Transcript ppt - WMO

World Climate Research Programme:
Issues of interest for WWRP
Vladimir Ryabinin
(on behalf of the WCRP Joint Planning Staff)
The major objectives of the WCRP are to:
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Determine the predictability of climate, and
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Determine the effect of human activities on climate
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Facilitate analysis and prediction of Earth system
variability and change for use in an increasing range of
practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value
to society (COPES Framework, 2005-2015).
WCRP Open Science Conference
24-28 October 2011
Denver, Colorado, USA
http://conference2011.wcrp-climate.org
Climate Research in Service to Society
Registered Participants:
• 1907 from 86 countries
• 541 Early Career Scientists & Students
• 332 from Developing Countries
http://conference2011.wcrp-climate.org/positionpapers.html
WCRP and Global Framework for Climate Services
RTT
Opportunity and occasion for developing elements of
a seamless prediction technology:
• Increase of climate information availability
• Work on unknowns in 4 priority areas of GFCS
(food & agriculture, H20, health, disaster reduction)
• Applied research
“Future Earth”
A 10-year initiative of international scientific collaboration on Earth
system research led by ICSU and Belmont Forum
Funding for 2 initial projects: coastal zone and fresh water availability
“Rio + 20”, June 2012
JSC
JPS
WDAC
WMAC
WGNE
WGCM
WGRC
WGSIP
(CAS/WCRP)
Grand Challenges
WCRP Grand Challenges
• Provision of skillful future climate information on regional
scales (includes decadal and polar predictability)
• Regional Sea-Level Rise
• Cryosphere response to climate change
(including ice sheets, water resources, permafrost and carbon)
• Improved understanding of the interactions of clouds, aerosols,
precipitation, and radiation and their contributions to climate
sensitivity
• Past and future changes in water availability
(with connections to water security and hydrological cycle)
• Science underpinning the prediction and attribution of extreme
events
Major Climate Prediction and
Projection Experiments
Coupled Model Intercomparison
Experiment 5 – CMIP5
IPCC AR5
Climate-system Historical
Forecast Project - CHFP
sea ice,
stratosphere
Coordinated Regional Downscaling
Experiment – CORDEX
IPCC AR5
Arctic
Chemistry-Climate Model
Validation
Africa
Antarctic
WCRP Modelling Advisory Council
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focal point for climate modelling in WCRP
advise JSC and WCRP Projects on modelling
modelling aspects of the Grand Challenges
coordinate modelling activities (finding gaps and reducing duplication)
assess strategic priority aims for WCRP modelling and current capabilities
recommend to JSC and WCRP Projects activities to meet the priority aims
communication and coordination across WCRP modelling groups
clearing house on communication between modelling groups & JSC
common voice on modelling (for IPCC, climate services & funding agencies)
convey modelling needs to observing communities
dealing with and advise to supercomputing challenges and centres
science of data assimilation (including coupled), modelling aspects
of global and regional reanalyzes, and paleoclimatic research
• promote seamless prediction system, model evaluation, metrics and
use of ensembles
Membership: 2 Co-Chairs (1 independent, other from a WCRP model panel), 2
reps of other model panels, 4 from core projects + 1 from WDAC
CMIP5 : Framework for Climate Change
Modelling/Projections
 Promote a standard set of model simulations to :
 evaluate how realistic the models are in simulating the recent past
 provide projections of future climate change on a range of time scales
 understand factors responsible for model differences
 An important input to IPCC AR5
 Taylor et al. 2009, http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/
Near-Term :
(Next 30 years)
Decadal climate
predictability
Ocean initialization
Aerosol impacts
Regional climate
change (high resol)
& climate extremes
Air quality changes
(aerosols, chemistry)
Long-Term :
(1860 to 2100 & beyond)
Evaluation of climate models
(e.g. new satellite data)
Detection & attribution
Climate change scenarios
Climate sensitivity, radiative
forcing and physical
feedbacks (e.g. clouds)
Biogeochemical feedbacks
(e.g. carbon, chemistry)
CMIP5 participating groups (24 groups; 50+ models;
3 Mar 2012: 41 models available from 20 centers)
Primary Group
Country
Model
CSIRO-BOM
BCC
GCESS
CCCMA
DOE-NSF-NCAR
RSMAS
CMCC
Australia
China
China
Canada
USA
USA
Italy
ACCESS 1.0
BCC-CSM1.1
BNU-ESM
CanESM2, CanCM4, CanAM4
CESM1, CCSM4
CCSM4(RSMAS)
CMCC- CESM, CM, & CMS
CNRM/CERFACS
CSIRO/QCCCE
EC-EARTH
LASG-IAP & LASG-CESS
France
Australia
Europe
China
CNRM-CM5
CSIRO-Mk3.6
EC-EARTH
FGOALS- G2.0, S2.0 & gl
FIO
NASA/GMAO
NOAA GFDL
NASA/GISS
MOHC
NMR/KMA
INM
IPSL
MIROC
MPI-M
MRI
NCC
NCEP
China
USA
USA
USA
UK
Korea / UK
Russia
France
Japan
Germany
Japan
Norway
USA
FIO-ESM
GEOS-5
GFDL- HIRAM-C360, HIRAM-C180, CM2.1, CM3, ESM2G, ESM2M
GISS- E2-H, E2-H-CC, E2-R, E2-R-CC, E2CS-H, E2CS-R
Had CM3, CM3Q, GEM2-ES, GEM2-A, GEM2-CC
HadGEM2-AO
INM-CM4
IPSL- CM5A-LR, CM5A-MR, CM5B-LR
MIROC 5, 4m, 4h, ESM, ESM-CHEM
MPI-ESM- HR, LR, P
MRI- AGCM3.2H, AGCM3.2S, CGCM3, ESM1
NorESM1-M, NorESM-ME, NorESM1-L
CFSv2-2011
WCRP CORDEX
A Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment
http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/SF_RCMTerms.html
Generating an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate
projections for the majority of land regions of the globe,
including the two poles, based on a suitable sample of CMIP5
GCM projections.
Strong orientation towards user needs: impacts and adaptation
Coordinated Regional Climate
Downscaling (CORDEX)
•12 domains with a resolution of
0.44° (approx. 50x50km²)
•Focus on Africa
•High resolution ~0.11°x0.11°
for Europe (by some institutions)
Jones et al, The Coordinated Regional
Downscaling Experiment: CORDEX An
international downscaling link to CMIP5,
CLIVAR Exchanges, special issue, No56,
Vol. 16, No. 2, 2011
Example of CORDEX data available for Africa and
other regions: July to September mean precipitation
for 1998-2008. Four observational (top row),
accumulated 12-24 hour forecast from ERA-Interim
reanalysis, the ensemble mean and individual
Regional Climate Models
Working Group on Regional Climate
(2-way communication: science - users)
• coordination of WCRP research on regional climate information & services
• communication between WCRP, GFCS and Future Earth, point of contact
to regional climate information/service entities
• prioritization of WCRP regional climate research and prediction
• advice for impact assessment, decision making and climate services,
especially on water, health, food and disaster risk reduction
• oversee regional climate research initiatives such as CORDEX
• visibility of WCRP regional science and communication of advances
to climate service institutions (through web, reports, workshops, etc.)
• liaison with other programmes, communication of science priorities to
funding agencies, NGOs and development agencies
Membership: 2 Co-Chairs, 4 from core projects + experts in
regional climate downscaling, regional process research, regional climate
observations, climate prediction research or operation, change impact
assessment, climate service provision, adaptation/vulnerability and/or
socio-economic community
CMIP5 output is being served via a distributed archive
managed by the PCMDI-led Earth System Grid Federation
(ESGF)
Data Nodes (at major international climate research
centers)
Three Primary CMIP5 Data Portals
Node 1
Node
3
Node
2
BADC
Data
Portal
DKRZ
Data
Portal
PCMDI
Data
Portal
Local copy
of heavilyused data
Node 5
Node 4
Data Portal
Data Users (climate model analysts worldwide)
> 1 PetaByte of data already available!
Model & expt.
documentatio
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Climate system Historical Forecast Project
Specialized
experiments
92*12_A_SSG
CHFP: 18 participating groups
WGSIP promoted -> now a WG on WCRP level
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GLACE(2)
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Stratosphere
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Sea-Ice HFP
Reanalysis
Conference Themes
Status and Plans: Major international reanalysis
development, including broad disciplinary overviews (e.g.,
atmosphere, oceans, hydrology, cryosphere).
Validation and Metrics: Intercomparison and validation
studies; assessing the impact of the assimilation and analysis
increments; innovative diagnostics that characterize the
degree to which a reanalysis represents reality and ultimately
applicability for weather and climate research.
Data Assimilation: Data assimilation techniques and impact
on eventual reanalysis data products, especially producing a
climate quality time series.
Space and In Situ Observations: Studies on the quality and
stewardship of observations and their use in reanalyses and
exploiting new data types and sources.
Applications in Support of Climate, Weather and
Environmental Services: Innovative research using
reanalysis to study the weather, ocean, hydrology and
climate, including operational climate monitoring, study of
extremes and high impact weather, climate assessment and
end-to-end decision making studies.
International Collaborative Efforts: Projects and plans for
developing and using reanalysis to the benefit of the
international community.
WCRP Data Advisory Council
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focal point for observations and data in WCRP
advise JSC and WCRP Projects on observations and climate data
promote research using sustained observations and process studies
assessment of adequacy of observations and products for climate research
assessment of gaps in the observing system in cooperation with observation
programmes
promote assessment and comparison of climate-data products, including
from reanalyzes
promote research for improvement in the processing and reprocessing of
FCDRs
promote mechanisms for archival of, access to and analysis of data, and
metadata
promote standards for products, including global and regional reanalyzes
promote science of coupled data assimilation and coordinated approach to
reanalysis
liaise with GCOS, CEOS and CGMS
Membership: 2 Co-Chairs, 4 from core projects + 3 GCOS Panels +
representatives from WDAC, WGRC, IGBP, SOLAS, CEOS and CGMS
WCRP polar climate
predictability initiative
• Toronto workshop (April 2012):
focussing on implementation strategy
GIPPS
GIPPS
WWRP
PPP
WCRP
PCPI
SeaLevel R
Frontier Questions (+ science Qs):
How predictable is Arctic climate?
How will changes in the variability in the coming
decades, when variability is perhaps different, affect
predictability?
Imperatives:
Methods for proper initialization of the coupled system
Resolution requirements
Implementation Mechanisms:
Workshop to construct metrics…
• Bergen workshop
(October 2010):
science-driven
WCRP – WWRP (healthy) Cooperation
S2S – in hand, developing
YOTC - in hand
Polar (YOPP?) – WCRP still needs to do a lot for this WCRP
initiative to start making good sense, but the prospects are there
Significant joint work via WGNE, as Andy reported