Transcript Document

Status of research
SB-23
17 May 2006
Luiz Pinguelli Rosa, Joyce Penner, Niklas Höhne
Overview
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Introduction to the MATCH process
Luiz Pinguelli Rosa
Analysing countries’ contribution to climate change:
Scientific and methodological choices
Niklas Höhne
Closure and scientific uncertainty
Joyce Penner
Possible future work of MATCH
Niklas Höhne
Demonstration of JCM, FAIR and CAIT
Ben Matthews / Niklas Höhne / Jonathan Pershing
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
Historical Background
In Kyoto, 1997, the Brazilian Proposal placed in focus the
historical emissions’ contribution to increase the global
temperature
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The calculation presented to support the proposal was
based on the available data of historical emissions from
each country after the Industrial Revolution
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The decay of additional GHG in atmosphere was
simulated by a superposition of exponential functions,
from Bern Model for calculating the gas concentration
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The climate response has been included trough another
superposition of exponential functions for calculating the
contribution of each country to temperature increase
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
Historical Background
The calculation presented to support the Brazilian Proposal
had some problems:
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The difficulty of having data of historical emissions from
each country
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The lack of land use changes emissions
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The need of including contributions of other GHG
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The use of simple superposition of exponential functions
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The need of considering non linear effects
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
MATCH process
UNFCCC process
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Two expert meetings
Coordinated modelling
exercise “ACCC”
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Ad-hoc group
Initiated by Brazil and UK
Two expert meetings so far
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
SBSTA 17 (Oct 2002)
• Work should be continued by the scientific community, in particular to
improve the robustness of the preliminary results and to explore the
uncertainty and sensitivity
• Be of a standard consistent with the practices of peer-reviewed published
science.
• The process should be inclusive, open and transparent.
• Capacity building: strongly encouraged Parties and institutions to facilitate
capacity-building in developing countries, including by hosting scientists from
developing countries
• Invited the scientific community, including IGBP, WCRP, IHDP and IPCC
to provide information on how they could contribute
• Encouraged scientists to undertake further work, to make the results of
their work publicly available and to report progress at SBSTA 20, June
2004 (side event).
• SBSTA decided to review the progress at its 23rd session (Nov 2005).
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
MATCH process
Objective:
• Assess methods for calculating the contribution of different emission
sources (e.g. regional, national or sectoral) to climate change and its
impacts, taking into account uncertainties, and the sensitivity of the
calculations to the use of different methods, models and methodological
choices.
Outputs:
• Provide clear guidance on the implications of the use of the different
scientific methods, models, and methodological choices
• Where scientific arguments allow, recommend one method/model/choice
or several possible methods/models/choices for each step of the calculation
of contributions to climate change, taking into account scientific robustness,
practicality and data availability
• Organization of expert meetings, workshops and a coordinated modelling
exercise
• Prepare papers to be published in peer reviewed scientific journals
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
MATCH process
Scientific Coordination Committee
Xiaosu Dai
National Climate Center, China
Michel den Elzen
RIVM, Netherlands
Jan Fuglestvedt (Cochair)
CICERO, Center for International Climate and
Environmental Research - Oslo, Norway
Jason Lowe
Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and
Research, UK
Joyce Penner (Co-chair
University of Michigan, USA
Michael Prather
University of California at Irvine, USA
Cathy Trudinger
CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Australia
Murari Lal
IIT, India
José Domingos Gonzalez Interministerial Committee on Global Climate Change,
Miguez
Brazil
Niklas Höhne (Secretary)
Ecofys, Germany
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
MATCH process
Developing country participation:
• Fund for travel costs of developing country experts sponsored by
governments of Germany, Norway, UK
Support unit:
• Ecofys under contract to UK Defra
Information:
• http://www.match-info.net
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
MATCH-info.net
• Background
• Organization
• Papers
• Expert meetings
• File exchange
• Discussion forum
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
Participation in addition to SCC
Atsushi Kurosawa
Atul Jain
Bård Romstad
Ben Matthews
Brian O’Neil
Christiano Pires de Campos
Fabian Wagner
Gregory Bodeker
Guoquan HU
Ian Enting
John van Aardenne
Luiz Gylvan Meira Filho
Luiz Pinguelli Rosa
Malte Meinshausen
Maria Silvia Muylaert de Araujo
Michael Schlesinger
Michiel Schaeffer
Natalia Andronova
Peter Stott
Promode Kant
Sarah Raper
Suzana Kahn Ribeiro
Stephen W. Wood
Wandera Ogana
Institute of Applied Energy, Tokyo, Japan
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA
CICERO, Oslo, Norway
Universite catholique de Louvain, Belgium
IIASA, Laxenburgm Austria
University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand
China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
The University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
University of Sao Paulo, Brazil
University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
University of Illinois, Urbana, USA
MNP/RIVM, Bilthoven, Netherlands
University of Illinois, Urbana, US
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, Exeter, UK
Indira Gandhi National Forest Academy, Dehradun, India
University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
University of Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand
University of Nairobi, Kenya
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
Individual scientific papers
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Pinguelli Rosa, Ribeiro, 1997: “The share of responsibility between developed and developing countries in climate
change, Greenhouse Gas Mitigation”. In Proceedings from the International Energy Agency Conference on GHG
Pinguelli Rosa, Ribeiro, 2001: “The present, past, and future contributions to global warming of CO2 emissions
from fuels”, Climatic Change
den Elzen, Schaeffer 2002: “Responsibility for past and future global warming: Uncertainties in attributing
anthropogenic climate change”, Climatic Change
Andronova, Schlesinger 2004: “Importance of Sulfate Aerosol in Evaluating the Relative Contributions of Regional
Emissions to the Historical Global Temperature Change”, Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies for Global Change
Pinguelli Rosa, Ribeiro, Muylaert, Campos, 2004: “Comments on the Brazilian Proposal and contributions to
global temperature increase with different climate responses - CO2 emissions due to fossil fuels, CO2 emissions
due to land use change”, Energy Policy
Muylaert, Cohen, Pinguelli Rosa, Pereira, 2004: “ Equity, responsibility and climate change” Climate Research
Muylaert, Campos, Pinguelli Rosa, 2005: “GHG historical contribution by sectors, sustainable development and
equity” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Campos, Muylaert, Pinguelli Rosa, 2005: “Historical CO2 emission and concentrations due to land use change of
croplands and pastures by country”, Science of the Total Environment
Trudinger, Enting, 2005: “Comparison of formalisms for attributing responsibility for climate change: Non-linearities
in the Brazilian Proposal approach”, Climatic Change
den Elzen, Schaeffer, Lucas, 2005: “Differentiating Future Commitments on the Basis of Countries’ Relative
Historical Responsibility for Climate Change: Uncertainties in the ‘Brazilian Proposal’ in the Context of a Policy
Implementation”, Climatic Change
Rive, Torvanger, Fuglestvedt 2005: “Climate agreements based on responsibility for global warming: periodic
updating, policy choices, and regional costs”, Global Environmental Change
Höhne, Blok, 2005: “Calculating historical contributions to climate change – discussing the ‘Brazilian Proposal’”,
Climatic Change
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
MATCH results
• Paper #1: Analysing countries’ contribution to climate
change: Scientific choices and methodological issues:
status of the work and first results
• Paper #2: Attributing a fraction of climate change to a
nation's historical emissions: closure and scientific
uncertainty
• Other capacity developed as inspiration of the
MATCH process:
– IVIG (Brazil) developed a detailed and flexible model of land-use
emissions which has recently been coupled with the JCM
carbon/climate model developed in UCL-ASTR (Belgium)
– A researcher from CMA (China) visited NIWA (New Zealand) for
an extended period to gain experience in modelling
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change
Overview
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Introduction to the MATCH process
Luiz Pinguelli Rosa
Analysing countries’ contribution to climate change:
Scientific and methodological choices
Niklas Höhne
Closure and scientific uncertainty
Joyce Penner
Possible future work of MATCH
Niklas Höhne
Demonstration of JCM, FAIR and CAIT
Ben Matthews / Niklas Höhne / Jonathan Pershing
Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change