Transcript CombinedFacultyMeeting - Department of Geological

ISU Climate Science Initiative
Eugene S. Takle
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected]
Combined Faculty Meeting
Agronomy and GEAT
24 January 2008
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Outline
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Status of climate science
– Climate change and climate variability
– Understanding and prediction regional-scale climate
change and variability and their impacts
– Time scales for future climate scenarios
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What do we do now? ISU’s role
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NARCCAP
MiCCA
MRED
Climate Science Initiative
Brief history
 Current status
 Developing linkages, faculty engagement
 Future visions
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CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
“Business as Usual”
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
950 ppm
?
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed
to a warming over the
next 50 years
regardless of political
decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed
to a warming over the
next 50 years
regardless of political
decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed
to a warming over the
next 50 years
regardless of political
decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Mitigation
Possible
Adaptation
Necessary
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Observed summer (June-July-August) daily maximum
temperature changes (K) between 1976-2000 (Adapted
from Folland et al. [2001]).
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
What To Do Now?
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to
NOAA)
 Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS
Seasonal Forecasts (MRED)
(proposed to NOAA)
 ISU Climate Science Initiative

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What To Do Now?
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
(WJG lead)
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to
NOAA)
 Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS
Seasonal Forecasts (MRED)
(proposed to NOAA)
 ISU Climate Science Initiative
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CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
North America Regional Climate Change
Assessment Program
Global models do not have sufficient spatial
resolution to provide climate information at scales
needed for decision-making on adapting to
climate change
Use results of global climate models of future
scenario climates as boundary conditions for
regional climate models
Develop scenarios of contemporary and future
climate at spatial scales of 50 km for use in
assessing impacts of climate change
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Terrain and land-sea boundaries in the
Hadley Centre global climate model
Example Regional Model Domain
North America Regional Climate Change
Assessment Program: Participants
Lead agency: NSF, with contributions from NOAA and DOE
R. Arritt,
D. Flory, W. Gutowski, E. Takle, Iowa State University, USA
R. Jones, E. Buonomo, W. Moufouma-Okia, Hadley Centre, UK
D. Caya, S. Biner, OURANOS, Canada
D. Bader, P. Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA
F. Giorgi, ICTP, Italy
I. Held, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA
R. Leung, Y. Qian, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA
L. Mearns, D. Middleton, D. Nychka, S. McInnes, NCAR, USA
A. Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA
S. Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA
L. Sloan, M. Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA
What To Do Now?
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to
NOAA) (EST lead)
 Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS
Seasonal Forecasts (MRED)
(proposed to NOAA)
 ISU Climate Science Initiative
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CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
How Will New Trends and Variability
of Regional Climate Change Affect
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Crop & horticulture
production
Soil erosion
Conservation practices
Water supplies
Streamflow
Water quality
Beef and pork daily gains
Livestock breeding success
Milk and egg production
Crop and livestock pests and
pathogens
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Agricultural tile drainage
systems
Natural ecosystem species
distributions
Human health
Building designs
Recreation opportunities
River navigation
Roads and bridges
Who will provide authoritative information?
How will it be delivered?
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Proposed new
Midwest Consortium for
Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
Midwest Consortium for
Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
MiCCA’s mission is to translate and enhance the
latest NOAA climate forecast products to maximize
economic gains for agricultural producers and their
agribusiness service providers in the U.S. Midwest
through use of advanced regional models, interactive
web-based decision-making tools, and high-volume
customized delivery and feedback through the
existing integrated regional, state, and county level
extension service network throughout the 9-state
region (MN, IA, MO, WI, IL, MI, IN, OH, KY).
Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA)
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Create seasonal climate forecasts for the
Midwest
Use ensembles of advanced regional
climate models interactive web-based
decision-making tools,
Translate and enhance the latest NOAA
climate forecast products to maximize
economic gains
Use high-volume customized delivery and
feedback through the county level extension
service network
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What To Do Now?
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to
NOAA)
 Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS
Seasonal Forecasts (MRED)
(proposed to NOAA) (RWA lead)
 ISU Climate Science Initiative

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Seasonal Forecasting
(MRED project)
 Weather
forecasting is short-term
(few days to 2 weeks)
 Climate projection is for decades
 Seasonal forecasting has had less
attention, despite practical needs:
– agriculture, construction
and repair, transportation,
etc.
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Seasonal Forecasting
(MRED project)
MRED project is patterned after NARCCAP:
– uses output from the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global
model as input to fine-scale regional
models
– many of the same participants as
NARCCAP
 ISU has done some exploratory work
using a similar approach.
 Project has been proposed to NOAA.
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CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What To Do Now?
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to
NOAA)
 Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS
Seasonal Forecasts (MRED)
(proposed to NOAA)
 ISU Climate Science Initiative (EST
lead)
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CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
ISU Climate Science Initiative
Launched by Vice President Brighton
 Colleges of Agric, Engr, LAS have taken
leadership, but broad campus research
participation will be emphasized
 Build on research strengths in regional
climate modeling, agriculture,
water, landscapes, engineering
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CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Climate Science Initiative
Vision: That Iowa State will be the leading US
university in forecasting climate at regional scales
with lead times of two weeks to multi-decadal for
use in decision-making. A major component of the
nation’s food supply and renewable fuel supply is
vulnerable to both natural cycles of climate and
changes due to increases in atmospheric
greenhouse gases. Failure to anticipate major
floods and droughts of regional scale will create
profound shocks to the nation’s economy. Recent
advances in forecasting global climate out to nine
years by use global climate models initialized with
new measurements of “ocean heat content” as
reported in Science raise prospects for increased
predictability on seasonal and longer time scales
Climate Science Initiative:
Progress So Far
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Held informational meeting Nov 26
– 75 attended (additional 20 sent regrets)
– 59 faculty, 16 staff/admin
– 22 departments, 5 colleges
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Reported back to VPRED advisory team
– VP Brighton, Deans Wintersteen, Whiteford,
Kushner
– Approval to move forward
– Hired web master, invite speakers
Forming Climate Science Initiative Council
 Forging linkages with other programs
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Build Links to other
Institutes and Centers
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Bioeconomy Institute
Plant Sciences Institute
CyberInnovation Institute
Center for Carbon-Capturing Crops
Center for Computational Intelligence, Learning, and
Discovery
Research Computing Council
Ames Laboratory
CARD
ISU Extension Service
Great Lakes Consortium for Petascale
Computing
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Examples of Studying Impacts
of Climate Change
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Impact of land-use and climate change on future
landscape change (C. Kling, CART)
Impact of climate change on stream flow in UMRB
(C. Kling, P. Gassman, M. Jha, CARD)
Impact of climate change on tile drainage flow (A.
Kaleita, M. Helmers, A&BE)
Pavement performance under climate change (C.
Williams, CCEE)
Changes in wind speed and wind power under
climate change (S. Pryor, Indiana U)
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Future Role of Cyberinfrastructure in
Universities
“…leadership in cyberinfrastructure may well
become the major determinant in measuring
pre-eminence in higher education among
nations.”
Arden L. Bement, Jr.
Director, National Science Foundation
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Virtual Environmental Observatories
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Assemble comprehensive historical
databases on environmental
measurements
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Meteorological
Streamflow
Ground water
Soil moisture
Soil carbon
Crop growth
Water quality
Air quality
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Virtual Environmental Observatories:
Assemble comprehensive historical databases on
environmental measurements
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Meteorology, streamflow, ground water, soil
moisture, soil carbon, crop growth, water quality,
air quality
Landscape information (elevations, soil types,
land-use, land cover, animal/bird populations,
drainage, tillage, cropping patterns, chemical
application, conservation practices, ownership,
etc.)
Human demographics (population, built
environment, pollutant sources, etc.)
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Virtual Environmental Observatories:
Assemble dynamical models for imposing physical
constraints and consistency
Physical laws
 Balances
 Consistency
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CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Virtual Environmental Observatories:
Forecast future conditions with applications to
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Extreme weather events
Flood/drought impacts
Roadway safety
Emergency management
Advance preparedness
Toxic releases
Crop development
Agriculture decision-making
– purchase, tillage, planting, marketing
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Recreational opportunities
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Where Do We Go From Here?
 Continue
to solicit faculty participation
 Form Council
 Build off-campus partnerships
 Seek funding opportunities
 Establish grants facilitation
 Prepare to compete for a
presidential
initiative
 Prepare to compete for a
federally funded center
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY