Transcript PowerPoint Presentation - Global Change Curricula and

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Global Climate Change:
How We Got Here, and What Do We Do Now?
Eugene S. Takle
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected]
Osborn Club
Iowa State University
14 January 2008
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Outline
 Scientific
basis for climate change
 The “disbelief” phenomenon
 Climate change and the scientific process
 What do we do now? ISU’s role
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Pattern
repeats about
every 100,000
years
Natural cycles
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
IPCC Third Assessment Report
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
950 ppm
(2100)
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
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STATE
UNIVERSITY
Agung, 1963
El Chichon (1982)
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
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Scientific American, March 2004
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATEHansen,
UNIVERSITY
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Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
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Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Not Natural
The Great Warming Swindle, Martin Dunkin BBC, 2005
The Great Warming
Swindle, Martin Dunkin
BBC, 2005
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Skeptics’ Arguments

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It's the sun
Climate's changed before
There is no consensus
Surface temp is unreliable
Models are unreliable
Al Gore got it wrong
Ice age predicted in the 70's
CO2 lags temperature
Mars is warming
Global warming is good
9.0%
7.8%
6.4%
5.8%
4.5%
4.4%
4.0%
3.7%
3.3%
3.3%
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Exposing Anthropogenic Climate Change
to Standard Scientific Evaluation

Methodological
– Inductive (specific to general)
– Deductive (general to specific)
– Falsifiable (testable; does not rely on articles of faith)

Evidentiary : Strong consistency of evidence
– Instrumental records (temperature, satellite obs)
– proxy records (tree rings, lake sediments, bore holes, etc.)

Performance
– Prediction
– Provide useful advice

Inference to best explanation
– All available evidence points towards role of
human effects.

Community standards
Naomi Oreskes, 2007
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is
committed to a
warming over the
next 50 years
regardless of
political decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Mitigation
Possible
Adaptation
Necessary
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Observed summer (June-July-August) daily mean
temperature changes (K) between 1976-2000 (Adapted
from Folland et al. [2001]).
“Warming Hole”
DTmax (JJA)
˚C
Pan, Z., R. W. Arritt, E. S. Takle, W. J. Gutowski, Jr., C. J. Anderson, and M. Segal,
2004: Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a “warming
hole”. Geophys. Res. Lett.31, L17109, doi:10.1029/2004GL020528.
Precipitation
minus
Evaporation for
Western US
(25N-40N, 95W125 W)
R. Seager, et al.,
2007. Model Projections of
an Imminent Transition to a
More Arid Climate in
Southwestern North
America. Science, Vol.
316. no. 5828,
pp. 1181 - 1184
Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US
(25N-40N, 95W-125 W)
R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in
Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184
Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US
(25N-40N, 95W-125 W)
Colorado River Compact established, 1922
R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in
Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC)
Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological
Organization (UN) and the United Nations
Environmental Programme
 IPCC purpose is to evaluate the state of
climate science as a basis for
informed policy action, primarily
on the basis of peer-reviewed
and published scientific literature

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
NAS Assessment of IPCC
Conclusions
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“Greenhouse gases are accumulating in the Earth’s
atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing
surface air temperatures to rise and sub-surface
ocean temperatures to rise”
“The IPCC’s conclusion that most of the observed
warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been
due to the increase in greenhouse gas
concentrations accurately reflects the
current
thinking of the scientific community
on this
issue”
National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Science of
Climate Change, 2001: Climate change science: An analysis of
some key questions. National Academy Press.
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
IPCC AR4 (2007) Process
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IPCC does not conduct its own research. It simply
organizes teams of scientists to evaluate the current
state of scientific knowledge
People from over 130 countries contributed to the
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report over the previous 6
years.
These people included more than
2500
scientific expert reviewers,
more than 850
contributing authors,
and more than 450 lead
authors
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report (2007)
“The understanding of
anthropogenic warming and cooling
influences on climate has improved
since the Third Assessment Report
(TAR), leading to very high confidence
that the globally averaged net effect of
human activities since 1750 has been
one of warming, with a radiative forcing
of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W m-2.”
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
IPCC AR4 Conclusions

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Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
Most of (>50% of) the observed increase in globally
averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very
likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic (human) greenhouse gas
concentrations.
Hotter temperatures and rises in sea level "would
continue for centuries" even if greenhouse gas levels are
stabilized, although the likely
amount of temperature
and sea level rise
varies greatly depending on the
fossil
intensity of human activity during the
next century.
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
IPCC AR4 Conclusions
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The probability that this is caused by natural climatic
processes alone is less than 5%.
World temperatures could rise by between 1.1 and
6.4 °C (2.0 and 11.5 °F) during the 21st century and
that:
Sea levels will probably rise by 18 to 59 cm (7.08 to
23.22 in).
There is a confidence level >90% that there will be
more frequent warm spells, heat waves and heavy
rainfall.
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
IPCC AR4 Conclusions
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There is a confidence level >66% that there will be an increase
in droughts, tropical cyclones and extreme high tides.
Both past and future anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions
will continue to contribute to warming and sea level rise for more
than a millennium.
Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane,
and nitrous oxide have increased
markedly as a result
of human activities
since 1750 and now far exceed
preindustrial values over the past 650,000
years
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What To Do Now
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
 ISU Climate Science Initiative
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to
NOAA)

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What To Do Now
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
 ISU Climate Science Initiative
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA)

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Terrain and land-sea boundaries in the
Hadley Centre global climate model
Regional climate model
information from global model results
information from global model results
information from global model results
information from global model results
North America Regional Climate Change
Assessment Program: Participants
Lead agency: NSF, with contributions from NOAA and DOE
R. Arritt,
D. Flory, W. Gutowski, E. Takle, Iowa State University, USA
R. Jones, E. Buonomo, W. Moufouma-Okia, Hadley Centre, UK
D. Caya, S. Biner, OURANOS, Canada
D. Bader, P. Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA
F. Giorgi, ICTP, Italy
I. Held, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA
R. Leung, Y. Qian, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA
L. Mearns, D. Middleton, D. Nychka, S. McInnes, NCAR, USA
A. Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA
S. Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA
L. Sloan, M. Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA
NARCCAP Plan
A2 Emissions Scenario
GFDL
CCSM
1960-1990 current
HADAM3
link to EU
programs
Provide boundary conditions
MM5
RegCM3
CRCM
HADRM3
Iowa State/
PNNL
UC Santa Cruz
ICTP
Quebec,
Ouranos
Hadley Centre
Reanalyzed climate , 1979-2000
CGCM3
2040-2070 future
RSM
Scripps
WRF
NCAR/
PNNL
What To Do Now
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
 ISU Climate Science Initiative
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA)

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
ISU Climate Science Initiative
Launched by Vice President Brighton
 Colleges of Agric, Engr, LAS have taken
leadership, but broad campus research
participation will be emphasized
 Build on research strengths in regional
climate modeling, agriculture,
water, landscapes, engineering

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
How Will New Trends and Variability
of Regional Climate Change Affect
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Crop & horticulture
production
Soil erosion
Conservation practices
Water supplies
Streamflow
Water quality
Beef and pork daily gains
Livestock breeding success
Milk and egg production
Crop and livestock pests and
pathogens
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Agricultural tile drainage
systems
Natural ecosystem species
distributions
Human health
Building designs
Recreation opportunities
River navigation
Roads and bridges
Who will provide authoritative information?
How will it be delivered?
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What To Do Now
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
 ISU Climate Science Initiative
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA)

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Proposed new
Midwest Consortium for
Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA)

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Create seasonal climate forecasts for the
Midwest
Use ensembles of advanced regional
climate models interactive web-based
decision-making tools,
Translate and enhance the latest NOAA
climate forecast products to maximize
economic gains
Use high-volume customized delivery and
feedback through the county level extension
service network
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Summary

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Climate change of the past 35 years is not consistent
with natural variations over the last 400,000 years
Evidence clearly shows that radiative forcing due to
anthropogenic greenhouse gases has contributed over
half of the warming of the last 35 years
Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed, will have
little effect on global warming until the
latter half of the 21st century
Adaptation strategies should be
developed for the next 50 years
Iowa State has the capacity to build on its
strengths
and provide authoritative
information on
climate change and
climate variability for
decision-makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY