Transcript ACRE - Amazon Web Services

The Atmospheric Circulation
Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE)
initiative
Dr Rob Allan,
ACRE Project Manager,
Climate Monitoring and Attribution Group,
Met Office Hadley Centre,
Exeter, Devon,
United Kingdom
QCCCE
What is ACRE?
ACRE is an international collaborative initiative led
by a consortium of:
• the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence
(QCCCE) in Australia
• the Met Office Hadley Centre in the UK
• the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental
Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado
What will ACRE do?
Seamlessly:
• Facilitate the recovery of historical instrumental surface
terrestrial and marine global weather observations
• to underpin 4D weather reconstructions (reanalyses) over
the last 200-250 years
• for climate applications and impacts needs worldwide.
It will produce:
• dynamically consistent, high resolution global historical 4D weather reconstructions at
2o latitude by 2o longitude spatial resolution every 6 hours using state-of-the-art
scientific capabilities (in the future, 1/2o spatial resolution)
• a baseline of 4D weather reconstructions that can be tailored and ‘downscaled’ for:
• regional to local climate applications, e.g., agricultural, environmental, societal,
physical
• climate impacts, e.g., risk of high impact phenomena
• direct weather input into biophysical and production models
• an historical baseline of global weather that can be used to constrain global climate
models, putting them in a much stronger position to look into the future at possible
implications and impacts of climate change.
Three surface input only historical
reanalyses generating 6-hourly 4D
atmospheric weather variables
20th Century Reanalysis Project: 1891-present
(supported in US by NOAA & DoE)
Surface Input Reanalysis for Climate Applications
(SIRCA) (1840s-2011)
North Atlantic-European Region: 1750-present
O
L
D
Global historical surface
daily to sub-daily
weather observations
W
E
A
T
H
E
R
and downscaling
QCCCE
Climate research,
applications & impacts
community needs
& direct feed into
biophysical models
Ecological
Phenological
Health & Disease
Reinsurance
Climate Monitoring
Model Validation
Environmental Assessments
Extremes, Impacts & Risks
Water resources
Agricultural
Forestry
Energy
Marine operations
Fisheries
Cultural landscapes &
built heritage
Data needs for ACRE-facilitated Historical Reanalyses of 4D weather conditions
ERA & NCEP
POTENTIAL
COVERAGE
World War 1
World War 2
Digitised Global Surface Observational Coverage (%)
‘PRIOR TO WORLD WAR 2,
AS MUCH SURFACE DATA HASN’T BEEN DIGITISED AS HAS BEEN’
DATA
RESCUE
(MEDARE
MedCLIVAR
IEDRO SIGN)
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
RECONSTRUCTIONS
OVER THE EARTH
NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICES
(ECSN, ETCCDI, VACS, CMA,
MeteoFrance)
GLOBE
TERRESTRIAL DATA
NCDC
http://www.ncdc.noaa.go
v/oa/ncdc.html
MARINE DATA
CDMP
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/cl
imate/cdmp/
R
E
C
L
A
I
M
GCOS AOPC/OOPC
Surface Pressure Working Group
International Surface Pressure Data Bank
ICOADS
http://icoads.noaa.gov/
ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/pub/Public/gcompo/ISPDv2.2/
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/ispd/v2.2/Station_Map/
HISTORICAL CLIMATE QUALITY REANALYSES
Activities in recovering, imaging and digitising historical
marine and terrestrial observations
•
•
•
•
•
•
2007/2009: British East India Company (EIC) logbooks (1780s-1830s) – held in the
British Library (imaging by British Library, digitised by CDMP in US) 900 of the 2,000 logs
have instrumental data [200K images] http://www.oldweather.org/examples/east-india-company
2008/2009: Extended World War 1 period logbooks (1914-1923) - held in the UK
National Archives (imaging by UK National Archives) 7,000 to 8,000 logs [300K+ images]
2007/2008: Printed/published logbooks of late 19th- early 20th Century Antarctic
expeditions plus ships of exploration – online plus held in the Met Office Library &
Archives (imaging & digitisation) http://www.oldweather.org/examples/TerraNova
2008: Inventory of historical Chinese and South China Sea instrumental weather
observations - an initiative in conjunction with Professor Robert Bickers, Department of
Historical Studies, Bristol University and Chinese Maritime Customs Project, to produce
an inventory of all the sources of historical Chinese and South China Sea region
terrestrial and marine daily to sub-daily meteorological data.
2008: British hydrographic and survey vessel remarks books (1834-1909) – held at the
UK Hydrographic Office (UKHO) (inventory of holdings in the archives of the UKHO)
about 6,000 remarks books
2009/2010: CoRRal: UK Colonial registers and Royal Naval Logbooks – held at The
National Archives (imaging and digitising logbooks of ships on voyages of discovery 17001850: ADM-55, and attached to the Hydrographic Survey 1830-1850) plus held at The
National Archives and the Met Office Archives (UK colonial meteorological registers,
journals and gazettes 1840-present). CoRRal: a Joint Information Systems Committee
(JISC) Digitisation Programme: Enriching Digital Resources funded project.
Global Historical Reanalyses Products
Each of the ACRE-facilitated global historical reanalyses will produce a 56* member ensemble
of some 68 4D weather variables every 6 hours at 2° latitude x 2° longitude spatial resolution
over the entire globe. The ensemble mean is taken as the best analysis.
Some major 4D weather variables produced by the reanalyses
Geopotential Height
Temperature
u wind
v wind
Pressure vertical velocity
Specific humidity
Relative humidity
At 19 Levels: (1000 hPa–100 hPa every 50 hpa)
Others at specific levels (eg, sigma) or over the depth of the atmospheric column include:
Surface pressure, Tropopause height, Precipitable water, Convective Avail. Pot. Energy, Convective
inhibition, Potential temp. Total ozone, Cloud water, Sensible heat flux, Latent heat flux, Volumetric soil
moisture, Accum. Snow, Downward long wave flux, Upward long wave flux, Upward short wave flux,
Downward short wave flux, Precipitation rate, Convective precip. Rate, Ground heat flux, Land cover, Ice
concentration, Water runoff, Potential evaporation rate, Planetary boundary layer height, Albedo, Total
cloud cover, Zonal momentum flux, Meridional momentum flux.
* started in November of year before, 56 random initial conditions produced from integrations of the T62 28 sigma level
model forced by SSTs
MOHC, CRU, SU,
(Blue shadings are for
KNMI
UBERN, ETHZ
ECMWF, POL SENABAR
potential projects submitted
BALTEX
to funding bodies)
ECED/ Météo-France
ECSN
EuroCryoClim
NiCHE
NOAA ESRL/CIRES
National
Marine
Sanctuaries
CDMP SIGN
NCDC
Med - CLIVAR & MEDARE
Chinese Maritime
Customs Project
US Colonial
Era Data Study
ICCSIR
CHANGE
QCCCE
Chilean Chapter
UCT
USQ
NIWA
BoM NCC, CMAR
Southeastern Australia Chapter
International Projects, Sources & Repositories linked to ACRE
IEDRO
ICOADS
ISPD
WMO DARE
RECLAIM GLOBE GLOSS ETCCDI VACS
ERA-CLIM EURO4M
ICHM
ACRE-linked Climate Applications and Impacts Projects
Extremes, climate modes and reanalysis-based approaches to agricultural resilience:
Funder: Land & Water Australia, Managing Climate Variability Innovation Call project,
commenced in September 2008. FUNDING TO ACRE
Reconstructing pre-20th century rainfall, temperature and pressure for South-eastern
Australia using palaeoclimate, documentary and early weather station data: Funder:
Proposal for an Australian Research Council Linkage Project 2009
SENABAR "Storminess since 1800 as interpreted from European and North Atlantic
BARometric pressure variability": Funder: To be submitted as a proposal to the 1
December 2008 Standard Grant round of UK NERC (Natural Environment Research Council)
ERA-CLIM: Development of a European Reanalysis Capability for Global Climate
Monitoring: Funder: Proposal to the EC FP7 – Seventh Framework Programme
Cooperation Theme 9 “Space”
EURO4M: European Reanalysis and Observations for Monitoring: Funder: Proposal to the
EC FP7 – Seventh Framework Programme Cooperation Theme 9 “Space”
CHANGE for Africa - Climate Helps Africans Negotiate Greater Efficiencies: Funder:
Proposal to the EC FP7 – Seventh Framework Programme Cooperation, Area 6.1.1.5:
Climate change natural and socio-economic impacts
Chilean Chapter of ACRE: Funder: Proposal to the EC FP7 - Seventh Framework Programme
Cooperation.
Devon Community Climate Change Local Histories Project (CCHP): Funder: UK Heritage
Lottery Fund, commenced in September 2008. NO FUNDING TO ACRE
New partners in ACRE
Early Canada Environmental Data/Network in Canadian History & Environment (ECED/NiCHE)
(http://niche.uwo.ca/early-canada-environmental-data.html):
NiCHE brings together historians, geographers, and other researchers who study nature and humans in
Canada's past. It offers a forum for the field, support collaboration among scholars, and ensure that this
research is shared with policymakers, scientists, and the Canadian public. ECED is a component of
NiCHE, and its aims are:
• to assemble digital resources that facilitate the study of historical data on Canadian environments
• to design tools and explore different methods to work with such data
• to bring together existing datasets and to create new databases.
This partnership will aid ACRE’s needs to link into ongoing Canadian historical data and research
activities plus their outreach and outputs to community and user needs.
The Sea Around Us Project (SAUP) (http://www.seaaroundus.org/):
ACRE is exploring a potential collaboration with this initiative. SAUP is investigating the impact of
fisheries on the world's marine ecosystems. This is achieved by using a Geographic Information System
(GIS) to map global fisheries catches from 1950 to the present, under explicit consideration of major
critical habitats of fish, marine invertebrates, marine mammals and other components of marine
biodiversity. The data presented, which are freely available, are meant to support studies of global
fisheries trends and the development of sustainable, ecosystem-based fisheries policies.
PROJECTED/POTENTIAL TIMELINE
Mid-2009: The 20th Century Reanalysis Project: 1891 to present
Version 1: 1908-1958: Available – we have a terabyte disc of ensemble means
Version 2: 1891-2008 available Mid-2009
Mid-2009: British East India Company (EIC) logbooks (1780s-1830s) Imaged &
Digitised
2009-2010: Final version of HadISST2
2010-2011: Extended World War 1 period logbooks (1914-1923) Imaged &
Digitised
2009-2011: Early to mid-19th Century Reanalysis
(with DoE and NOAA support)
Version 3: mid-19th – 21st century
would need all data by August 2010
improved version of NCEP model at higher resolution
=> hurricanes, high impact phenomena?
potentially available in 2012
201?: British hydrographic and survey vessel remarks books (1834-1909)
Imaging & Digitisation
201?: North Atlantic-European Region mid18th-early 19th Century Reanalysis:
1750/1800 to present
THE FUTURE POTENTIAL
Historical surface observations input-only reanalysis of the 1938 Atlantic
‘Long Island Express’ Hurricane: using additional HURDAT data and NCEP
NWP T254 (1/2 degree spatial resolution) model
ACRE Project Manager
Dr Rob Allan
Climate Monitoring and Attribution Group,
Met Office Hadley Centre
E-mail: [email protected]
Alternative E-mail: [email protected]
ACRE WWW Site: http://www.met-acre.org/
Old Weather WWW Site: http://www.oldweather.org/
Phone: +44 (0)1392 886904
Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681
Address: Met Office
FitzRoy Road
Exeter EX1 3PB
U.K.