Transcript Anthropogenic Climate Change in WCRP 2007

Anthropogenic Climate
Change in the
World Climate Research
Programme 2007
A. Henderson-Sellers Director, World
Climate Research Programme
WCRP Priorities
• Integration across WCRP (Anthropogenic Climate
Change, Atmos. Chemistry & Climate, Tropical Convection &
Monsoons, Decadal Prediction, Extremes, IPY, Sea level rise)
• Next generation weather and climate models
(Towards seamless prediction, computing resources)
• Value delivery for users & sponsors eg NMHSs
• Strategic partnering: WMO/WCP, THORPEX , GEO,
IGBP, ESSP and stakeholders (e.g. CGIAR challenge)
• New resources invested in
• Top priorities e.g.
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WCRP ACC Achievements
• IPCC AR4 CMIP3 archive: > 1000 users, 200 pubs
– WCRP is mainstay of WG1 (science) plus input WG2 & 3
– ESSP-WCRP Side Event at SBSTA-26, May 2007
WCRP % in IPCC WG1
100
%
80
60
40
91
20
66
39
68
0
Coord.
Author
Lead
Author
Contrib.
Author
Reviewer
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World Climate Research Programme
Objectives
♦ To determine the predictability of climate
♦ To determine the effect of human activities on climate
To facilitate analysis and
prediction of Earth system
variability & change for use
in an increasing range of
practical applications of
direct relevance, benefit &
value to society
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WCRP’s ACC Future Activities
• UNFCCC’s SBSTA input requested
– 23 July: open to all research organisations for COP-13 in Bali
– 21 September: 2 papers & action ‘bid’ on Nairobi Adaptation Plan
• GCOS observation & analysis; WCRP models, regions & downscaling
• WCRP has team meeting 10 July Perugia during IUGG
• IPCC AR5 planning input requested
– Scenarios,18-20 Sept, Noordwijkerhout, Netherlands; Aspen Statemt
• GCOS-WCRP-IGBP “Learning from AR4” Sydney
– October 4-6 2007; invites and survey out (please complete this!)
• ICTP-WCRP CMIP3/AR4 training 26-30 Nov; Trieste
• WCRP ACC-related plans for 2008
– Modelling Summit ~May; EMCWF
– Sea-level Rise II W’shop ~June; IOC
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ACC with IGBP and ESSP
• IGBP (physical scientists working with others)
– societal needs, for example in the area of climate
research as articulated at the recent WMO Conference
in Madrid and delivered by national meteorological
services, it is coming to be increasingly demanding of a
greater breadth of climate information and climate
science prompting co-operation such as in the joint
IGAC-SPARC Atmospheric Chemistry & Climate (AC&C)
• ESSP (climate scientists with outside partners)
– pressing needs for food security in a warming world
prompted CGIAR & ESSP to develop a Challenge
Programme on climate change and agriculture
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