Transcript xianfu_lu_climpacts - global change SysTem for Analysis

An introduction to
THE CLIMPACTS SYSTEM: a country-scale IAM
By
Dr Xianfu Lu, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
At
AIACC Intensive Training Workshop on
Development and Application of Scenarios in Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Assessments
15~26 April, Tyndall Centre, UEA, UK
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Next 30 minutes
1. A short description of CLIMPACTS
2. Climate components within CLIMPACTS
3. A quick tour around the climate components of CLIMPACTS
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
1. A short description of CLIMPACTS
•
Developed by the International Global Change Institute, University of Waikato,
Hamilton, New Zealand (http://www.waikato.ac.nz/igci/)
•
To enhance the understanding of the sensitivity of New Zealand’s natural and
managed environments to climate variability and change.
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A “vertically integrated” linked model system
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Input to the System: emissions of GHGs; output: indicators of impacts
•
Key model and data components
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
1. A short description of CLIMPACTS
•
Key model and data components:
o
MAGICC – to project global-mean temperature and sea-level changes
o
A climate change scenario generator for New Zealand – to link output from MAGICC with climate change patterns for
New Zealand and historical climate data
o
Historical climate and land use capacity data for New Zealand
o
Impact models for arable cropping, fruit crops, pasture production and soil organic matter, and a simple water
balance model
o
Data brower, weather generators and an extreme event analysis tool – to facilitate more detailed analyses of site data
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios
User-defined model parameters
1.
GLOBAL
Energy Balance Climate Model
(MAGICC)
GCM Results
2.
NEW ZEALAND
(National and Regional)
Climate Scenario Generator
Averages
Variability
Weather Generators
Climate data
Extremes
Extreme Analysis Tools
3.
IMPACT MODELS
Arable Crops  Grasslands  Fruit Crops  Soils
 Water Balance
Land use
classification
Environmental Effects
Schematic representation of the CLIMPACTS system (IGCI, NEW ZEALAND, 2002)
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
2. Climate components within CLIMPACTS
•
Historical climate data
o
Long-term, monthly mean values for T, P and solar radiation derived from 1951~80 record, used
to develop spatially-interpolated climatologies
o
Daily time-series for T and P, used by impact models, extreme event analysis tools and WG
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MAGICC
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GCM patterns
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ENSO patterns
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
3. A quick tour around Climate components within CLIMPACTS
Three types of climate scenarios can be generated within CLIMPACTS
•
Synthetic scenarios
•
Analogue scenarios
•
GCM-based scenarios
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI