Transcript PowerPoint Presentation - Global Change Curricula and

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Global Climate Change:
How Did We Get Here? What Do We Do Now?
Eugene S. Takle
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected]
“Focus the Nation” Forum
Iowa State University
31 January 2008
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Pattern
repeats about
every 100,000
years
Natural cycles
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
IPCC Third Assessment Report
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
950 ppm
(2100)
January 2008
385 ppm
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
Scientific American, March 2004
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATEHansen,
UNIVERSITY
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Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Not Natural
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is
committed to a
warming over the
next 50 years
regardless of
political decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Mitigation
Possible
Adaptation
Necessary
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
What Do We Do Now?

Serve as a model for energy efficiency and
minimal impact on global climate change
– President Geoffroy’s Advisory Committee

Conduct research on both mitigation of and
adaptation to climate change
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What Do We Do Now?
President's Advisory Committee on Energy Conservation
and Global Climate Change
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Conduct a full-scale university energy audit that
includes a review of ISU's electrical, heating,
cooling and transportation systems. The audit will
provide a baseline for measuring progress.
Develop plans for reducing energy use in each of
the audited areas.
Develop energy conservation and climate change
guidelines for all new construction and major
renovation projects.
Ensure that students are well-informed about
alternate energy sources, energy conservation and
global climate change issues.
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What Do We Do Now?
President's Advisory Committee on Energy Conservation
and Global Climate Change
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Chris Ahoy
Floyd Barwig
Joseph Fuller
Devin Hartman
Tahira Hira
Elizabeth Hoffman
George Kraus
Mark Kushner
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Warren Madden
Jeri Neal
Brian Phillips
Colleen Rogers
Pat Schnable
Kate Schwennsen
Eugene Takle
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What Do We Do Now?
ISU’s Research Role
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to
NOAA)
 Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS
Seasonal Forecasts (MRED)
(proposed to NOAA)
 ISU Climate Science Initiative

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What Do We Do Now?
ISU’s Research Role
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to
NOAA)
 Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS
Seasonal Forecasts (MRED)
(proposed to NOAA)
 ISU Climate Science Initiative

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Terrain and land-sea boundaries in the
Hadley Centre global climate model
Regional climate model
information from global model results
information from global model results
information from global model results
information from global model results
What Do We Do Now?
ISU’s Research Role
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to
NOAA)
 Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS
Seasonal Forecasts (MRED)
(proposed to NOAA)
 ISU Climate Science Initiative

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
How Will New Trends and Variability
of Regional Climate Change Affect…
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Crop & horticulture
production
Soil erosion
Conservation practices
Water supplies
Streamflow
Water quality
Beef and pork daily gains
Livestock breeding success
Milk and egg production
Crop and livestock pests and
pathogens
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Agricultural tile drainage
systems
Natural ecosystem species
distributions
Human health
Building designs
Recreation opportunities
River navigation
Roads and bridges
Who will provide authoritative information?
How will it be delivered?
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Proposed new
Midwest Consortium for
Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA)
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Create seasonal climate forecasts for the
Midwest
Use ensembles of advanced regional
climate models interactive web-based
decision-making tools,
Translate and enhance the latest NOAA
climate forecast products to maximize
economic gains
Use high-volume customized delivery and
feedback through the county level extension
service network
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What Do We Do Now?
ISU’s Research Role
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to
NOAA)
 Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS
Seasonal Forecasts (MRED)
(proposed to NOAA)
 ISU Climate Science Initiative

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What Do We Do Now?
ISU’s Research Role
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to
NOAA)
 Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS
Seasonal Forecasts (MRED)
(proposed to NOAA)
 ISU Climate Science Initiative
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CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
ISU Climate Science Initiative
Launched by Vice President Brighton
 Colleges of Agric, Engr, LAS have taken
leadership, but broad campus research
participation will be emphasized
 Build on research strengths in regional
climate modeling, agriculture,
water, landscapes, engineering
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CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Summary
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Climate change of the past 35 years is not consistent
with natural variations over the last 400,000 years
Humans have contributed over half of the warming of the
last 35 years
Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed, will have
little effect on global warming until the
latter half of the 21st century
Adaptation strategies should be
developed for the next 50 years
President Geoffroy has a goal to make
ISU a model of energy conservation
Iowa State has the capacity to build on
its strengths and provide authoritative
climate information for decision-makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY