Transcript NREM120April212008 - Department of Geological

Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
Global Climate Change:
How We Got Here, and What Do We Do Now?
Eugene S. Takle
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Director, Climate Science Initiative
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected]
Natural Resource Ecology and Management 120
Iowa State University
21 April 2008
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Outline
Scientific basis for climate change
 Why we are confident that the that humans are
responsible for a large measure of the current
warming
 What do we do now?

– What should you do?
– What should ISU do?
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CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Pattern
repeats about
every 100,000
years
Natural cycles
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
IPCC Third Assessment Report
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2007
380 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2050
550 ppm
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
950 ppm
“Business as Usual”
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
950 ppm
?
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
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Agung, 1963
El Chichon (1982)
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Scientific American, March 2004
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATEHansen,
UNIVERSITY
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Not Natural
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
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Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is
committed to a
warming over the
next 50 years
regardless of
political decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
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Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Mitigation
Possible
Adaptation
Necessary
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
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IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Precipitation
minus
Evaporation for
Western US
(25N-40N, 95W125 W)
R. Seager, et al.,
2007. Model Projections of
an Imminent Transition to a
More Arid Climate in
Southwestern North
America. Science, Vol.
316. no. 5828,
pp. 1181 - 1184
Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US
(25N-40N, 95W-125 W)
R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in
Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184
Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by
Global Climate Models
Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt,
M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771
Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by
Global Climate Models
Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt,
M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771
Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by
Global Climate Models
Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt,
M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771
Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by
Global Climate Models
2005
Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt,
M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771
Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by
Global Climate Models
2005
2007
Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt,
M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771
Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by
Global Climate Models
2005
2007
Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt,
M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771
Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by
Global Climate Models
2005
2007
Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt,
M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771
QuickTime™ and a
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Sunset over the Arctic. (Credit: Jeremy Harbeck)
Projected Changes for the Climate of
Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment)
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Longer frost-free period (high)
Higher average winter temperatures (high)
Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium)
Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)
More (~10%) precipitation (medium)
More variability of summer precipitation (high)
– More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)
– Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
– Longer periods without rain (medium)
Higher absolute humidity (high)
Stronger storm systems (medium)
Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models
inconclusive CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What To Do Now
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What To Do Now

Mitigation
– Become active politically


National level - examine candidate platforms
Demand that state and local organizations examine carbon
emissions
– Examine personal choices



Home energy use
Auto type and use
Purchase of “stuff”
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What To Do Now

Mitigation
– Become active politically


National level - examine candidate platforms
Demand that state and local organizations examine carbon
emissions
– Examine personal choices




Home energy use
Auto type and use
Purchase of “stuff”
Adaptation
– Stay informed of the best science on climate
change for the Midwest
– Encourage public and private investment in
sustainable and resilient practices and
infrastructure
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What To Do Now

Mitigation
– Become active politically


National level - examine candidate platforms
Demand that state and local organizations examine carbon
emissions
– Examine personal choices




Home energy use
Auto type and use
Purchase of “stuff”
Adaptation
– Stay informed of the best science on climate
change for the Midwest
– Encourage public and private investment in
sustainable and resilient practices and
infrastructure

Consider preparing for a career relating
to problems of climate change
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What To Do Now
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
 ISU Climate Science Initiative
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to
NOAA)

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What To Do Now
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
 ISU Climate Science Initiative
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA)

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North America Regional Climate Change
Assessment Program: Participants
Lead agency: NSF, with contributions from NOAA and DOE
R. Arritt,
D. Flory, W. Gutowski, E. Takle, Iowa State University, USA
R. Jones, E. Buonomo, W. Moufouma-Okia, Hadley Centre, UK
D. Caya, S. Biner, OURANOS, Canada
D. Bader, P. Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA
F. Giorgi, ICTP, Italy
I. Held, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA
R. Leung, Y. Qian, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA
L. Mearns, D. Middleton, D. Nychka, S. McInnes, NCAR, USA
A. Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA
S. Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA
L. Sloan, M. Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA
NARCCAP Plan
A2 Emissions Scenario
GFDL
CCSM
1960-1990 current
HADAM3
link to EU
programs
Provide boundary conditions
MM5
RegCM3
CRCM
HADRM3
Iowa State/
PNNL
UC Santa Cruz
ICTP
Quebec,
Ouranos
Hadley Centre
Reanalyzed climate , 1979-2000
CGCM3
2040-2070 future
RSM
Scripps
WRF
NCAR/
PNNL
What To Do Now
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
 ISU Climate Science Initiative
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA)

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ISU Climate Science Initiative
Launched by Vice President Brighton
 Colleges of Agric, Engr, LAS have taken
leadership, but broad campus research
participation will be emphasized
 Build on research strengths in regional
climate modeling, agriculture,
water, landscapes, engineering

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How Will New Trends and Variability
of Regional Climate Change Affect

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Crop & horticulture
production
Soil erosion
Conservation practices
Water supplies
Streamflow
Water quality
Beef and pork daily gains
Livestock breeding success
Milk and egg production
Crop and livestock pests and
pathogens

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Agricultural tile drainage
systems
Natural ecosystem species
distributions
Human health
Building designs
Recreation opportunities
River navigation
Roads and bridges
Who will provide authoritative information?
How will it be delivered?
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What To Do Now
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
 ISU Climate Science Initiative
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA)

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Proposed new
Midwest Consortium for
Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
Summary
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Climate change of the past 35 years is not consistent
with natural variations over the last 400,000 years
Evidence clearly shows that radiative forcing due to
anthropogenic greenhouse gases has contributed over
half of the warming of the last 35 years
Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed, will have
little effect on global warming until the
latter half of the 21st century
Adaptation strategies should be
developed for the next 50 years
Iowa State has the capacity to build on its
strengths
and provide authoritative
information on
climate change and
climate variability for
decision-makers
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