seychelles •Tourism
Comoros
•Natural
resources
•IAM, extended to include human
dimensions
•Adaptations
•Direct impacts of climate change &
SLR on tourism
•Indirect impacts on tourism from effects
on natural resources
•Adaptations
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AIACC Regional Studies Highly
Heterogeneous
• Not a research program with specific objectives,
approaches, scenarios, models dictated from above
• Different objectives determine relative emphases
of I, A, & V in the regional studies
• Objectives drive choices of approaches, methods,
models, scenarios
• Choices are made by the regional study PIs and
their teams
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Commonalities among regional studies
• All studies contribute to broad objectives
of AIACC
– Advance scientific understanding of I,A, & V
– Build scientific/technical capacity
– Generate & communicate information for
adaptation
• Each study addresses adaptation
– Was a requirement in grant review & approval
• Most studies incorporate stakeholder
participation
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Vulnerability vs. impact assessment
• Priority given to adaptation in AIACC,
leading to emphasis on vulnerability in many
of the studies
• Vulnerability: capacity to be harmed by a
hazard (e.g. climate change)
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Two aspects of vulnerability
• Exposure to a hazard or set of hazards
• Capacity of exposed individual, community,
system to
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Anticipate
Cope with,
Resist and
Recover from
impacts of the hazard(s)
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Impact Assessment
• Tends to focus on exposure
– Careful attention to scenarios of climate
change that characterize the hazards to which
people/systems will be exposed.
• Capacities of people/systems not
emphasized
– Often simplistic, ad hoc treatment
– Impact studies beginning to use multiple
socioeconomic scenarios to address
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Vulnerability Assessment
• Focuses on capacities of people, communities,
systems that determine impacts of exposures
– identify factors, processes that enhance or degrade
capacities
– Shed light on effective adaptation
• Hazard exposure often characterized by
incremental scenarios
– Informed by GCM, RCM projections
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Common Ground for V & I Analyses
• VA needed to provide more sophisticated
understanding & representation of
– Capacities of people, communities, systems
– Adaptation processes and effectiveness
– Dimensions of the hazard that matter most
• Impact models can integrate info about
capacities with “predicted” exposures
– Quantitative estimates of impacts for different
scenarios of capacities and exposures
– Quantitative risk analysis
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AIACC Synthesis
• Regional studies are expected to be completed by
end of 2004.
• How can we synthesize work of 23 studies that
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Ask different questions
Use different conceptual frameworks
Use different scenarios for climate, socioeconomic etc
Use different methods and models?
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Mechanisms for synthesis
• Regional workshops
• Thematic synthesis workshops
• Public web-based information network
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AIACC Regional Workshops
• Two rounds of regional workshops planned
– Feb-Apr 2003
– Aug-Sept 2004
• Opportunity for study teams to
– Present & discuss preliminary results with other
researchers in their region
– Share expertise, collaborate to solve common
problems
– Lay groundwork for synthesis
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AIACC Regional Workshops
• Develop broad cross-cutting questions on issues
common to many individual studies
– Distribute before 1st round of workshops, refine via listserve discussion
– Ask teams to address the questions in their
presentations
– Discuss commonalities, differences
– Plan next steps
• Repeat process for 2nd round of workshops
– Same questions?
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Thematic Synthesis Workshops*
• Series of 3 or 4 small workshops in 2005
– Each to be focused on a cross-cutting question
or theme
– Price of admission: a paper on the theme
• Objectives of each workshop
– Present, discuss, revise individual papers
– Write a joint synthesis paper
– Publish individual & synthesis papers as package
*Seeking financial support for these.
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Web-based Information Network
• AIACC regional study database
– Ready access to information, data, results from each
regional study
– Electronic working paper series
• Guided Web discussions
– Develop, refine cross-cutting questions
– Discussion of cross-cutting questions
– Discussion of other issues (working papers, methods,
models, data, training opportunities etc)
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Illustrative cross-cutting questions
• Are there spatial, demographic or other patterns
to who is vulnerable?
• What are the critical determinants of
vulnerability to climate hazards now? Are they
the same determinants for vulnerability to climate
change in the future?
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Illustrative cross-cutting questions
• What trends are likely to diminish (enhance)
future vulnerability to climatic hazards and
climate change?
• What policies or adaptation strategies can lessen
long-term vulnerability to climate change and
near-term vulnerability to climatic hazards?
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