Transcript Report on WCRP developments/response post Review

World Climate Research Programme
Joint Scientific Committee – 31
Antalya, Turkey
World Climate Research Programme
Moving towards Future Horizons
WCRP Developments/Response Post Review
Antonio J. Busalacchi
Chairman, Joint Scientific Committee
Mission & Objectives
World Climate Research Programme supports climaterelated decision making and planning adaptation to
climate change by developing science required to
improve
(1) climate predictions and
(2) our understanding of human influence on climate
“for use in an increasing range of practical applications of
direct relevance, benefit and value to society” (WCRP
Strategic Framework 2005-2015).
WCRP Implementation Plan 2010-2015
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The Interdisciplinary Nature of Climate Science
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Atmosphere, Oceans and Climate
Cryosphere and Climate
Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics
Water, Energy and Climate
Meeting the Information Needs of Society
Activities in Support of Key Deliverables
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Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction
Sea-Level Variability and Change
Climate Extremes
Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics
Centennial Climate Change Projections
Seasonal Climate Prediction
Monsoons and Climate
Activities in Support of WCRP Integrating Themes
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Climate-Quality Data Sets and Analyses
A New Generation of Climate System Models
Next Generation of Climate Experts: Building Capacity Regionally and Globally
Applications
• WCRP scientists active in planning/organizing
• WCRP will:
– Promote climate research in the context of climate
information for decision-making
 WMP Modeling Summit & Model Development
 Climate Information System Framework
– Play a major role in the scientific/technical
segment (white papers, theme leaders, etc.)
– Engage in the policy segment which targets heads
of states, ministers, senior government officials
Future Horizons
Major Anticipated Outcomes of JSC 31
WCRP Visioning: Long-term functions and
structure of the WCRP
Role of climate research, in particular,
WCRP, within the Global Framework for
Climate Services
Future Horizons
Future Horizons
Major Anticipated Outcomes of JSC 31
WCRP Visioning: Long-term functions and
structure of the WCRP
Role of climate research, in particular,
WCRP, within the Global Framework for
Climate Services
Major Events of the Past Year for which WCRP
has Played a Major Role
•WCC-3
•OceanObs ’09
•ICSU Review and Visioning
World Climate Conference-3
Better Climate Information for a Better Future
A Global Framework for Climate Services
Geneva, Switzerland
31 August–4 September 2009
WCC-3 Conference Statement
• Great recognition of scientific progress made through
WCRP and its associated activities
• Call for major strengthening of observations and research
Support the development
of the Global Framework
for Climate Services
WCC3 – Expert Segment
Called for major strengthening of the essential elements of a global
framework for climate services:
 The Global Climate Observing System and all its components and
associated activities; and provision of free and unrestricted exchange
and access to climate data;
 The World Climate Research Programme, underpinned by
adequate computing resources and increased interaction with other
global climate relevant research initiatives.
 Climate services information systems taking advantage of
enhanced existing national and international climate service
arrangements in the delivery of products, including sector-oriented
information to support adaptation activities;
 Climate user interface mechanisms focussed on building linkages
and integrating information, at all levels, between the providers and
users of climate services; and
 Efficient and enduring capacity building through education, training,
and strengthened outreach and communication.
WCC3 – High-Level Segment
Decided to establish a Global Framework for
Climate Services
 WMO will take the lead in putting together a task-force
of high-level independent advisors
 The task-force will make recommendations on the
elements of the Framework and the steps for its
development and implementation
 WMO congress in 2011 will review the
recommendations with a view to adopt the proposed
plans
Conference Objective
“Ocean Information for society:
sustaining the benefits, realizing the potential”
Strengthen and enhance the international
framework under GCOS, GOOS, WCRP, IGBP
and supporting regional and national
frameworks for sustained world ocean observing
and information systems supporting the needs of
society about ocean weather, climate,
ecosystems, carbon and chemistry
Conference Statement
VISION:
Provision of routine and sustained global information on
the marine environment sufficient to meet society’s
needs for describing, understanding and
forecasting marine variability (including physical,
biogeochemical, ecosystems and living marine
resources), weather, seasonal to decadal climate
variability, climate change, sustainable management of
living marine resources, and assessment of longer term
trends
http://www.oceanobs09.net
ICSU-WMO-IOCIGFA
Review of WCRP
Published in February 2009
Electronic version
available at:
http://www.icsu.org/
ICSU-WMO-IOC-IGFA
Review of WCRP
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Society needs the research for mitigation strategies/climate adaptation
After 30 years of high achievement, the breadth of WCRP activities has
outgrown the ability of society to support all the necessary research,
infrastructure, and coordination. Yet the need for WCRP’s work is more
important than ever
WCRP has earned renown for excellence over its 30-year lifetime. This
excellence provides a strong foundation for the future
At the same time, there must be a strategy for prioritizing WCRP science
and related activities and for conversion of WCRP science into future societal
benefit. The WCRP Strategic Framework document provides a framework but
lacks future priorities and an implementation plan. The absence of a detailed
implementation plan will make the required societal and policy relevance
more difficult to achieve in the future
Yet it is the societal and policy relevance that will sustain WCRP in the long
run and make the necessary resources easier to acquire
ICSU-WMO-IOC-IGFA
Review of WCRP
Summary recommendations:
1. Focus and identify future research priorities
2. Build scientific and resource capacity
3. Enhance collaboration (national, regional, international i.e.
developing countries’ scientists/institutions); use national
networks as ‘source for nominations of under-represented
groups’
4. Enhance visibility and better uptake of WCRP outreach –
not only at international but also regional, and national levels
5. Develop framework for future joint research (i.e. with GEC
programmes and ESSP)
ESSP Partnership
• Build on the existing partnerships:
– SOLAS;
– WGCM + AIMES;
– SPARC + IGAC: Atmospheric Chemistry &
Climate;
– CLIVAR + PAGES;
– CLIVAR + IMBER;
– GEWEX + iLEAPS…
Extend and strengthen them.
ESSP Partners
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The Earth System Science Partnership is a partnership of four international
global environmental change (GEC) research programme for the integrated
study of the Earth System, the changes that are occurring to the system and
the implications of these changes for global and regional sustainability.
ICSU-WMO-IOC-IGFA
Review of WCRP
 WCRP should develop an implementation plan for its activities, taking into
account new initiatives that have emerged since COPES was completed in
2005 as well as the observations of accelerated climate change which
place new demands on the science to be relevant
 WCRP should shift its implementation paradigm from one that builds from
the parts offered its core projects and other activities to one that has clear
and focused high-level objectives and clearly articulated deliverables
 These should be delivered primarily through WCRP-wide cross-cutting
activities with the core projects focused on those components of the crosscutting activities that are unique to their mandate
 In particular, the modelling and the observing system research should
be predominantly WCRP-wide activities
 The implementation should also encourage development of process
studies within the broader strategic framework rather than within individual
programme components
Three Step Process
Goal: to engage the scientific community to explore options
and to propose implementation steps for a holistic strategy
on the Earth system research. This strategy will both
encourage scientific innovation and address policy needs
Criteria for selection
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Scientific importance. Does the question address a cutting-edge research
challenge that could plausibly be addressed in the next decade that, if answered,
can significantly advance our understanding of Global Change?
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Policy relevance. Will the answer to the question help to achieve pressing
global needs, including promoting sustainability, reducing poverty, and assisting
the most vulnerable in coping with Global Change?
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Broad support. Does the question have broad support from the research and
funding community (even those not directly involved in answering the question)?
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Global coordination. Is a coordinated international or global approach involving
multiple researchers and disciplines needed to answer the question?
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Leverage. Does the answer to the question involve a scientific or technical
breakthrough, or would it create a transferable model, that would help to address
multiple problems or challenges related to Global Change Science?
DRAFT: Grand Challenges in Global Sustainability
A Systems Approach to Research Priorities for the
Decade
• Challenge #1: Substantially improve the utility and reduce the
uncertainty associated with regional forecasts of future
environmental conditions and their consequences for people.
• Challenge #2: Develop the observation systems needed to manage
global environmental change.
• Challenge #3: Determine how to anticipate, avoid and cope with
dangerous global environmental change.
• Challenge #4: Develop institutional and governance arrangements
that can ensure global sustainability.
• Challenge #5: Develop and evaluate innovative responses to
achieve global sustainability.
Earth System Visioning
Common Threads
• Broader base of expertise:
– interdisciplinarity → transdisciplinarity
– broader expertise in the social sciences
(beyond geography and economics->
sociology/ psychology, ethics)
– need for expertise in engineering/technology
– need for communication experts
• Enthusiasm of the community
Deliberation
• World Climate Conference-3, OceanObs ‘09,
ICSU Review, acknowledge WCRP past contributions
and identify future challenges and opportunities.
• Need for more flexibility/agility to respond to
expanding users needs, this include information:
• At regional scale
• For key sectors of global economy
• For adaptation, mitigation and risk
management
Key Accomplishments
in 2009
• Leadership and participation in WCC-3 and OceanObs ’09
• CMIP5
• TFRCD/CORDEX
WCRP Task Force on Regional Climate
Downscaling (TFRCD)
A Task Force on Regional Climate Downscaling (TFRCD) has been formed
under the auspices of WCRP with the mandate of designing a
program to:
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Build a benchmark framework to evaluate and possibly improve
available RCD techniques.
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Organize an international coordinated framework to produce an
improved generation of multi-model RCD-based high resolution
climate projections over regions worldwide for input to
impact/adaptation work and to the IPCC AR5 process.
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Promote greater interactions between climate modelers and endusers to better support impact/adaptation activities within the AR5
framework, and promote greater involvement of scientists from
developing countries in this process.
Key Accomplishments
in 2009
• Leadership and participation in WCC-3 and OceanObs ’09
• CMIP5
• TFRCD/CORDEX
• Modelling Coordination
WCRP Community-Wide Consultation on Model
Evaluation and Improvement
•A "bottom-up survey" about the key deficiencies of regional and global
NWP and climate models.
•This survey includes problems identified in operational NWP and seasonal
prediction centers as well as deficiencies that climate modelers and analysts
of CMIP3 simulations have identified for the current generation of models.
•The priorities identified by the survey will be the basis of model
development/improvements across the entire WCRP Projects and activities,
and also through its partnership with WWRP, IGBP and ESSP.
•WCRP is also currently examining the scope and structure of its modeling
activities and the outcome of this survey will also inform these
decisions/discussions.
WCRP Community-Wide Consultation on Model
Evaluation and Improvement
•A "bottom-up survey" about the key deficiencies of regional and global
NWP and climate models.
•This survey includes problems identified in operational NWP and seasonal
prediction centers as well as deficiencies that climate modelers and analysts
of CMIP3 simulations have identified for the current generation of models.
•The priorities identified by the survey will be the basis of model
development/improvements across the entire WCRP Projects and activities,
and also through its partnership with WWRP, IGBP and ESSP.
•WCRP is also currently examining the scope and structure of its modeling
activities and the outcome of this survey will also inform these
decisions/discussions.
WCRP Community-Wide Consultation on
Model Evaluation and Improvement
To:
- NWP and Seasonal Forecasting Centers
- World Climate Modeling Centers
- WGCM and associated MIPs (PMIP, CFMIP, C4MIP, etc)
- CLIVAR modeling groups (WGOMD, WGSIP)
- CLIVAR regional and monsoon panels
- US CLIVAR panels and working groups, CPTs
- WCRP Task force on Regional Climate Downscaling
- WCRP Projects (CLiC, SPARC, GEWEX)
- THORPEX, WWRP
- IGBP/AIMES
WCRP Modelling Theme
Air-quality
modelling
Numerical
methods
Ecosystem
modelling
NWP
1) Confronting
models with obs –
‘inward looking’ –
making the most
of what is
produced by core
projects.
Connects to
observations and
diagnostics.
GMPP
CCMVal
WCRP
CFMIP
WCRP
SNOMIP
PMIP
WGOMD
4) Promoting
improvement in
models; new
strategies;
renewed effort
and investment.
WGCM
Integrated
Biogeochemistry assessment
modelling
WGSIP
WCRP
TFRCD
WGNE
ACC
IPCC
Impact assessments
Services
Stakeholders
3) Applications and
intercomparisons –
applying models for
scientific and
societal benefit,
quantifying errors,
multi-model
ensembles, analysis
and dissemination
of results
2) Collaborating
with others –
‘outward looking’
– insuring that
WCRP modelling
is informed by
and complements
activities in
related fields.
Key Accomplishments
in 2009
• Leadership and participation in WCC-3 and OceanObs ’09
• CMIP5
• TFRCD/CORDEX
• Modelling Coordination
• CliC Sea Ice White Paper
• WGSIP/CHFP
• WCRP Open Science Conference Planning
2011 WCRP Open Science Conference
Climate Research in Service to Society
Conference Objective
•The aim of WCRP is to facilitate analysis and prediction of Earth’s climate
system variability and change for use in an increasing range of practical
applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society.
• The Open Science Conference will thus assemble the scientific community
working to advance our ability to understand and predict variability and
change of the Earth’s climate system on all time and space scales.
•Through this synthesis of research findings and knowledge, WCRP will
better inform assessments and prediction science practitioners on the state
of climate science research, describe the challenges of the future, and chart
pathways forward for WCRP.
2011 WCRP Open Science Conference
Climate Research in Service to Society
•Monday: The Climate System Components and Their
Interactions
•Tuesday: Observation and Analysis of the Climate System
•Wednesday: Improving Predictive Capabilities
•Thursday: Environmental Assessments
•Friday (early a.m.): Regional Climate
Friday (late a.m.): Challenges and the Future
Future Horizons
Looking to the future:
•The vision post 2013 was strongly influenced by the
evolution of climate science, research, and education
in the 1980’s, 1990’s, 2000+ across the atmosphere,
ocean, land, and cryopshere.
•Looking to the future, a major envisioned challenge
and opportunity at the intersection of WCRP+IGBP is
the basic and applied research in support of the:
Prediction of the Earth System.
WCRP/WWRP/IGBP
BAMS COLLECTION
• An Earth-System Prediction Initiative for the 21st
Century
• Addressing the Complexity of the Earth System
• Towards a New Generation of World Climate
Research and Computing Facilities
• Collaboration of the Weather and Climate
Communities to Advance Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal
Prediction
• The Multi-scale Organization of Tropical Convection
and its Interaction with the Global Circulation
The Chair’s Perspective on
WCRP Challenges
• Decadal Variability and Prediction
– Coupled Data Assimilation
• Projections of Future Precipitation
• Development of pdfs for future extreme
events
• Public perception and trust of climate science
– Quantifying uncertainty
• Sea ice and ice sheet modeling
– Seasonal forecasting of the coupled Arctic
• Global Framework for Climate Services
• Aerosols
• -Geoengineering
WCRP JSC 31 Antalya, Turkey
February 15-19, 2010
Monday February 15, 2010
•Report on WCRP developments/response post Review
•Welcome Remarks – Mr Mehmet Caglar, WMO Permanent Representative of Turkey
•Report on JPS developments, program, personnel, budget
•WCRP Visioning: Long-term functions/structure
Introduction of Thematic White Papers
Processes
Observations
Modeling
Applications
Capacity Building
•WCRP Open Science Conference Planning
•Partners (what do you require of the WCRP to support your programme goals, areas
of partnership wrt to climate science and services)
IPCC
IGBP
ESSP
GCOS
CAS
GCOS
ESA
GEO
WCRP JSC 31 Antalya, Turkey
February 15-19, 2010
Tuesday February 16, 2010
•Joint Opening Session with CCl
•Reports on high-level activities of past year
–WCC-3/WMO
–Ocean Obs/IOC
–ICSU Visioning
•Climate Services, Intergovernmental and National presentations
–Present plans and what is needed from research community
–WCC-3 Follow-on Task Group
–Germany, US, France, UK, Japan, Canada, etc
•3 Parallel breakouts
(function and form of WCRP support to climate services)
•Plenary report out
WCRP JSC 31 Antalya, Turkey
February 15-19, 2010
Wednesday February 17, 2010
• Project reports (highest level accomplishments of past year,
issues/challenges for JSC)
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CLIVAR
CliC
GEWEX
SPARC
Panel/WG/TF reports
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ACC
WOAP
WGCM
WGNE
TFRCD
WCRP JSC 31 Antalya, Turkey
February 15-19, 2010
Thursday February 18, 2010 Joint Day with 15th session of WMO Commission on Climatology (CCl)
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Climate System Monitoring and Research Needs
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Improving our understanding of the hydrologic cycle and its changes: Observational and modeling
needs
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Climate Change Detection and Indices: Overview and Future Perspectives
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Research Needs for Seasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction
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Research Needs for Decadal to Centennial Climate Prediction: From observations to modeling
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Discussion: Research needs in observations and modeling at seasonal to centennial timescales
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Providing downscaled regional climate change information for impact and adaptation: The CORDEX
framework
Practical Applications of Seasonal to Interannual Climate Predictions on Regional and National Scales
Bridging the gap between climate change information, stakeholders and policy making
Enhancing Linkages between Climate Service Providers and Users to Facilitate Climate Adaptation and
Climate Risk Management
Enhancing climate change research and application in developing countries
Discussion: Research needs for enhancing the use of climate information in impact,
adaptation and mitigation work
WCRP JSC 31 Antalya, Turkey
February 15-19, 2010
Friday February 19, 2010
• Crosscuts
ACC
Monsoon
S-I
Decadal
• Parallel break outs on WCRP future structure
(WCRP coordination for modelling, obs, process studies)
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Plenary Report out
19:00 *NEW* Gala Dinner open to all the Participants of JSC and CCL