Transcript adger_brooks - START - SysTem for Analysis Research and

Vulnerability Assessment and
Case Studies
Neil Adger and Nick Brooks
Tyndall Centre and CSERGE
School of Environmental Sciences, UEA
AIACC Training Workshop on Development and Application of
Integrated Scenarios in Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability Assessments, April 2002
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Purposes
• Review concepts of vulnerability and
adaptive capacity
• Review methods, data, and scenarios
(climate and social) required for vulnerability
assessment
• Case example of vulnerability and the social
science required
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Defining terms
Vulnerability is a function of:
Exposure to climatic hazard resulting from climate
variability and change
Sensitivity – degree to which a system is affected by
climate stimuli
Adaptive capacity – ability of a system to adjust and
take opportunities
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
INDICATORS
Measuring vulnerability
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Vulnerability of whom and to what?
• Vulnerability is context specific – we measure
the vulnerability
OF a particular system, region or group
TO a specific hazard, impact or outcome
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
We can measure the vulnerability of
• a population group to drought (hazard) or
famine (outcome)
• an agricultural system to drought (hazard)
• a coastal area to sea-level rise (hazard) or
flooding (impact)
• a country to global climate change
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Risk and vulnerability?
• risk = hazard x vulnerability
• This definition views vulnerability as socially
constructed, not dependent on the
geographical distribution of climatic or other
threats
• Here we are essentially talking about social
vulnerability to discrete phenomena.
• Vulnerability to climate change is a prior state
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Social vulnerability
• Depends on a system’s capacity to adapt to
change
• Is inversely related to adaptive capacity (but
may depend on factors such as sensitivity)
• Is a useful concept when assessing the
vulnerability of a clearly defined group or
system to a specific threat
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Hazard distribution
• The likelihood that a system will be damaged
by global climate change is highly dependent
on (changes in) the distribution of hazards, as
well as its vulnerability.
• Should we define vulnerability more widely to
incorporate the distributional effects of climate
change – overall as opposed to social
vulnerability?
• i.e. are we really interested in risk?
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Overall vulnerability
Wider definition – overall vulnerability is a
function of
1. Exposure/hazard (climate threats)
2. Sensitivity (result of existing adaptation)
3. Adaptive capacity (ability to adapt in future)
Develop indicators for these 3 categories
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Risk = hazard * (social) vulnerability
equivalent to
Overall vulnerability = f (exposure, sensitivity, AC)
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Indicators of exposure to hazard
•
•
Measure probability of occurrence of a
potentially damaging (climatic) event
We might use
– Historical climate-related disaster frequency
(assuming “more of the same”)
– Model projections of either event frequency or
suitable proxies for probability of occurrence
(e.g. SSTs)
– Weighting by event severity in addition to
above
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Historical climate-related disasters, world
(from CRED EM-DAT data)
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Sensitivity indicators
•
Measure degree to which a system’s physical
attributes expose it to physical impacts of hazard
–
E.g. geographic location of settlements (flood plain,
hillslope, quality of housing)
–
E.g. health of a population at onset of drought
•
Sensitivity related to coping range, robustness,
resilience
•
Socially, geographically and environmentally
constructed
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Adaptive capacity (AC) indicators
Capture the following components of AC:
1. resources available for adaptation
2. ability of people to deploy those resources
3. willingness to undertake adaptive measures
–
AC socially constructed but may be environmentally or
geographically constrained; depends heavily on socioeconomic, political and institutional factors.
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Resources determining adaptive capacity
• Financial and natural capital
• Availability of labour, skills, knowledge (human
capital)
• Access to technology
• Access to markets (e.g. income diversification)
• Distribution of resources – poverty, inequality,
equity issues
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Available resources – possible proxies
• Financial capital – income per capita, inequality indices,
GDP
• Natural capital – groundwater, cultivable land, energy
sources, sustainability
• Human capital – literacy, level of education, preservation
of traditional knowledge (e.g. land management),
number of graduates in science, particularly in
climate/environment field
• Technology – investment in research & development,
renewable and clean energy sources,
• Markets – accessibility, openness of foreign markets,
trade balances
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Deployment of resources
• Does infrastructure allow people to
undertake adaptive measures?
• Does policy inhibit or encourage
adaptation, or encourage maladaptive
practices?
• Social capital – how do people use formal
and informal networks to their advantage?
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Helping or hindering adaptation
• Building codes & tax (dis)incentives – proxy: percent of
(new) settlements in vulnerable areas (maladaptation)
• Economic policy – does it encourage migration to
vulnerable areas? Proxy: numbers migrating
• Self-determination – do external factors such as debt
and structural adjustment programmes undermine or
constrain adaptive measures? Proxies related to debt
impacts
• Overall policy environment – proxies: percentage of
policies that explicitly incorporate measures to adapt to
climate change; number and degree of support for
agencies involved in vulnerability assessment or
adaptation programmes.
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Willingness to adapt
Do social or cultural factors encourage or
inhibit adaptation (e.g. resistance to
change)?
– Proxy: percentage of population adopting
available no- or low-cost adaptive measures
subsidised by government
– People may be sceptical about government
sponsored adaptation schemes if they don’t
trust government, or assume hidden costs
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Data sources
• Hazards: disaster data from CRED: http://www.cred.be/emdat/
(frequency, numbers killed and otherwise effected, etc)
• Exposure: e.g. Environmental Vulnerability Index (SOPAC):
http://www.sopac.org.fj/Projects/Evi/
• Adaptive capacity: Human Development Report & Indicators:
http://www.undp.org/hdro/
• World Development Indicators from World Bank on CD-ROM
($275 / $550) http://www.worldbank.org/data/
• Above data at national level – higher resolution data from national
agencies or through collection of new data.
• Vulnerability mapping projects
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Web links 1.
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http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/tar/wg2/ - Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability (IPCC).
http://www.fivims.net/ - Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping
Systems.
http://www.grid.unep.ch/ - UNEP Mapping Natural Hazards Occurrences and Vulnerable
Populations.
http://www.sopac.org.fj/Projects/Evi/index.html - SOPAC Environmental Vulnerability
Index.
http://www.sei.se/risk/workshop4.html - Stockholm Environment Institute International
Workshop on Vulnerability and Global Environmental Change.
http://www.fao.org/docrep/W5849T/w5849t09.htm - Food and Agriculture Organisation Establishing a food insecurity and vulnerability information and mapping system
(Ezzeddine Boutrif).
http://www.oas.org/en/cdmp/bulletin/hazmap.htm - Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project,
Hazard Mapping and Vulnerability Assessment Workshop.
http://www.clarklabs.org/10applic/risk/start.htm - Applications of Geographic Information
Systems (GIS) Technology in Environmental Risk Assessment and Management. See
especially Chapters 2, 3 and 4.
http://www.sopac.org.fj/nuke/article.php?sid=20 - EU/SOPAC project – Reducing
Vulnerability of Pacific States.
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Web links 2.
•
http://ns2.resalliance.org/pub/www/Journal/vol5/iss1/art19/ - ecological indicators
•
http://www.uni-bonn.de/ihdp/IHDPUpdate0102/viewpoint.html - vulnerability,
Kasperson viewpoint
•
http://www.uni-bonn.de/ihdp/IHDPUpdate0102/article7.html - vulnerability and
African groundwater resources article
•
http://www.uni-bonn.de/ihdp/index.html - International Human Dimensions
Programme on Global Environmental Change
•
http://www.uni-bonn.de/ihdp/vulnerability.htm - IHDP workshop report (Assessing
Vulnerability to Global Environmental Risks)
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Case study of vulnerability
• Present day vulnerability to climate variability in
coastal Vietnam
• What are the determinants of social vulnerability?
• Study scope – what is vulnerability and how
measured?
• Methods – in assessing vulnerability what do social
scientists do?
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Defining vulnerability to hazards
Vulnerability is the set of characteristics of a group or individual in terms
of their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover from the
impact of a natural hazard.It involves a combination of factors that
determine the degree to which someone’s life and livelihood is put at
risk by a discrete and identifiable event in nature or society.
(Blaikie et al. 1994 p. 9)
Vulnerability is essentially about the human ecology of endangerment ...
and is embedded in the social geography of settlements and land uses,
and the space or distribution of influence in communities and political
organisation.
(Hewitt, 1997, p 143)
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Vulnerability indicators
Individual
adaptive capacity
Poverty
Resource
Dependency
Collective
adaptive capacity
Distribution
of entitlements
Institutional
appropriateness
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Characteristics of vulnerability and
their measurement
Vulnerability
indicator
Proxy for:
Vulnerability
mechanism
Measured by
Narrowing of coping
strategies; undiversified
livelihoods; lack of
empowerment.
Material or
experiential
poverty
measures.
Poverty
Marginalisation
Inequality
Degree of collective
responsibility, informal and
formal insurance and
underlying social cohesion
Direct: concentration of
available resources in
fewer hands.
Indirect: inequality to
poverty links.
Quantitative
measures of
distribution of
assets and
entitlements.
Institutional
adaptation
Mechanisms for collective
security; political
institutions constrain or
enable adaptation.
Responsiveness,
evolution and adaptability
of all institutional
structures.
Study of
decisionmaking, social
learning and
inertia.
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Why does underlying vulnerability
change? – the Vietnam context
• Changing social and political
processes
• Rapid economic growth
• Rapid demographic change
• Future change in climate risks
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Climate variability observed – Vietnam’s landfall
typhoons 1900-1995
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Location of Xuan Thuy case study area,
northern Vietnam
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Farming system – Xuan Thuy
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Changing poverty and inequality as indicators
of vulnerability
0.6
Inland Xuan Thuy
0.5
1995
1989
1995
Gini coefficient
1989
Xuan Thuy
0.4
0.3
1995
1989
0.2
Coastal Xuan Thuy
0.1
0
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Income per capita (000 VND)
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
How are inequality and vulnerability related?
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Institutional adaptation observed
• Coastal defence in the reform
• Re-emergence of civil society for collective
security
• Spontaneous adaptation through
mangrove rehabilitation
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Coastal defences, Giao Thuy District
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Collective action for water management
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Labour movements for coastal defence
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Vulnerability trends
INCREASING
vulnerability
DECREASING
vulnerability
1 Increasingly skewed
incomes
2 Increasing reliance on
aquaculture
3 Reduction in collective
action by Communes
1 Decreasing poverty
2 Civil society collective
action
3 Spontaneous adaptation
and mangrove replanting
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Vulnerability analysis - lessons
• Vulnerability to climate variability is a dynamic
social process
• Current vulnerability is a good proxy for nearfuture vulnerability
• policies implications – ways to ameliorate
vulnerability
– equitable land and resource allocation
– effective evolution of collective action
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Links between scenarios and
vulnerability assessment
• Social vulnerability – different parameters
and scenarios for different spatial scales
• Vuln. as a fn (Exp., Sens., Adapt. Cap.)
• Vulnerability scenarios more appropriate
for near future / shorter time-scales
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI