Transcript PPT 720 KB - Global Change System for Analysis, Research and

The AIACC Project
Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to
Climate Change
Neil Leary, AIACC Science Director
AIACC Regional Workshop
for Latin America & Caribbean
Buenos Aires, 24-27 August 2004
Background
• GEF enabling project
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– climate change focal area
Geographic scope: Global
Project period: 2001-2005
Implementing Agency: UNEP
Executing Agencies: START & TWAS
Collaboration between IPCC, UNEP,
START, and TWAS
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Funding
• GEF Grant
• Developing country
partner co-financing
• USAID
• CIDA
• USEPA
• Total project cost
$7.5 million
$1.8 million
$300 thousand
$100 thousand
$50 thousand
$9.75 million
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AIACC Objectives
• Build scientific and technical capacity to
support National Communications
• Advance scientific understanding of climate
change impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation
opportunities
• Link science and policy communities for
adaptation planning
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Means for achieving objectives
• Implement regional V&A assessments
– “Learning-By-Doing” capacity building
• Supplement by technical support,
mentoring, training, and networking
• Engage stakeholders
• Work with National Communications
• Synthesis
• Workshops, publications, science &
stakeholder meetings
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Topics of Regional Assessments
(Number of projects addressing each topic noted in parentheses)
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Agriculture/food security (14)
Water resources (13)
Land use (7)
Rural livelihoods (5)
Coastal zones (5)
Biodiversity (3)
Aquatic ecosystems, fisheries (3)
Human health (2)
Extreme events (2)
Tourism (1)
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AIACC Accomplishments (1)
• Contributing to goals of UNFCCC
– Established strong ties to 2nd National
Communications
– Contributed to NAPA guidelines & workshops
– Adding to UNFCCC V&A methods/tools
database
– Participated in UNFCCC expert meetings on
adaptation
– Contributed to UNDP’s Adaptation Policy
Framework
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AIACC Accomplishments (2)
• Advancing knowledge & methods
– 15 papers published in peer-reviewed journals
– 7 papers published in AIACC Working Papers
• 20 more in review
– Advanced methods for:
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climate scenario generation
vulnerability indicators
livelihood approaches
integrated assessment modeling
benefit/cost analysis of adaptation
– Contributed to UNFCCC’s database of V&A methods and
tools
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AIACC Accomplishments (3)
• Contributing to international science
– IPCC 4th Assessment Report
• Contributed to outline & plans for IPCC AR4
• 33(!) AIACC investigators chosen to be authors of
IPCC AR4
– Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
• 2 projects contributing to MEA reports
– Global Environmental Change & Food Security
(GECAFS)
– Presentations in international science meetings
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AIACC Accomplishments (4)
• Building capacity
– Capacity for scientific/technical V&A assessment
• >200 scientists and >60 students in 46 developing countries have
benefited from “learning-by-doing” and training activities
– Capacity to engage with stakeholders and formulate
adaptation strategies and policies
• Have established networks that link science & stakeholder
institutions from 62 countries
– Stakeholder knowledge & awareness
• Numerous local workshops with stakeholders
– South-south capacity transfers
• AIACC participants have conducted several successful south-south
capacity transfer activities
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Upcoming AIACC Activities
• 3 Regional Workshops in 2004
• Completion of regional assessments by end
2004/early 2005
• More publications
• Synthesis of AIACC regional studies in
2005
• Outreach to stakeholders, national
communications
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Future
• START, TWAS and UNEP want to build on
successes of AIACC
– Developing new project proposal for 2005-2009
– Seeking funds
• Keep proven elements
– Peer review, regional assessments, mentoring, training,
technical assistance for capacity building
• Some changes for greater effectiveness
– Greater stakeholder engagement, stronger focus on
informing decisions, more south-south technical
assistance, more training opportunities
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Thank you
www.aiaccproject.org
Preliminary Lessons (1)
• Stakeholder participation in assessment is critical
for generating and communicating knowledge that
gets used
– Targeted to decision making needs
– Integrate knowledge, experiences of practitioners
– Credibility with affected groups, decision makers
• Requires set of skills most researchers don’t have
• Relationships important
– Relationships being established between science and
stakeholder institutions one of the more important
legacies of AIACC project
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Preliminary lessons (2)
• Experience of coping with and managing
climate risks is rich source of information
from which to learn about
– System sensitivities, resilience and capacities
– Determinants of vulnerability
– Strategies to cope, adapt
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Preliminary Lessons (3)
• Important to look at multiple scales
– Sub-units within a region, community etc have
varying degrees and types of vulnerability,
capacities to respond
– Cross-scale interactions important
– Focusing on single scale may lead to
• misdiagnosed capacities, vulnerabilities,
thresholds
• prescription of ineffective adaptations
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Preliminary Lessons (4)
• Important to look at multiple futures
– Socioeconomic as well as climate futures
– Socioeconomic drivers probably more important
drivers of vulnerability than climate
• Multiple scenarios needed to investigate implications
of different possible futures for vulnerability and
adaptation
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Preliminary Lessons (5)
• Best method for constructing climate
change scenarios depends on assessment
objectives
– Regional climate modeling not always needed nor
best
– Fidelity to GCM derived climate scenarios not
critically important for investigation of
vulnerabilities
– Guided sensitivity analyses important first step
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Preliminary Lessons (6)
• Livelihoods is useful concept for vulnerability
assessment
– Changes in climate & other stresses restrict or expand
livelihood opportunities
– People adapt their livelihood strategies in response to
changing opportunities
– Consequences for their well-being will depend on how
effective these adaptations are
• Livelihoods integrate consequences of multiple
stresses on human well-being
• Vulnerabilities vary for different livelihood groups
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