Transcript GoldenKKiwanis - Department of Geological & Atmospheric

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Global Climate Change:
How We Got Here, and What Do We Do Now?
Eugene S. Takle
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Interim Faculty Director
University Honors Program
Director
Climate Science Initiative
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected]
Golden K Kiwanis Club
Ames, IA
17 April 2008
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Outline
Scientific basis for climate change
 Climate change and the scientific process
 Moving beyond the science to take action
 What do we do now?

– Mitigation
– Adaptation

Summary
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Pattern
repeats about
every 100,000
years
Natural cycles
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
IPCC Third Assessment Report
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
950 ppm
(2100)
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
Agung, 1963
El Chichon (1982)
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
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Scientific American, March 2004
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATEHansen,
UNIVERSITY
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Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Not Natural
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed
to a warming over the
next 50 years
regardless of political
decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed
to a warming over the
next 50 years
regardless of political
decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed
to a warming over the
next 50 years
regardless of political
decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Mitigation
Possible
Adaptation
Necessary
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report INITITATIVE,
Summary for
Policy
Makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE
IOWA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Projected Changes for the Climate of
Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment)
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Longer frost-free period (high)
Higher average winter temperatures (high)
Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium)
Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)
More (~10%) precipitation (medium)
More variability of summer precipitation (high)
– More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)
– Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
– Longer periods without rain (medium)
Higher absolute humidity (high)
Stronger storm systems (medium)
Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models
inconclusive CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What To Do Now
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What To Do Now

Mitigation
– Become active politically
National level - examine candidate platforms
 Demand that state and local organizations examine
carbon emissions

– Examine personal choices
Home energy use
 Auto type and use
 Purchase of “stuff”

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What To Do Now

Mitigation
– Become active politically
National level - examine candidate platforms
 Demand that state and local organizations examine
carbon emissions

– Examine personal choices
Home energy use
 Auto type and use
 Purchase of “stuff”


Adaptation
– Stay informed of the best science
on climate change for the Midwest
– Encourage public and private
investment in sustainable and
resilient practices and infrastructure
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What To Do Now:
What are your public universities doing?
North American Regional Climate Change
Assessment Program
 ISU Climate Science Initiative/Institute
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA)

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What To Do Now:
What are your public universities doing?
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
 ISU Climate Science Initiative
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA)
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CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
North America Regional Climate Change
Assessment Program: Participants
Lead agency: NSF, with contributions from NOAA and DOE
R. Arritt,
D. Flory, W. Gutowski, E. Takle, Iowa State University, USA
R. Jones, E. Buonomo, W. Moufouma-Okia, Hadley Centre, UK
D. Caya, S. Biner, OURANOS, Canada
D. Bader, P. Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA
F. Giorgi, ICTP, Italy
I. Held, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA
R. Leung, Y. Qian, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA
L. Mearns, D. Middleton, D. Nychka, S. McInnes, NCAR, USA
A. Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA
S. Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA
L. Sloan, M. Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA
What To Do Now:
What are your public universities doing?
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
 ISU Climate Science Initiative
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to
NOAA)
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CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
ISU Climate Science Initiative
Launched by Vice President Brighton
 Colleges of Agric, Engr, LAS have taken
leadership, but broad campus research
participation will be emphasized
 Build on research strengths in regional
climate modeling, agriculture,
water, landscapes, engineering
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CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
How Will New Trends and Variability
of Regional Climate Change Affect
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Crop & horticulture
production
Soil erosion
Conservation practices
Water supplies
Streamflow
Water quality
Beef and pork daily gains
Livestock breeding success
Milk and egg production
Crop and livestock pests and
pathogens
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Agricultural tile drainage
systems
Natural ecosystem species
distributions
Human health
Building designs
Recreation opportunities
River navigation
Roads and bridges
Who will provide authoritative information?
How will it be delivered?
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
What To Do Now:
What are your public universities doing?
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
 ISU Climate Science Initiative
 Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA)

CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Midwest Consortium for
Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
Midwest Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MiCCA)
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Create seasonal climate forecasts for the
Midwest
Use ensembles of advanced regional
climate models interactive web-based
decision-making tools,
Translate and enhance the latest NOAA
climate forecast products to maximize
economic gains
Use high-volume customized delivery and
feedback through the county level extension
service network
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Summary
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Climate change of the past 35 years is not consistent
with natural variations over the last 400,000 years
Evidence clearly shows that radiative forcing due to
anthropogenic greenhouse gases has contributed over
half of the warming of the last 35 years
Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed, will have
little effect on global warming until the
latter half of the 21st century
Adaptation strategies should be
developed for the next 50 years
Iowa State University will build on its
strengths and provide authoritative
information
on climate change and
climate variability
for decision-makers
CLIMATE SCIENCE INITITATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY