Transcript WCRP to IGFA - Earth Observations

World Climate Research Programme
Data support to IPCC Assessments
GEOSS support for IPCC Assessments
Workshop 1-4 February 2011
Valery Detemmerman
WCRP
Outline
• Climate Projections
– Global
– Regional
• Observational data sets
• Reanalyses and reprocessing
• Challenges
WCRP SPONSORS: WMO, IOC of UNESCO, ICSU
Joint Scientific Committee
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Joint Planning Staff for WCRP
PROJECTS
MODELLING
OBS&Analysis
● CliC
● CLIVAR
● GEWEX
● SPARC
● WGCM
● WGNE
(w/WWRP)
● WOAP
(w/GCOS)
CROSS CUTS
● Anthropogenic Climate Change
● Regional Climate Downscaling
● Seasonal Climate Prediction
● Decadal Variability, Predictability
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● Sea-level Variability and Change
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● Climate Extremes
● Atmospheric chemistry,Dynamics
● Monsoon and Climate
Climate Projections Interest in
WCRP PCMDI
CMIP3 results
continues
unabated!
Daily Download Rate
1 TB
• More than 550 peerreviewed publications.
• ~1 Pbyte of data
downloaded .
• More than 3,000
registered users.
2004
2010
Climate Projections
Progress CMIP3 to CMIP5:
• More experiments to quantify model sensitivity and feedbacks.
• Earth System Models - interactive carbon cycle, atmospheric
chemistry, ozone chemistry, land-surface schemes (with IGBP
AIMES).
• Increased Resolution - including NWP models, eddy permitting
ocean models, stratosphere-resolving atmospheric models
• Decadal prediction experiments to test a variety of initialization
techniques
Climate Projections
CMIP5 - Unprecedented International Coordination
CMIP5 participating groups (20+ groups;
~40 models).
2.3Pbytes of model output expected 100 times greater than CMIP3.
Model data will be accessed by the Earth
System Grid - output will be served by
federated centers around the world and
will appear to be a single PCMDI archive.
Regional Climate Downscaling
Coordinated Regional Downscaling
Experiment (CORDEX)
High-quality, region specific, climate
projections for most regions in the
world.
First priority is to develop a
comprehensive and high resolutions
climate change data set for Africa.
•CORDEX archive at Danish Meteorological
Institute
CORDEX domains
Arctic
NARCCAP
CLARIS
Antarctic
ENSEMBLES
RCMIP
Education and
Capacity Development
Climate Observations and Regional Modelling in Support of
Climate Risk Managements and Sustainable Development of the
countries of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
Three workshops
•demonstrate the use and value of regional
models,
• provide advice on model limitations
•improve capabilities across the GHA for using
data records and model projections for
adaptation planning in particular for the
agriculture/food security and water resources
sectors.
WCRP GEWEX Climate Data Records
• climate data records of global water and energy variables such
as clouds, radiation, aerosols, precipitation etc.,
complete with metadata and error analysis.
• blend of satellite and in-situ observations covering in most cases
more than 25 years.
• periodic comparison and assessment against other products in
an open and transparent fashion and are available to everyone
without restrictions.
Pentad
GEWEX Available Global Datasets
Daily
3 – 6 hrs
TIME
Parameter
1979
1985
1990
1995
2000
Clouds
Water Vapor
Precipitation
TOA Radiation
50 km
250 km
100 km
100 km
SRF Radiation
100 km
50 km
Evaporation
Atmospheric
Circulation
50 km
2005
2010
Arctic Sea-Ice Variability and Change
Sea-Level Variability and Change
Focus 1 :
Improve understanding of the risk of
higher mean sea-level rise in the 21st
century, and Antarctica and Greenland
contributions.
Focus 2 :
Regional sea-level rise
and coastal impacts.
Extreme Events and Climate Change
Cat 4+5 frequency:
81% increase, or
10% per decade
Estimated net impact
of these changes on
damage potential:
+28%
Bars show changes for the18
CMIP3 model ensemble (27
seasons); dots show range of
change across 4 individual
CMIP models (13 seasons).
Bender et al., Science, 2010
Droughts
Climate Model Evaluation Project (DRICOMP)
SSTA patterns
Courtesy of Kirsten Findell (GFDL-NOAA-USA)
Implications for future
global droughts
Atmospheric Reanalyses
• 4 major reanalyses groups: JMA, NOAA, NASA,
ECMWF
• Many reanalyses on going - ASR | ERA-40 | ERAInterim | JRA-25 | NASA MERRA | NCEP CFSR |
NCEP/DOE II | NCEP/NCAR I | NCEP NARR |
NOAA-CIRES 20CR
• WCRP Observations and Assimilation Panel has special WG
(with GCOS) to help coordinate these efforts
• The goal of reanalyses.org is to facilitate comparison between
reanalysis and observational datasets
Atmospheric reanalysis: The user base
• Many users:
– > 10000 registered users via
ECMWF public data services
– ≳5M fields retrieved daily by
ECMWF and Member-State users
– National mirror sites for ERA in
many countries
• And many citations:
– Paper on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is
most cited paper in geosciences
– Paper on ERA-40 is most cited
recently in the geosciences
– Many references in IPCC Fourth
Assessment report
Science applications that rely on reanalysis data
• “Observations” for verification and diagnosis
– Forecast model development, calibration of seasonal forecasting systems, climate model development; use of
data assimilation increments for identifying model errors
• Input data for model applications
– for smaller-scales (global→regional; regional→local), ocean circulation, chemical transport, nuclear
dispersion, crop yield, health warnings, …
• Study of short-term atmospheric processes and influences
– process of drying of air entering stratosphere, bird migration, …
• Providing climatologies
– ocean waves, resources for wind and solar power generation, …
• Assessment of the observing system
– providing feedback on observational quality, bias corrections and a basis for homogenization studies;
contributing to data reprocessing activities
• Study of longer-term climate variability and trends
– used with caution in conjunction with observational studies
– downstream climate services?
Reanalysis data produced at ECMWF
ERA-15:
ERA-40:
ERA-Interim:
1979 – 1993
1957 – 2001
1989 onwards
ORA-S3:
MACC:
1959 onwards
2003 – 2010
ERA-CLIM:
European Reanalysis of Global
Climate Observations
An EU project to help prepare
the next ECMWF reanalysis
ERA-20C:
1900 onwards
ERA-CLIM data recovery and digitization
focus on pre-1957 meteorological data in sensitive regions
Ocean reanalysis
Moorings
ARGO floats
XBT (eXpandable
BathyThermograph)
Satellite
SST
Sea Level
Summary
WCRP data for IPCC
• Model output
• Observations
• Analyses: Comparison of
observations with models
Challenges
• Stewardship and continuity of existing
observing networks
• New observing systems (e.g., deep
ocean, upper atmosphere, cryosphere)
• Open and timely access to observed
data