Transcript LIFE III – EC4MACS Kick- Off Meeting: 06/07 March 2007

Markus Amann
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
EC4MACS
European Consortium for Modelling of Air
Pollution and Climate Strategies
Overview of the 5 years work plan
LIFE III – EC4MACS Kick-Off Meeting 06/07 March 2007
Background
• Clean air and climate change are central fields of EU
environmental policy.
• New scientific findings demonstrate important interactions
and potentially large economic synergies between air
pollution control and greenhouse gas mitigation.
• Model analyses, based on latest scientific findings and
validated data, can provide valuable information for costeffective policy strategies.
• The European Commission envisages for 2011/12 a review
and revisions of their air quality legislation and the
European Climate Change Programme.
Partners
• IIASA (AT) – Coordinator, integrated assessment
• MNP/RIVM (NL) - Modelling of environmental impacts
• NTUA Athens (GR) – Energy projections
• Uni Bonn, EuroCare (DE) – Agricultural projections
• LUATh Thessaloniki (GR) – Transport modelling
• Mike Holland, AEAT, Metroeconomica (UK) – Economic
benefit analysis
• (MET.NO (NO) – Modelling of atmospheric chemistry and
transport)
• JRC-Ispra
• JRC-Sevilla
Objectives
• Providing scientific and economic analyes for the revision of
the EU Thematic Strategy on Air and the European Climate
Change Programme (ECCP)
• Improvement of existing models by including recent
scientific findings.
• Update of input data
• Accceptance of modelling tools and input data by
stakeholders
• Make modelling tools available to the public over the
Internet.
Expected outcomes
• Policy analysis on cost-effective strategies to reduce air
pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in the EU with
– Updated scientific insights
– Improved modelling tools
– Validated input data
• To support reviews of Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution
and ECCP
• Interim assessment in 2008
• Final assessment in 2011
Modelling tools
•
•
•
•
•
•
GAINS-Europe/Asia (IIASA)
PRIMES energy model for EU (NTUA)
CAPRI agricultural model for EU (UniBonn, EuroCare)
EMEP atmospheric chemistry and transport model (met.no)
CCE ecosystems impact assessment (MNP)
GEM-E3 general equilibrium macro-economic impacts
(NTUA)
• TREMOVE transport model (LAUTh)
• Benefit assessment (MH, AEAT, MetroEconomica)
• TM5 Hemispheric chemical transport model
• POLES global energy model
The EC4MACS model system
Global/
hemispheric
boundary
conditions
Agriculture
Atmosphere
Ecosystems
Costeffectiveness
Impacts
CAPRI
GEM-E3
Transport
Energy
European
policy drivers
TREMOVE
POLES
PRIMES
TM5
EMEP
CCE-CL
GAINS
BENEFITS
Tasks
• Update models, where necessary, to incorporate new
scientific insights
• Scientific peer review of all models
• Improve model interfaces
• Validate input data with stakeholders
• Produce interim assessment in 2009
• Produce final assessment in 2011
– Actual policy analyses not necessarily included in this project
• Project administration, financial reporting
General work plan
• 2007:
– Methodological improvements
• 2008:
– Data collection
– Feedbacks on methodological improvements
• 2009
– Interim assessment
– Methodology workshop
• 2010
– Uncertainty assessment
– Bilateral consultations on input data
• 2011
– Final assessment
General work plan
Methodology
Data
Dissemination
2007
Improvements
2008
30.4: Interim
documentation
Data collection
31.10. Consultation on
methodology over
Internet
2009
30.7. Revised
documentation
31.1.:
Documentation
of interim data
30.4. Internet access
31.10. Methodology
workshop
2010
30.4. Uncertainty
2011
Policy
application
30.4. Interim
assessment
report
Bilateral consultations
on data
30.7. Workshop on
baseline
30.4.
Documentation
31.7. Final
baseline
31.10. Final
policy scenarios
Main deliverables to Commission
by IIASA
• 31/7/2008:
Interim model methodology
• 31/7/2009:
Interim assessment
• 31/10/2010:
Uncertainties
• 30/7/2011:
Final baseline projections
• 30/9/2011:
Final methodology documentation
• 30/10/2011:
Policy scenarios
• 30/4/2012:
Final report
• 31/1, 31/7 each year:
• 31/7/2009:
Progress reports
Mid-term report
Main deliverables of each work package
to IIASA
• 30/4/2008: Report on interim modelling methodology
• 30/1/2009: Documentation of data for interim assessment
• 30/7/2009: Report on revised modelling methodology
• 30/4/2010: Report on uncertainty analysis
• 31/1/2011: Report on final modelling methodology
• 30/4/2011: Documentation of data for final assessment
• 31/10/2011: (Re-)analysis of final policy scenarios
Milestones for interaction with stakeholders
• 31/7/2007:
EC4MACS web site
• 31/10/2008: Internet consultation on interim methodology
• 30/4/2009:
Internet access to input data
• 31/10/2009: Stakeholders workshop on methodology
• 2009-2010: Bilateral consultations on input data
• 31/7/2010:
Stakeholders workshop on baseline projections
Tasks for the first year
• Methodological improvements
• Development of hard-wired model interfaces
• Any grand new ideas for additional analyses
• Testing of financial reporting routines