Transcript Document

Future work
SB-23
17 May 2006
Niklas Höhne
MATCH work to date
• Open research process, leading to peer
reviewed papers and also building capacity
• Contributions to climate change can be
calculated effectively and robustly
• MATCH explored the influence of possible
choices for selected regions
• MATCH quantified the uncertainty of
contributions for one illustrative test case
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
Future work
• Two papers as first steps in a series
• Issues for a new paper combining earlier papers:
– Other test cases with longer time scales including the 19th century
– Uncertainty per region
– Finer resolution of sources (countries, inside countries or over sectors)
– Absolute and relative contributions
– Substantial new work on uncertainties for early emissions.
• Possible to explore further areas of research in the same mode of working
and building on the MATCH work so far. Many in the MATCH group plan to
continue their work on the scientific and methodological aspects related to
contributions to climate change.
• MATCH could report back to SBSTA in one to two years.
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
Computer tools
• Desirable: computer tool to calculate contributions to climate change,
user selects the policy choices such as time horizon and indicator.
• Several tools are already available,
– Java Climate Model, Ben Mathews (www.climate.be/jcm)
– FAIR model, Michel den Elzen (www.mnp.nl/fair)
– CAIT tool, Jonathan Pershing (http://cait.wri.org/)
• The MATCH group would not develop a new tool, but would be
available to assess and evaluate existing tools
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change