Transcript UEA

ERMITAGE:
COUPLING MODELS
INTO CIAS:
WHY, WHAT, and HOW
Nov 17, 2011
University of East Anglia
Rachel Warren, Tyndall Centre,
Requirements for ERMITAGE
WP11
1. Create scenarios which simulate
climate mitigation and examine their
‘sustainability’ for......adequacy of food
and water supply, protection of
ecosystems and water resources
2. Create scenarios that simulate
‘sustainable’ policies for land use,
ecosystems, water supplies ....what is
the effect on climate?
3. Identify tradeoffs/synergies; create
scenarios that maximise sustainability
in all these respects.
So an integrated model is
required that ...
a. Links land, climate and hydrological
models
b. Combines models written at various
institutions in different languages
c. Stores model outcomes traceably
d. Facilitates uncertainty analysis
e. Allows study of feedbacks
f. Flexible to answer different questions
CIAS 2.0
Providing climate change and climate change impacts
information for adaptation preparedness and
mitigation decisions around the world
CIAS 2.0 Design Features
Flexibly
linked
modular
system
MULTI:
-institutional
-platform
-language
Feedbacks
included
Web portal
Uncertainty
Analysis:
Parameters
Modules
Involves the stakeholder
Community..
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
The earlier the peak in emissions, the
greater the avoided impacts
% of impacts avoided
% of impacts avoided
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
Cooling
requirements
Soybean
productivity
Decreased
crop
suitability
Coastal
mangrove
Coastal flood
risk
Fluvial flood
risk
Increased
water
scarcity
0
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate
Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
2016-5-L
2030-5-L
CIAS portal: Managing results
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
BASIC STRUCTURE OF CIAS
Drivers
Mitigation
Emissions
Climate
Adaptation
Impacts
Downscaled
climate
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
BASIC STRUCTURE OF CIAS
Drivers
Mitigation
Emissions
Climate
Adaptation
Impacts
Downscaled
climate
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Detail of CIAS (current): simple linear flows
SCM Simple
Climate Model
MAGICC6
(UEA, PIK)
Emission
scenario
database:
emissions
of
greenhouse
gases
Wallace Initiative:
Impacts on biodiversity
Impacts on crop suitability
(James Cook University, WWF US)
SCSG Spatial
climate scenario
generator
ClimGEN
(UEA)
Agricultural Model PEGASUS
Changes in crop yields
Farm-scale adaptation
(UEA, McGill)
Hydrological Models MAC, Fiesta
Changes in runoff
Water stress
(Nottingham, Kings)
SDSM Lite
Weaher Generator
(L’borough)
Degree Day Model
(Reading)
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
SPI Drought indicator
(UEA)
and receives additional support from the DTI
CIAS ERMITAGE COUPLING FLOW (NOW)
SCM Simple
Climate Model
MAGICC6
(UEA, PIK)
Emission
scenario
database:
emissions
of
greenhouse
gases
SCSG Spatial
climate scenario
generator
ClimGEN
(UEA)
LPJmL
Impacts on vegetation zones
Impacts on crop suitability
Impacts on water resources
(PIK)
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CIAS ERMITAGE COUPLING FLOW (WP5)
SCM Simple
Climate Model
MAGICC6
(UEA, PIK)
Emission
scenario
database:
emissions
of
greenhouse
gases
SCSG Spatial
climate scenario
generator
ClimGEN
(UEA)
LPJmL
Impacts on vegetation zones
Impacts on crop yields
Impacts on water resources
(PIK)
MagPIE
Lnad use change decisions
Crop productivity
Greenhouse gas emissions
(PIK)
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CIAS ERMITAGE COUPLING FLOW (WP5)
GENIE
Emulator
(OU, UEA)
Emission
scenario
database:
emissions
of
greenhouse
gases
SCSG Spatial
climate scenario
generator
(UEA)
LPJmL
Impacts on vegetation zones
Impacts on crop yields
Impacts on water resources
(PIK)
MagPIE
Lnad use change decisions
Crop productivity
Greenhouse gas emissions
(PIK)
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CIAS ERMITAGE COUPLING FLOW (WP11)
Burden
Sharing
Simulator
WP10
Emission
scenario
database:
emissions
of
greenhouse
gases
WP6
GENIE
Emulator
(OU, UEA)
WP9
SCSG Spatial
climate scenario
generator
(UEA)
REMIND-R
OR
TIAM
OR GEMINI-E3
LPJmL
Impacts on vegetation zones
Impacts on crop yields
Impacts on water resources
(PIK)
MagPIE
Lnad use change decisions
Crop productivity
Greenhouse gas emissions
(PIK)
WP7
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Positive features of CIAS ...
1.There’s a database
There’s a metadatabase
2. Searchable: S&Q interface
3.Web portal that allows
uncertainty analysis
4.Allows study of feedbacks
between models
5. Allows linking of models
different instiutions in different
languages.
6. Can link full code, emulator, or
executable
To work with CIAS...
A. We work together by passing
files manually between pairs of
models to understand the
coupling (as currently in WP5)
without feedbacks: consider
issues of time-stepping, spatial
scales
B. Pass files manually to do
feedback and understand
science/economics of this
NB New large data base, TDH, is
available to help us exchange
our data files
To work with CIAS...concurrently
C. Rupert checks bfg supports
language and if not adapt (WP2)
D. Sudipta needs to be informed
of:
(i) scientific coupling between
model pairs: test in SoftIAM
E. To put the couplings in the
portal Sudipta needs then:
(ii) the required couplings
(iii) output requirements
(iv) which input parameters are
suitable for uncertainty analysis
Possible CIAS sequence to WP11..
A. Scientific couplings in WP5
close to decided so...
B. Couple GENIEemulator into
CIAS
C. Couple LPJemulator into
CIAS
D. GEMINI-E3
E. MagPIE
F. REMIND-R, TIAM
Which couplings can be created?
A.
Magicc6-ClimGEN-LPJmL-MagPIE-Magicc6
(WP5)
B.
GENIEEm-LPJmL-MagPIE-GENIEEm
C.
GEMINIE3-GENIEEm (WP6)
D.
REMINDR-MagPIE-LPJmL or TIAMMagPIE-LPJmL (WP7)
E.
REMINDR-GENIEEm (WP8)
F.
REMINDR-Magicc6-ClimGEN-LPJmLMagPIE-REMINDR
etc.